Washington state megathread

[Seattle]

And importantly, who will succeed her as Majority Leader?

This was from the ST article I found:

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Also, why Joe Fain (R) has held on in +20 Clinton district:

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[Seattle]

He's got a seemingly strong challenger, but if there's a suburban R survivor, I think it's him. The R holding one of the House positions is probably on track to lose. A correction, LD-47 is only Clinton +16.
Milloscia is going to be eviscerated in LD-30, which is Clinton +21.

[Seattle]

Wtf is wrong with some of the og suburban whites in Burien??
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/attack-on-burien-mayor-over-citys-sanctuary-city-policy-investigated-as-hate-crime/

It was very satisfying to see all the cretin MAGA challengers and incumbents defeated last November, but it’s disgusting to see continued anti-Latinx behavior from members of the Burien community.

[Seattle]

And strange... for a city that voted 70-30D in 2016 and is close to minority majority (if not already there?).

Anyway, I met Tina Podladowski (the Washington Dems chair) at a family friend’s fundraiser last week. I have to say I was very impressed. She seems to be very organized, dedicated, and has a great smart strategy to further state and congressional Ds.

She says envisions +2 in the senate (LD-26, LD-30) and +8 in the House (+2 in LD-5, LD-6, LD-19, LD-26, the suburban Vancouver one, the Auburn/Kent one, and O’Ban’s)

[Seattle]

One of LD-25, not O’Ban’s. Whoops.
I think she’s kind of conservative in her House predictions. We very well could have a VA style wave. There are a lot of pickup opportunities.

[Seattle]

111,358 ballots have already been returned in King County out of 1.3 million registered voters with 10 days left. Mailed my very boring (D) ballot yesterday. Still waiting for it to be processed.

I'm very interested to see how the paid postage boosts turnout. I don't remember what normal August midterm primary turnout is, but I'm going to guess we'll hit 45% turnout.

[Seattle]

Just filled out my King county ballot! Voted for Good Space Guy XD

You're a Washingtonian!?

I thought about Goodspaceguy or Rocky de la Fuente.... but couldn't pull the sh**tvoting trigger.

[Seattle]

I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/28: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%

[Seattle]

I've started keeping track of the King County early returns:
7/27: 111,358 - 8.68%
7/27: 113,922 - 8.80%
7/30: 146,183 - 11.39%
7/31: 177,536 - 13.83%

To continue (no updates on weekends)

8/1: 198,570 - 15.47%
8/2: 220,799 - 17.00%
8/3: 241,548 - 18.82%
8/6: 286,361 - 22.31%
8/7: 351,465 - 27.38% (12PM update)

There will be a 6PM update, though ballots are collected at drop box locations until 8PM. And of course there will probably be around 100k that are not collected until after today.

[Seattle]

Well, these results are objectively terrible for legislative and congressional Rs....
I keep checking seats I had pegged as lean or tilt R... that Ds are pulling 50%+ of the vote against incumbents. Obviously the following is subject to change, considering the many votes left out there. The dynamic of partisanship and later returning ballots is still not greatly understood in WA. For some reason, unlike in CA, they're not nearly as homogeneously left or D leaning.

Since the congressional races are already getting plenty of attention, the LDs: The shockers are bolded.

LD-1 (Bothell): Safe D
LD-2.1(Rural Pierce/Thurston): 55R-45D, LD-2.2: Uncontested R
LD-3 (Spokane): Safe D
LD-4.1 (Spokane Valley): Shea (R) 54 - 46 Cummings (D), 4.2: Likely R

LD-5 (North Bend/Snoqualmie): Both Ramos and Callan (D) lead 54-46 over former rep Magendanz (R) and Graves (R) respectively. For perspective, Both Graves and Rodne lead ever so
slightly in the 2016 primary.

LD-6 (Spokane + burbs): !!!! Ds lead in all positions- Senate: Lewis (D) 51 - 49 Holy (R), 6.1: Murano (D) 53 - 47 Volz (R), 6.2: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Combined Rs

LD-7 (NE WA): Safe R
LD-8 (Richland/Kennewick): Safe R
LD-9 (SE WA): Safe R

LD-10 (Island Co + Stanwood): !!! 10.1: McMullen (D) 51 - 49 Smith (R). 10.2: Paul (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hayes (R).

LD-11 (Tukwila/Renton): Uncontested Ds
LD-12 (Wenatchee/Chelan): Safe R
LD-13 (Ellensburg + Moses Lake): Senate: Uncontested R, the rest Safe R
LD-14 (Yakima Co./Klickitat): Safe R
LD-15 (Yakima): Safe R
LD-16 (Walla Walla + Pasco): Safe R

LD-17 (Suburban Vancouver): 17.1: Tanisha (D) + minor D 51.5 - 48.5 Kraft (R), 17.2: Harris (R) 54 - 46 Jiles, Sr. (D).

LD-18 (Exurban Vancouver/Clark Co.): Ds did weirdly better here than in LD-17- 18.1: Vick (R) 50.5 - 49.5 Thobaben (D) and 18.2: Gillespie (D) 53.5 - 46.5 Hoff (R).

LD-19 (SW WA, ancestral D country): 19.1: Frasier (D) 51.5 - 48.5 Walsh (R), 19.2: Safe D

LD-20 (Lewis Co): Safe R
LD-21 (Edmonds/Mukilteo): Safe D
LD-22 (Olympia): Safe D
LD-23 (Bainbridge Island + Bremerton): Safe and Uncontested D
LD-24 (Olympic Peninsula): Safe D

LD-25 (Puyallup): In 25.1: the combined Ds 53 - 47 Combined Rs, with Jamie Smith 27%) barely ahead of Julie Door (26%) for the second position, 25.2 features Duthie (D) 46.5 - 46 Gildon (R) - 7.5 Witting ("Independent To Party"

LD-26 (Port Orchard/Gig Harbor): Senate: Randall (D) 51 - 45 McClendon (R) - 4 Scheidler (I), 26.1: FitzPatrick (D) 50.5 - 49.5 Combined Rs, 26.2: Combined Rs 51 - 44 Stanford (D) - 5 Padilla ("People over Party")

LD-27 (Tacoma): Safe D

LD-28 (Lakewood/JBLM): 28.1: Leavitt (D) 53 - 47 Muri (R), similar to LD-5, Muri led barely in the 2016 primary... not a good sign for him. 28.2: Kilduff (D) is sitting 59-41 right now, Safe D

LD-29 (South Tacoma/Parkland): Safe or Uncontested D. David Sawyer, the pariah incumbent D in 29.1, who is accused of sexually assaulting multiple women, is in third right now by 1%. Hopefully he stays there.

LD-30 (Federal Way): Senate: Combined Ds 51.5 - 48.5 Miloscia (R), In 30.1 & 30.2, "vulnerable" D incumbents Pellicciotti and Reeves are destroying, 58-42 and 62.5-37.5 (!) respectively.

LD-31 (Rural Pierce + King Cos.): All race Likely R

LD-32 (Shoreline/Lynwood): Senate: safely D vs D, 32.1 is Safe D and 32.2 is currently just 4 votes away from being D vs D.

LD-33 (Burien/Kent): Safe or Uncontested D
LD-34 (West Seattle + Vashon Island): Senate is D vs D (Nguyen and Shannon Braddock, who in 2015 almost won a city council seat against Lisa Herbold), the rest are uncontested D.

LD-35 (Mason Co.): In the Senate re-match: Bowling (D) 39 - 35 Sheldon (DINO) - 26 Combined Rs, 35.1: Griffey (R) 51.5 - 48.5 Thomas (D), 35.2: Daggett (D) 52 - 48 MacEwen (R).

LD-36 (Ballard + Queen Anne): Super Safe D
LD-37 (Central District + SE Seattle): Super Safe D
LD-38 (Everett): Senate is currently D vs D (McCoy and Overstreet), with the R behind by .75%, the rest are Safe or Uncontested D

LD-39 (Rural Snohomish/Skagit/Whatcom): Senate race is a mess: Combined Rs 55 - 40.5 Joens (D) - 5 Rabieh (I). Keith Wagoner (R), the appointed incumbent is beating Elizabeth Scott (R), the position 2 incumbent by about 3%, 39.1: Combined Rs 51.5 - 48.5 Lewis (D), 39.2: Eslick (R) 52 - 48 Halvorson (D).

LD-40 (Bellingham/Anacortes/Mt Vernon/San Juans): There's a clown car in 40.1, with the potential for D vs D, the third place D is 1% behind the second place R. no one has more than 28%! 40.2 is Uncontested D.
LD-41 (Bellevue/Mercer Island): 41.1 is Safe D, 41.2 is D vs D (Weiker and Thai).

LD-42 (Whatcom Co.): !!!! Senate: Combined Ds 54 - 46 Ericksen (R), 42.1: Boneau (D) 51 - 49 combined Rs, 42.2: Shewmake (D) 52.5 - 47.5 Buys (R).

LD-43 (Wallingford + Capitol Hill): Super Safe D

LD-44 (Mill Creek/Snohomish): Senate: Safe D, Hobbs (D) leads 57 - 40 (R) -3 (L), 44.1: Safe D, Lovick leads 59-41, 44.2: Lean D, Mead (D) 55 - 45 Harmsworth (R), another R incumbent in poor shape...

LD-45 (Kirkland/Woodinville/Sammamish): Safe D, Manka has this on lockdown already
LD-46 (NE Seattle): Super Safe D

LD-47 (Auburn/Kent/Maple Valley): Perhaps the last Seattle area R in the Senate: Fain (R) 54 - 46 Das (D), 47.1: Hargrove (R) 50 - 47.5 Entenmen (D) - 2.5 Dillon (I). 47.2: Safe D, Sullivan (D) 58 - 42 Combined Rs.

LD-48 (Bellevue/Kirkland): Senate: Kuderer (D) 59 - 30 Rodney (DINO), the rest are Safe or Uncontested D
LD-49 (Vancouver): Uncontested D

[Seattle]

Right now, just counting Ds that lead in R held seats (excluding Tim Sheldon), Ds would gain 17(!) in the house and 4 in the Senate.

[Seattle]

It looks like both WA-2 and WA-9 will be D vs D contests. Sarah Smith has pulled ahead (which is impressive, considering she was down by around 3% yesterday). The D in WA-2 has led since yesterday, but it's rather tenuous. I think it'll grow though.

[Seattle]

(bump)

So now that it’s been a month anyone got any predictions/thoughts?

Haven't heard too much lately. I plan to canvas/phonebank for legislative races and WA-08 in October, so maybe I'll hear something there.

I tagged along with my mom to a fundraiser for Inslee (at Brady Walkinshaw's grandma's house) earlier this month.

I think he'd like to run for president, but knows that he's got a very slim chance of going anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if he instead runs for a third term. Which would definitely delay the eventual Constantine - Ferguson primary battle.

[Seattle]

Fain is the most moderate Senate R, so it’s no surprise he’s been able to hang on and build a suburban-friendly profile. He did decently well in the primary. But I just find it tough to see how he can survive a Trump, D+10 midterm. Mona Das, his opponent isn’t bad either.

[Seattle]

Here’s the Seattle Times article with more details:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/woman-says-washington-state-sen-joe-fain-raped-her-in-2007-fain-denies-allegation/

Fain is calling for an investigation, as are other prominent R senators.

[Seattle]

So it doesn't get lost in the early vote thread:

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I still haven't voted! Oops! Will probably do so on Saturday.

[Seattle]

Finally voted last night. Wow, never have I seen so many unopposed judge positions... 16/17.
Straight D ticket, Yes on all but the Sugar Tax prohibition.

[Seattle]

Saw on DKE that Spokane is now at 34% turnout - is that true? Absolutely wild what’s going on out there

Higher actually, as of 10/31: 118,061   36.87%!
Stunning turnout. I can't see how this is good for CMR, she's not exactly a get-me-to-the-polls inspiring kind of person (not saying it's good for Brown either, but I feel like the downside lies with CMR).

[Seattle]

A quick legislative rundown.
Looks like the GOP may have averted a complete disaster, but they're on track to lose seats in both the senate and house. There are a lot of very close races and considering that there's likely still a good 20% of the vote left to count, more substantial gains could occur.

LD-5: +2
Both Ds lead, Bill Ramos (52.5) to Chad Magendanz (47.5) and Lisa Callan (53) to Paul Graves, incumbent (47)

LD-6: +0/+1
All Rs currently lead. Jeff Holy (R), senate, is probably safe. Mike Volz (R) leads Kay Murano (D) 53-47, Jenny Graham (R) leads Dave Wilson (D) 50.3-49.7, which could be a potential flip)

LD-10: +0 to +2
Norma Smith (R) leads Scott McMullen (D) 52.5-47.5. Dave Paul (D) leads Dave Hayes (R) 50.3-49.7.

LD-17: +0/+1, definitely a disappointing result for Ds
Both Rs lead. Vicki Kraft (R) leads Tanisha Harris (D) 50.6-49.4. Paul Harris (R) is safe.

LD-18: +0/+1
All Rs in the lead. Larry Hoff (R) leads Kathy Gillespie 52-48. Brandon Vick (R) leads Chris Thobaben (D) 55-45.

LD-19: +0/+1, Demosaurs on the decline, but not dead.
Both incumbents lead. Jim Walsh (R) leads Erin Frasier (D) 50.7-49.3. Brian Blake (D) leads Joel McEntire (R) 54-46.

LD-25: +0 to +2, another disappointing suburban result
Both Rs lead. Kelly Chambers (R) over Jamie Smith (D) 52.5-47.5. Chris Gildon (R) over Brian Duthie (D) 53-47.

LD-26: +0/+1 senate, +0/+1 house
In the senate race, Emily Randall (D) leads Marty McClendon (R) 50.6-49.4. Jesse Young (R) leads Connie FitzPatrick 51-49. Michelle Caldier (R) leads Joy Stanford (D) 54-46.

LD-28: +1
Both Ds lead. Mari Leavitt (D) ahead of incumbent Dick Muri (R) 51.5-48.5. Christine Kilduff (D) killing it over Maia Espinoza (R) 56.5-44.5.

LD-30: +1 senate
And Miloscia bites dust. Claire Wilson (D) leads Mark Miloscia (R) 53-47. The house Ds are both getting over 60%. This district is going the way of LD-45 (Dhingra).

LD-35: +0/+1 house
Looks like infamous Tim Sheldon (DR) will eek out a second win over Irene Bowling (D) 52.5-47.5. Dan Griffey (R) looks safe. Drew MacEwen (R) leads David Daggett (D) 51.5-48.5.

LD-42: +0/1 senate, +0 to +2 house
Super tight results all around. Incumbent Doug Ericksen (R) leads Pinky Vargas (D) 50.4-49.6. Incumbent Luanne Van Werven (R) leads Justin Boneau (D) 50.7-49.3. Sharon Shewmake (D) is leading incumbent Vincent Buys (R) 50.1-49.9.

LD-44: +1 house
Steve Hobbs (D) senate and John Lovick (D) house are cruising to reelection. Jared Mead (D) is unseating incumbent Mark Harmsworth (R) 52-48.

LD-47: +0/1 senate, +1 house
Joe Fain (R), senate incumbent is leading Mona Das (D) 50.3-49.7 right now. There are 12k+ ballots left to count in this district. I'd rather be Das. Looks like Debra Entenman (D) will unseat Mark Hargrove (R) 52.5-47.5. Pat Sullivan (D) is getting over 60%.

Ds are currently +7 in the house and +2 in the senate. But that could extend to +18 and +4 if late returns are D favoring.

[Seattle]

When’s the next ballot drop?

Between 4-6 today for most counties.

[Seattle]

Well there are at least 732k worth of votes left to be counted... Probably more like 800k with ballots yet to arrive.

To update the legislative races. Nothing has flipped from the initial vote dump.
However, I think Fain loses. His lead is down to 90 votes (10k ballots left for counting). Similarly, Ericksen leads by just 122 votes, while Sharon Shewmake's (D) lead grew and Luanne Van Werven's (R) shrank to 261. However, I just checked and there are only 3k ballots left to count in Whatcom :/ So perhaps the Rs hang on?

[Seattle]

Randall probably loses, unfortunately.
There are 2,700 ballots left to count in Kitsap and 3,000 in Pierce. So, that's what, like max 500 ballots between them? She'd have to win the remaining hypothetical ballots by 57.6% (75 votes) to scrape by and likely more, since there's probably fewer than 500 remaining.

Skagit county still has 20,000 ballots left to process (why???), so the tenuous lead Dave Paul (D) has over Dave Hayes (R) could change.

Ericksen (R) will almost certainly win, by 72 votes, or .1% since there's only 34 ballots left in Whatcom, and we're past the point of significant late returns. What's the recount rule in WA? Not that it'll change the outcome.

Not a disappointing night for WA Dems, but there were so many close races (3% or less) and a few notable suburban districts they failed to flip: LD 6 (Spokane suburbs), LD 17 (suburban Vancouver), LD 25 (Puyallup), LD 26 (Kitsap + Gig Harbor), and LD 42 (where they gained a house seat, but missed the above senate seat and other house seat by less than .1% and .18%).

[Seattle]

ermagerd

Randall has clawed her way back into a lead by 12 votes!!
She leads 34,279 to 34,267.

1,800 votes left in Kitsap, 1,500 in Pierce. So that means probably around 150-200 ballots left to count here?

Skagit dumped 5,000 votes (15k remain). Dave Paul (D) gains on Dave Hayes (R) and now leads 50.34-49.66, or 456 votes.

Despite only reporting "34" ballots on hand yesterday, Ericksen's lead has narrowed from 72 to 58. Whatcom only list 1 ballot left to count... but that's probably not accurate. So, who knows, maybe there's enough out there to get that close enough to recount-win territory (I'm sure this will go to a recount, but 58 is a pretty big margin to overcome).

[Seattle]

Whipped up a quick map of where pickups stand in the House.

[Seattle]

500 ballots left in Kitsap, 1,300 in Pierce.
She probably pulls out the win.

Whatcom won't report again until the 24th, so any super late ballots/reconciled rejected ballots will be counted by then. Idk how much of a bump that'll end up being, but it could potentially change the result in LD-42 (Ericksen +58, Van Werven +95).

Dave Paul looks to have secured a win in the 10th. No other races are close enough to be impacted by what's remaining.
But ugh, both D house candidates in the 25th came just short - it reminds me of LD-5 in 2016. While Trump won the 25th in 2016, I think he'll probably lose it come 2020, hopefully Podladowski and co can expand the map here.