Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Wisconsin+17]

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Provisionals + military ballots. We'll see how they turn out.

Count every ballot, amiright.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I was thinking more of Gore, or Hillary and how the election was 'stolen' LOL.

Funny how the shoe is different on the other side.

It's not like this was a blowout election. We'll see what comes of it.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Christ. Sir One-Note continues to battle against the dark forces in America.

[Wisconsin+17]

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They had Jones winning by 10% at the same time. What kind of model is that? Mine had a slight Moore lead, but a lead nonetheless and got gradually more confident as time went on.

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Christ. Every other post in the hour before the election was 'pedophile'. You want class? Clean up your own cesspit. Also you had Extreme, me and classic as 'pedophiles' for standing up for Moore.

Whatever you say, Sir One-Note.

[Wisconsin+17]

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LOL stay classy, San Diego.

[Wisconsin+17]

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If you look at the difference through the evening, their call at one point was +10 Jones, when there was nothing to indicate that. It's no big deal when there's under 10% in, but at that point we were about 30-40 percent in. Way off.

Also, it wasn't until at 90+ that they were within 2%. Their prediction kept getting peeled down, peeled down, peeled down. It was almost as was predicted that it would come all the way back. That's not a sign of a good model, that's the sign of data aggregation.

 That's not a great 'predictor'. Mine was within 2% at about the 20% mark. Had Moore up a bit, but nothing over 1% until I made the call at about 1.3% advantage of Moore over the swing.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I find it interesting that the lesson learned here is that branding everyone to whom you have a political disagreement as pedophile is an effective tactic.

If that's the lesson that democrats take from this election, it's going to be an interesting 2018. Sure. Believe that. Believe that the way to fix America is to crusade against the wrongdoers. But look at the numbers.

Eighty-five percent of Republicans believed that the lies were in fact lies. Do you think that's going to provoke more republicans who come from the side that Democrats can be reasoned with? Or are you more likely to harden the opinion of the republicans?

Choose carefully which path you want to tread.  

[Wisconsin+17]

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There was an old fairy tale about the boy who cried wolf. What happened when people tuned him out?

You spent 14-1 advantage to defeat a republican in a special senate election. And it came down to recounts.

Does that suggest that there's an overwhelming, euhm, upwelling of support? I don't see that. I also wonder what happens when the spending is 1:1.