2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

You have my endorsement. I've done my own projection earlier this morning and you are showing the results I got - except I think the Grits might lose their seat.

At 7% in the city, both Liberals seats are almost for sure to be split between the Tories(River Heights) and NDP (Tyndall Park). Manitoba will soon look like Saskatchewan, a two party province.

[lilTommy]

If i were a MANliberal... i'd only be working on River Heights. Its better to keep one then lose two.

Other elections... A new NFLD poll!

MQO Poll:
PC: 54 (+1)
NDP: 33 (+4 nice)
LIB: 13 (-5 ouch)

LEADER - KD: 62 LM 27 KA: 11.
Who won debate? KD 36 LM 22. KA 6 Sample 464 +/-4.6%

Don't have a link since i saw it tweeted on CBC

[lilTommy]

NDP becoming the anti-Tory party... hopefully they can build on that for future elections and try to win the Premiership. Or translate that into federal support outside of St. John's.

... or both

[lilTommy]

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.

So that "could" mean the NDP would win every city of SJs seat (except Virginia Waters, is that in the city?) making it the centre of the opposition strength; and Labrador could elect only opposition members (NDP in LW, Liberals in Cartwright, Lake Melville and Torngat Mnts)
Thats an interesting dynamic

[lilTommy]

The NFLD Liberals are very bitter about the polls... they are claiming they were bought and paid for by the tories?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/10/03/nl-liberals-slam-poll-103.html

This is quite childish by the liberals... you never hear the NDP in PEI saying things like that? Perhaps your party (liberals) just aren't clicking with the people out there? not believing there is a problem might be part of it

[lilTommy]

And my final post on the NWT election is this:
http://www.electionsnwtresults.ca/esTerritorialResults.htm

Sorry but this is pathetic. The "live election coverage" is not even reporting on live election coverage. It's just a bunch of natives speaking in their native language one after another in front of radio mics. I'm embarrassed to be in the same country as this. It's not a population thing, don't give me that, Yukon elections are exciting as you'll all see in a week. This? This... This is pathetic.

So? There are a lot of different languages to cover, should each have its own complete coverage?

Thats also mildly offensive, the NWT is not the Yukon, and is nowhere near the south. The majority are artic aboriginal peoples so i don't expect there to be much english outside Yellowknife. The Yukon has always been more "white" and anglo, you can thank the goldrush for that ... I totally agree the consensus system is a bore and by the sounds of things isn't very effective. There is actually a facebook page set up to discuss that very thing i believe.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/NWT.elec.17/
With political parties you get a standard message and i think that helps attracts candidates cause there is a central party helping to get candidates in place.
I'm very excited to see how things shape up in the Yukon (to show how serious the NDP is, Olivia Chow was campaigning up there!)

[lilTommy]

Did we miss this Yukon poll? Not a match up, per se, but still insightful.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

Go to press releases, and click on September 2011. More people satisfied with Yukon Party representatives than NDP representatives. But NDP has more trust on most issues. But Yukon Party has more trust on the economy and government management. So... who really knows?

To be fair there is only 1 NDP member (Hanson), and she has only been around for a year. But over on Rabble someone got a robo call from the Yukon Party ... saying vote YP to stop the NDP... that shows us they are scared and concerned about the NDP.
Last i saw the biggest issues this election are Housing and the environment (Peel watershed protection)... the economy is doing really well so its not a huge concern but its being used as a wedge, scare tactic against the NDP.
Northern politics is all local, it only takes dozens of votes to win or lose so the ground game, the local campaign is going to be key.

[lilTommy]

You know St. john's Centre is comptitive when the Tories bring out the Mayor to campagin for you... sound scared to me

CBC news covered SJ North and South, saying there both NDP targets, they performed poorly in 2007 but this year, can we basically throw out the stats from 07 and start over since the NDP is roughly 3x higher with two MPs

Olivia Chow is just all over the place too... she will be campaigning for the NDP is St John's. She was in the Yukon last week doing the same (and pushing her National public transit issue)

[lilTommy]

Yukon Poll: They also go today, this could (very well could) elect the NDP... most likley a minority where the Liberals will hold the balance.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

It is a dead heat:

NDP             35% (about the same as last poll)
Yukon Party     35% (down)
Liberals             26% (up)
Greens            2%
First Nations       2%

Based on sample size, the margin of error is +/- 5.1%.

[lilTommy]

Well, I hope the NDP can come out as the Opposition in NL. What times do polls close? And NL must have the most boring party logos ever.

As for Yukon, with things this close, and it being Yukon, there may be some strange results... NDP will do great in Whitehourse, Yukon Party outside of it, but with Liberals only 9% behind, they might be spoilers in some cases. Could tip things.

Looks like the polls close 8 east coast/island time. With the tories almost guaranteed to win, that should help sway some to vote for the NDP especially where they can win, when things are closer generally people (as we saw in ontario to some degree) people stick with what they know, or the "safer" choice.

Yukon, in the poll interestingly enough almost a quarter of liberals wanted Hanson as premier (92% of NDP voters backed Hanson... who are the 8! lol) With 11 of the 19 seats in Whitehorse, and the NDP prefered in the city, its going to be interesting that the Liberals might swing this. Liberal voters were more likely to vote the candidate rather then the Party, which might help their two members in the city.
This might be stupid to predict but:
YP - 8
NDP - 7
LIB - 4
 

[lilTommy]

Crap, i forgot to mention... Saskatchewan is a go!
might be the most boring of the bunch, but i still have some hope the NDP can atleast salvage a respectable showing as the opposition. Its going to be very interesting to see how the party performs when they look to be so low in the polls.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/

[lilTommy]

NFLD - I think there might be a recount in Burin-Placentia, the Tory only won by 40 votes... if this is won by the NDP come recount, they would be tied with the Liberals... but as mentioned i think the Liberals would still be the OO? could the NDP fight that? (larger % of the popular vote after all). I think Labrador West could have gone NDP with a local candidate, again poor choice by the membership... Lake Melville will be a target next time and chalk it to a good candidate. Still a great night for the NDP
So the NDP under performed and the Liberals over performed... again as in Ontario. The Liberal 19% was VERY efficient, while the NDP managed to produce 4 seats in SJ which is incredible, but did you see the Liberal vote! in some ridings they failed to get 2-3% of the vote.
One downside to the Liberals is their leader failed to win, again. So the advantage in the House goes to the NDP.

YUKON - Ok, i was close I thought the numbers were going to be closer as the Liberals looked to be picking up some steam, but they just crashed and burned... if the NDP had a candidate in Vuntut Gwitchin they might have taken it... and surprisingly close in Watson Lake and Riverdale North. But the NDP had a massive gain here from 1 to 6 seats! and OO. Also, i was so excited to see a turncoat like Eric Fairclough lose to his old part (NDP) in Mayo-Tatchum But i expect their might be a recount in Copperbelt South

A good night for the NDP all around i think! again, a good night for incumbents

Any fancy maps of the Yukon, like we have for NFLD?

[lilTommy]

Thats very true in the case of Manitoba and Ontario, frankly the Tories in both provinces failed, they HAD the elections in hand... until people heard them, and they ran their campaigns and voters realized "Ummm maybe not".
BUT in NFLD, ON and YK we have strengthened opposition (ok, NFLD barely) but in all three cases historic nights for the NDP.
... Oh, interesting tid-bits about the new Yukon NDP caucus... they have 4 women and 2 men (a female dominant caucus, i haven't seen that since BC 2001 when the remaining 2 NDP members where women) All the women were elected from Whitehorse, and the men represent the two rural ridings, that will be an interesting dynamic.

[lilTommy]

Should Cooperbelt South not be a lighter shade of Orange? the NDP only won by 4 votes i believe... i think you have Riverdale South and Copperbelt South mixed up on the map... but it sure is great!

I think Yellowknife is a smaller % of the territorial government... they have 6 of the 19 ridings... Whitehorse has 11 or the 19... Whitehorse is a larger city though so it makes some sense.

[lilTommy]

The map is by winning party's share of the vote, not by lead.

Thanks... huh, then i'm more impressed then how close it was, the Liberals were a non-factor then

[lilTommy]

Hanson racked in the Highest vote (in a three way race) with 63% of the vote

Elias (Vuntut Gwitchen) had the highest overall with 64%... but thats the riding with no NDP candidate... which boggles my mind since they held this riding before 2006!

[lilTommy]

Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they NDP lose) omnomnom?

How does the shirt taste?

I think the NDP has a fantastic foundation for the future in NL. Having a base in St. John's is KEY and it is probably inevitable that Dunderdale will lose popularity and the next election will be more competitive. I wonder if Lorraine Michael stick around for the NDP. She is 69 (I believe) and has had two kicks at the can. She may want to step aside gracefully and let someone like Dale Kirby of St. John's North run for Premier in 2015...btw: unless someone changes the fixed election dates the 2015 NL election will happen at exactly the same time as the 2015 federal election - making it even more likely that the NDP can cross pollinate federal and provincial popularity.

I thought about that too, Michaels probably wont step down for at least a year or so, while the liberals are in a sort a mess with no leader this is not the time to start a leadership race. In a year or so she will have built something solid in the House and can afford to step aside, remember shes not only the leader but the only one with any elected experience. I've heard Keith Dunne and Julie Mitchels names punted about for leader... both lost but with Mitchel there might be a recount and whos to say some of the old timer tory MHAs might step down if things don't go well... note Osborne in ST south was elected in 96, so hes getting way past his prime.
 

[lilTommy]

RURAL
40.54% YP
31.37% NDP
25.45% Lib
2.65% Oth

WHITEHORSE
39.41% YP
34.95% NDP
24.31% Lib
1.33% Grn

Thats pretty even, Odd that with 40% they only won 3 rural ridings, and two were close. The YP really did win over Whitehorse 7 ridings to the NDPs4. Also interesting... the Liberals were only second in three ridings (Porter Creek Centre and South and Copperbelt South)

[lilTommy]

The only real "record" broken for the NDP was in Newfoundland, and even there, they underperformed expectations.

Or rather, the Liberals overperformed expectations, at least when it comes to seat numbers.

The Liberal vote was VERY effcient and concentrated in the Western portion... i have no idea why, there looks to be no tradition based on those 2003 maps when they last were government. The only thing i can think is local guy mattered.
The NDP vote was also very localised to some degree on the Eastern coast and absolutely in the Avalon, BUT the tories are also very strong in the Avalon so it was battle royal there. The NDP was second in every riding and some were relatively close 5-10% off. Given that many members were elected in 2007 with 60-70+% wins, thats a great showing!

[lilTommy]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

Part way through base maps for Alberta and Quebec (Alberta had a redistribution last year, after I'd prepared base maps for it). Quebec's looking pretty close to finished, but Alberta's still a little way's off. I figure if I can get them both pretty near done, then if either calls an election, I can focus on completing that province's maps.

Since Alberta had its redistribution, might someone else like to attempt to work out some notional margins? It could be useful in looking at areas which had the greatest swings to Wild Rose (assuming there actually are swings to Wild Rose).

Your point about the Liberals and NDP potentially benefiting is interesting. On the one hand some of their supporters may wish to back Redford (either because they like her positions, or because they'd rather see a PC Government, rather than a WRA Government), but on the other hand, with WRA and PC splitting the right-of-centre vote, there are probably opportunities for the Liberals and NDP, thus potentially dissuading voters from voting PC just to keep out Wild Rose. I think it's going to be a very, very interesting election.

Last election results for Alberta are in the gallery (and obviously based on old boundaries).

In regards to Alberta, It looks like the NDP will benefit the most, the last poll published showed the NDP with some real momentum...
http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/Alison+Redford+inherits+lead+rivals+poll/5530395/story.html
PC: 48 (down from 52.7 in 2008)
NDP: 16.3 (up from 8.5)
Wildrose: 16.1 (up from 6.
Liberal: 13.4 (down from 26.4)
Alberta party: 3.1

http://www.lethbridgecollege.ca/sites/default/files/imce/about-us/applied-research/csrl/Alberta_Provincial_Vote_Intention_Fall_2011_0.pdf
So Redford will probably draw support from the Liberals, mostly in Calgary as mentioned already. Wildrose could very well eat away many conservative rural tory ridings if Redfrod dosen't play her cards right and placate the extreme side. In Edmonton the NDP is second! at 21.5%... this is definelty a target for the party, with the Wildrose and Liberals in play, that could mean seats fall to the NDP by small margins. Oddly enough the NDP are also second in southern alberta at 19.5% (one of the Lethbridge ridings, i think West is being touted as a target)
Alberta is looking something like a weird NFLD to me, almost a sure PC win, but who will be the opposition? with the Liberals collapse? will the NDP have a surge? will Wildrose blossom (HA! sorry about that). Right now i'm still focusing on SASK (i still have faith!) but Alberta looks to be exciting

[lilTommy]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

Alas, no. Looks more likely to be 1982 all over again.

Bad, very bad. Any reason why?

Popular Premier, NDP leader is unpopular (and, worse, is called Dwain), economy is doing well.

Its such a shame too, the NDP have been out with policies each day, the platform was released and full costed... while the SP is relatively quiet on the policy side other then mimicking the federal tories tax tweaks. they have done nothing but attach Link (Lingenfelter... ala Harper vs Iggy style).. which struck me as pretty dumb headed since they had a good 20point lead last poll. The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit and cant even cost anything (made some news when they criticized the NDP health plan and grossly over stated the cost). What made me laugh was Wall said the NDP platform would lead to 80's style deficit... which is funny since in the 80's SASK was led by the Devine tories and Wall worked for that gov't!

I'm hoping the NDP can save the sink, the Liberals aren't running (Good for the NDP i hope...ok they have 6 candidates i think) but the Greens are... not sure how the SASKgreens are but they seem to be on the progressive side, which is not a great sign but the former Green leader is now working for the NDP so.

There have been no polls out, which i think the NDP are happy about... but its hard to gage if this is going to be a cakewalk for the SaskParty... if it was why all the attacking? why not just coast... I've heard two rumours 1) SP internal polling is showing some NDP strength and 2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

[lilTommy]

Sorry forgot to mention, Link has a new TV ad out... very Dalton-esk... he leads with "i know I'm not popular" meh, might work for him, hes definitely the under dog... hes also as charismatic as a stalk of wheat (tried to make it a prairie reference)

[lilTommy]

The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit

Against the background of the current Canadian economic situation, I don't see how this could ever be considered a "horrible record". I'm not a fan of the Saskatchewan Party's policies, but there's no denying that the last 4 years have been a success story for Saskatchewan's economy. After years of terrible population losses, people are moving there in droves for jobs (in the booming natural resource sector).

2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

How is this "evil"? It's essentially the long-term goal of every single political party in the world to eliminate their opposition. The province seems to be turning its back on the party anyway (viz. the federal election results, where the NDP even lost most of the Saskatoon polls that they used to win handily).

Horrible might have been harsh, BUT when you have a 50/50 record and can't even count i'd say thats pretty horrible... and you can thank the int'l commodities market/demands for the success in SASK, and ofcourse a government that inherited a balanced budget. The NDP were turfed from what i see for no other reason then "you've been in power too long" and if the party is stale that can be a good thing. The NDP has its problems and really choose the wrong leader... but the SP is a terrible alternative

umm in may the SASK NDP vote grew from 25% to 32%... now thats pretty good (not great) growth. I don't know about specific polls but in Saskatoon the NDP was within 500 votes of winning Rosetown-Biggar and about 700 in Palliser... the Liberal vote collapsed and both the NDP and tories benefited.

[lilTommy]

Ok this is the first frackin' poll i've seen all Sask election

http://www.insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=353893

SP - 60%
NDP - 33%

Looks bad, but since 2009 the NDP have gained 10points and the SaskParty is down 6... the NDP is the only party with upward (ok slow as hell but still) momentum, while the SaskParty is pretty flat.
Now, it would be great to see regional numbers since the SaskParty pretty much wins the rural seats while the NDP wins in the cities (Regina & Saskatoon, smaller ones Prince Albert and Moose Jaw). Could this be a MAN-style repeat? in reverse, where the NDP (basically at the same 2007 level) holds on and the leg stays at 20NDP and 38SP. This is my hope, there might be NDP pick ups IF they can pull the vote in those half dozen urban seats the SP holds

Some good news: Almost half support the NDP's main proposal of a Potash royalty review. That seems to be playing pretty well in the publics mind right now.
Ok news: Lingefelter didn't bomb the debate... he was slow and started out stiff but the second half he was pretty dominent. But still hes clearly not going to win this so the NDP better keep riding those policies...

Oh the Liberals are dead, only 2.8% and i think 9 candidates... the greens have a full slate of 58 but are only at 3%... this is good news for the NDP in some ways they don't have to worry about the Greens eating their left flank too much. The focus needs to be to win over moderate "would-have-voted-liberal" voters.

[lilTommy]

Redistribution happened for the 2003 election by the looks of things, might be in need for one next election... somewhere here i think Teddy rolled over the rules for that. Sask is still a small province i think they just broke the 1M mark.

Sorry, looks like in 2007 the vote was 50% SP and 37%NDP... so i think your on the right track with a 11floor and 16 or so ceiling.

BUT the Liberal vote is going to be the X factor here, 9% in 2007, so that 6% or so looks to have gone all to the Saskies, if the NDP can continue to try and push that gap they might end up around the 18-23 mark (yes i don't discount pickups in the cities here).

Its expected to be a cake walk for Wall, that could be his downfall. Right now, there is very little push for Saskies to go and vote, while NDP's NEED to vote just to save the kitchen sink... if the NDP gets their vote out could lead to some close pick ups and saves (im being optimistic here again )