Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.

[Seattle]

Districts 7 (downtown, Queen Anne, and Magnolia) and 3 (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area) will shrink, particularly 7. My guess is Magnolia goes to 6 (Ballard and Northwest Seattle), although 6 will likely shrink a bit.

5 (North Seattle) will have to grow the most, followed by 1 (West Seattle), 4 (Northeast Seattle, U District, Wallingford), and 2 (South Seattle). The latter two probably only grow a bit, but that's challenging for 1 as its borders are perfectly aligned with the Duwamish. It'll likely have to take all of SoDo and creep up into Pioneer Square. 2 is easy, it'll eat 3's area south of I90.
Link to map:http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/~/media/depts/elections/elections/maps/seattle-city-council-maps/seattle-city-council-districts.ashx

[Seattle]

I wonder if Issaquah city councilor Tola Marts drops down to run in LD-5 if Mallet runs. Or perhaps he'd challenge Rodne or Graves anyway.

No one's mentioned her in the other thread, but popular LD-47 rep Pat Sullivan could make a run for it.
I'm really surprised that moderate (& young) Joe Fain isn't taking a stab at it. Maybe he thinks he wouldn't make it to the top two.

[Seattle]

Bgwah in another forum pointed out that Washington state OFM released their 2017 population estimates for smaller entities, like legislative districts!

And so now we have a picture of how Seattle's explosive growth will shape redistricting come 2020.
Based on a population of 7,310,300, each district should have 149,190 people.

Districts by numeric and percent growth between 2010-2017:

1. 43rd (Capitol Hill, First Hill, Central Area, U District),     173,641, 36,389, 26.51%
2. 36th (South Lake Union, Belltown, Queen Anne, Ballard),  167,352, 30,105, 21.94%
3. 1st (Bothell, Juanita, unincorporated Snoho),                   159,308, 22,072, 16.08%
4. 37th (Pioneer Square, South Seattle, Skyway),            157,001, 19,809, 14.44%
5. 21st (Edmonds, Mukilteo, Mill Creek),                             155,896, 18,636, 13.58%
6. 18th (Exurban Clark County),                                         154,432, 17,215, 12.55%
7. 9th (Pullman, rural counties, West Pasco),                       153,937, 16,714, 12.18%
8. 44th (Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Mill Creek),                   153,400, 16,154, 11.77%
9. 5th (North Bend, Sammamish, Issaquah),                       153,230, 16,020, 11.68%
10. 2nd (Rural Pierce Co, Lacey, Yelm),                               152,987, 15,785, 11.51%
11. 22nd (Olympia, Lacey),                                                152,822, 15,583, 11.36%
12. 8th (Richland, Kennewick),                                           152,477, 15,275, 11.13%
13. 31st (Exurban and rural King/Pierce)                             152,397, 15,183, 11.07%
14. 17th (East Vancouver, Battleground),                            152,203, 14,973, 10.91%
15. 48th (Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue),                             151,660, 14,434, 10.52%
16. 34th (West Seattle, Burien, Vashon Island)                151,238, 14,030, 10.23%
....
22. 46th (NE Seattle, Northgate, Shoreline, Kenmore)      149,079, 11,826, 8.62%

[Seattle]

Here you go: http://ofm.wa.gov/pop/smallarea/default.asp

Im surprised to see some far flung suburbs and exurbs growing quickly too. Looks like tract housing is all the rage again in suburban Snohomish county. Boo.

[Seattle]

Definitely. Seattle has enough people for 4.78 districts and will probably be just below 5 for the census.
There will be at least 6 districts based in Seattle, and likely a 7th taking a small 20-30k remainder (like the 11th and 32nd currently do).

I think the casualty district will come from the Olympic Peninsula/Coast/SW Washington.
The 19th (Gray's Harbor, Pacific, and Longview) was the slowest growing +1.19%, while the 24th (Olympic Peninsula) and 35th (Mason County) were bottom 10. Also the 20th grew pretty slowly (Lewis/Clark/Thurston counties).

[Seattle]

In a shock turn of events, the Seattle Times is endorsing Jon Grant.

I'm certainly not complaining but this a shock from the stiffs at the Times editorial board.

It really isn't. They're endorsing the candidate they perceive to be the most anti-density. (See Murakami endorsement (who actually is anti-density), Durkan endorsement (again, not at all so)).
They did the same with Sara Nelson (plus for other reasons), even though both her and Grant are not actually so.
Suburban Times strikes again.

[Seattle]

I think Mosqueda has it in the bag.
She'll get the vast majority of Nelson voters.

I hope Moon wins, but I think it'll be difficult. It would be nice to get some polling.

[Seattle]

Definitely, especially with the Sound Transit witch hunt turning up nothing. Even that stunt Senate Republicans pulled today is too lazy of an attempt (and also to late to define state Dems and too soon to be a bombshell that affects votes).

Still waiting on a mayoral poll.... tick tock...

[Seattle]

This: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/sound-transit-misled-lawmakers-on-tax-plan-republican-led-senate-panel-says/

That poll seems pretty junky. I figure we should at least get an Elway poll.

[Seattle]

Mine:

Mayor: Molly Moon jk, Cary Moon
Council: Teresa Mosqueda and Lorena Gonzalez
Attorney: Pete Holmes
Port: Ryan Caulkins, Ahmed Abdi (Cool Somalian former refugee, even though I like little Gregoire), and Preeti Sridhar
County Exec: and the future governor's best hair award goes to.... Dow Constantine!
County Council: Rod Dembowski

[Seattle]

Preeti Sridhar, that’s it. That’s the third one.

Didn’t know Dembowski’s district extended into Seattle.

Yeah, most of northeast Seattle.

[Seattle]

Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.

[Seattle]

Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.

Seattle: 123,351 (27.00%)
LD-45: 31,821 (34.35%)

Higher turnout at this time than for the primary. Next update comes at 8PM, with the first dump of results. I wish they'd continue to update results throughout election night, as counting continues, instead of waiting until 4PM the next day.

[Seattle]

Turnout as of 8PM yesterday,

Seattle: 94,347    (20.65% turnout)
LD-45: 27,060 (29.21% turnout)

I'll post today's 12PM update when it's available.

Seattle: 123,351 (27.00%)
LD-45: 31,821 (34.35%)

Higher turnout at this time than for the primary. Next update comes at 8PM, with the first dump of results. I wish they'd continue to update results throughout election night, as counting continues, instead of waiting until 4PM the next day.

King county surprised with a 5PM update:

Seattle: 131,607 (28.81%)
LD-45: 32,416 (34.99%)

Eagerly awaiting results... Likely Durkan win, thinking Dhingra smashes Englund after watching the East Coast over-performance.

[Seattle]

Ooph, Moon down 60.6-40.4, no way she can make that up. Final result will probably be 54-46.

[Seattle]

Mosqueda destroying Grant 61.5-38.5, Gonzalez cruising to a 67.5-32.5 victory over Murakami.

[Seattle]

I think as in 2010, the state will be hit less drastically by the impending wave.

Mark Miloscia is probably DOA given LD-30 voted out two R incumbents in 2016, plus the heavy D tilt of the district. I also think Joe Fain will go down, though if anyone survives, it's him.

I'm less familiar with the suburban districts in Pierce county that Ds made major gains in during 2004-2008, only to lose them in 2010-2014.

Another race to watch will be Jim Walsh, the R who barely won on coastal LD-19 in 2016. Can the Dems win back this Demasaur district?

Finally, the lovely Matt Manweller is facing several sexual harassment allegations in LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake), a safe R district. I think he'll probably ending up resigning, but if he doesn't he could very well lose in the primary between multiple Rs and a D.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/state-rep-matt-manweller-has-faced-sexual-misconduct-complaints-from-students/

[Seattle]

Baumgartner (R, LD-6) is not running for reelection to the state senate and will instead run for Spokane County auditor. I already had this as Likely R, but I think it now deserves Tilt R rating. Depending on who runs, this could be a great pick up opportunity. I believe it was Trump +1.5 or so.

[Seattle]

I'm dumb, I meant LD-6. Derp.

But yes, both LD-25 House seats will be prime pick up opportunities in a Trump +1.3 district that voted for Obama twice (45.2-46.5).

Do you think Matt Shea has any chance of being voted out?

[Seattle]

Totally missed that!
However, former rep Chad Magendanz who unsuccessfully ran to unseat Mullet in 2016 is running to replace Rodne.
Still probably the strongest current House pick up opportunity.

Also, a watered down version of automatic voter registration was passed yesterday. Those applying for/renewing their enhanced driver's licenses are automatically registered (and so will a couple of other state departments like veteran affairs, agriculture, and military stuff).

[Seattle]

This whole saga renews my rage... at Seattle's absurd zoning.
The homelessness crisis would be so much more manageable if this city stopped treating the vast majority of its mass as a sanctuary for the endangered single family home.

Plus, Id love to see the pursed face of some Laurelhurst wine mom as a triplex goes up next to her "character" home.

[Seattle]

Did publicunofficial get banned?

Didn't realize Joyce McDonald is retiring. The 25th is a rare 2x Obama suburban seat that Trump won.

Kind of frustrating that Times article doesn't actually spell out the retirements. Couldn't find any other details searching google on my phone.

[Seattle]

Whaaaat... In addition to GoodSpaceGuy running for senate, Rocky de la Fuente is as well. Ironically, Cantwell has yet to file her paperwork (lol).

Cantwell is going to win 65-35 at this rate, if this is all the GOP has to offer:
http://bryantforussenate.com/
http://higgins4senate.com/index.html
https://keithswankforsenate.com/

[Seattle]

Filing deadline has closed.

30 (!!) candidates filed to run for the senate race That's going to be one hell of a ballot.
As mentioned before, Rocky de la Fuente is running, make it 3 (?, CA, FL, and WA) states he's filed in... how is that legal?

In addition, GoodSpaceGuy (perennial nutty candidate), Alex Tsimerman (nut job wacko who was banned from Seattle city hall for being physically disruptive), and Susan Hutchinson (former TV anchor and most likely opponent) filed.

Other notes:

WA-4 will have a D-R contest for the first time since 2012. Only Newhouse (R) and Christine Brown (D) filed.

WA-9 may see a D-D, Smith-Smith contest between Adam and Sarah, if she can get more votes than perennial candidate Doug Basler (R) in the primary.

LD-5 Pos 1: Chad Magendanz is trying to get back into the House after losing to Senator Mark Mullet in 2016.
LD-26 Senate: Jan Angel (R) last minute retires, Marty McClendon (R, on the Pierce County Commission) to face likely D challenger Emily Randall. Very good D pick up opportunity in a district Trump/Clinton tied in.
LD-30 Pos. 2: Mike Pellicciotti (D) is being re-challenged by Linda Kochmar (R) who he unseated in 2016.
LD-34 Senate: A true clowncar in the making. This open seat features like 6 Ds, most notably, Shannon Braddock who in 2015 lost by 39 votes to current Seattle city councilmember Lisa Herbold. Freshly defeated former Burien Councilmember and Trump-supporting "Independent" Debi Wagner is running, as well as Her friend, Darla Green (R), who lost in a landslide to liberal Burien councilmember Nancy Tosta are also running. This is Icespear's new district.
LD-35 Senate: This looks like a repeat of 2016's D-D runoff between Tim Sheldon (DINO) and Irene Bowling (D).
LD-48 Senate: Rodney Tom (DINO) is back and trying to unseat Patty Kuderer (D)

Unchallenged by major party districts:

LD-2 Pos. 2: J.T. Wilcox (R) unchallenged
LD-11 Pos. 1 and 2: Both Zack Hudgins (D) and Steve Bergquist (D) are unchallenged
LD-13 Senate: Judy Warnick (R) unchallenged
LD-22 Pos. 1 and 2: Laurie Dolan (D) and Beth Doglio (D) face Independent/Libertarian, no Rs on ballot
LD-23 Pos. 1 and 2: Sherry Appleton (D) faces a "No party preference" candidate, Drew Hansen (D) is unchallenged, no Rs on ballot
LD-27 Pos. 2: Donald Golden (D) faces an independent, no R on ballot
LD-29 Senate and Pos. 2: Steve Conway (D) faces an independent, no R on ballot, Steve Kirby (D) is unchallenged
LD-33 Pos. 1: Tina Orwall (D) is unchallenged
LD-34 Pos. 1 and 2: Eileen Cody (D) and Joe Fitzgibbon (D) are unchallenged
LD-36 Senate, Pos. 1, and 2: Reuven Carlyle (D), Noel Frame (D), and Gael Tarleton (D). No Rs running here, but the Libertarian Party has put up a full slate!
LD-37 Pos. 1 and 2: Sharon Tomiko Santos (D) goes unchallenged, Eric Pettigrew (D) faces either a no party or independent, no Rs on ballot
LD-38 Pos. 1 and 2: June Robinson (D) will face an independent party cadidate, Mike Sells (D) is unchallenged, no Rs on ballot
LD-40 Pos. 2: Jeff Morris (D) is unchallenged
LD-48 Pos. 1 and 2: Vandana Slater (D) is unchallenged, Amy Walen (D), mayor of Kirkland faces fellow D, Cindi Bright
LD-49 Pos. 1 and 2: Sharon Wylie (D) and Monica Stonier (D) are unchallenged

Ds did a fantastic job, putting up candidates in all but one Senate and House position. Rs.... not so much.