Canadian by-elections, 2012

[lilTommy]

Thats what i was thinking, is that in order to truely look to win we have to get out of our comfort zone (as Dippers).
Does anyone know if say someone on Oshawa council, or Durham regional gov who is a dipper who could run? (Nester Pidwerbecki is the one i looked up and found, hes on oshawa council or Larry O'Connor who is Mayor of Brock, frm regional councillor and former MPP in Durham) ... or someone like Jim Standford, an economist with the CAW but not seen as a typical CAW union pres.
 

[lilTommy]

Keep in mind that redistribution could also have a big impact on Oshawa. Ontario gains 15 seats and there is a lot of growth in Durham region. The NDP tends to do well in the older "downtown" parts of Oshawa and less well in the more outlying suburban areas. Its quite possible that a new riding will be created east of Toronto and that the current riding of Oshawa may shrink in size and give up some of the more Tory-leaning territory.

Bingo! and in that case mr firebrand irishman could win a newer, smaller Oshawa (would we want him to?) think Pat Matin x10 and 10x leftier

There is no question, the GTA will be the biggest winner (Peel, Halton, York, Durham will see the most changes, some could be drastic if they decide to roll that way)...

A friend has  a blog (who doesn't) and has a write-up about Durham:
http://kaylehatt.ca/6-reasons-why-a-durham-by-election-might-not-be-a-conservative-sure-thing/

[lilTommy]

I posted that the NDP candidate from 11 still has an active Facebook page... but that could mean nothing, especially if somone wants to run and they push for a contested nomination. with the NDP where they are in the polls, i would expect a stronger candidate to step up (gah i hope).

Adma - great breakdown! looks like the NDP did best in the southern portion (newcastle, Bowmanville, along the 401, i think both towns are part of Clarington?)

I think its interesting, that even though the 90s are long ago, the same trends for battleground ridings are there for the NDP. Scarborough and eastern GTA where you see these ridings have gone to the gov't not all at once, but usually in the end they will with a few exceptions. Someone mentioned immigrant and white-cdn born middle-working class will trend towards the best able to win... and the one that isn't tarnished so (as the liberals are now). Many of these areas the NDP didn't invest the time and got a huge bump in 11... now if the investments made in ground work/candidates i think that can help... but three more years of the tories in this state which looks to be a gradual slow decline could help.

On the Ford NDs... its odd, but i think a lot of that was some pendulum swing after two terms of David Miller... i liked the guy but he was getting trashed in the media to some degree and Ford for all his proven failings as mayor was a good councillor.

[lilTommy]

2nd place map:

Nice Map!... you could pretty easily just split that with a knife along the Uxbridge/Scugog border... Scugog being that mixed area where the liberals 2nd place lead bleeds into the NDP 2nd place lead.
Looks like neither the Lib or NDP will take this one lightly... where Calgary Centre might be a given and not sure how many resources will be put into it... but by-elections are different animals aint they.

I hear this is not the first time Toews has been offered a Judgeship... scary thought

[lilTommy]

... is that a proposal i hear?

I agree too, just depends on how many ridings York/Durham are due and how they get cut up... but Uxebridge seems much more "York" then "Durham" politically and maybe even demographically

[lilTommy]

Sure, it's a proposal. But, just for one riding

... tease

[lilTommy]

A little off tangent, back to by-election talk, Etobicoke Centre is really heatin up with the Supreme court hearing the arguments today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/canadas-voting-system-at-the-heart-of-etobicoke-elections-case/article4401938/

[lilTommy]

So looks like the NDP has the highest profile candidate coming forward for the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election so far.

"Catherine Fife, trustee and chair of the Waterloo Region District School Board and president of the Ontario Public School Boards’ Association..."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1225356--ontario-public-school-boards-association-catherine-fife-seeks-ndp-nomination

I hate this term but, Game changer?

[lilTommy]

I don't believe in selling my soul... i voted Pants (Pantalone) when a lot of my progressive friends were going Smithy (Smitherman) last municipal to stop Ford... ya how that turn out for us.
I think Strategic voting is always a failure... its like a one night stand, you usually just hate yourself no matter what happens

[lilTommy]

I would have voted for Pantalone too. But that's different. As a social democrat, I saw Smitherman being not much better than Ford.  However in this case, I would vote strategically to help the NDP. Even if that means voting Tory. Liberal victory means the NDP loses all of their power. A Tory (or NDP) victory means the NDP holds a huge amount of power. Don't get me wrong, I loathe strategic voting, but this is probably the only justifiable time for it. 

Ahhh i see your point, the keep this a minority. Interesting point... i wonder if we will see PCs voting NDP with this announcement? the Tory Candidate (on paper, i don't know her) sounds weaker in terms of elected experience so... using your logic could they switch and vote NDP to keep the yet-to-be-named Liberal out?

[lilTommy]

ew I voted for Smitherman.

But also for Anthony Perruzza so I think that cancels out my one mistake.

... Yes, yes it does
Ahhh yes i read that, and if Karen Scian the councillor wins the Liberal Nom, then its an all female cast. Whitmer was rather moderate no? more a Davis PCer? Interesting to see where the "personal whitmer vote" will  drift to. With recent provincial polling very bad for the liberals and well a "need to win" mentallity they probably have... its going to be a battle. I might even take some time to trek up there and volunteer for the NDP, i've got a number of old ONDY friend who are still there.

[lilTommy]

It was an all-female (4 parties) cast in 2007, too, when Fife previously bore the NDP standard.  (Only getting into high teens; but that's with Witmer an incumbent, and when the strategic electoral climate generally didn't work in the NDP's favour, whatever the credentials of the candidate.)

Good Catch, i thought she had run before but i just didn't look ... to Fife's credit, she was the only candidate to make gains in 2007... picking up 6% while Whitmer (-2) and the Libs (-9)... your right, this year the situation is going to be much more favourable to the NDP

[lilTommy]

I wouldn't call KW necessarily SWON but its definetly got much of the same characteristics... i'd call it that transition zone between the GTA and SWON... Historically (90s) it was very working class, germanic/white, auto/industrial (Cambridge in particular)... but since then RIM helped boots it to be a very Yuppie/hi-tech super boom area that one woul think votes Liberal and well with the Gov't for the most part (as you can see the seats now are moslty gov't or Liberal Guelph being the standout). Yes it has its relative affluence but also i'd say a growing commutter population since housing is way less then in TO.
My point, I agree with adma; in today's politics on ON the NDP can't be counted out especially with a solid candidate and a by-election. Some things we can't forget about the atmosphere this by-election:
- Liberals polling consistently in third provincewide
- A number of bad news stories recently (Liberal party called for cancelling gas plant not the gov't) looks like vote buying.
- RIM is not the same RIM as 2007; there have been many job losses, mostly in the KW area
- the Liberal post-sec. EDU plank is being skuered by student's... the qualifications for this 40% business is so specific, most won't get it.
- The NPD rise fed/Prov; Andrea is in KW almost on a weekly basis (from my FB KW friends) and i'd bet there is a push to get Mulcair to visit.
- The PC's in opposition: they have been terrible, not relevant during the budget, zero media coverage it was and since then has been a Lib/NDP fight in most media outlets (for good or bad). They looked opportunistic supporting the NDP motions, in fact voting against their election platform... will they be called out on that in this by-election? They should be.

This is going to be a three-way race and i think its will come down to do the liberals deserve a majority? If no, then is the NDP or the PC best suited to win.

[lilTommy]

So were having two by-elections now... Sorbara is leaving to focus on being the campaign chair... you know the one that "bought" seats in Mississauga by forcing the government to kill a power plant.
At any rate, this should be a straight Lib-PC battle, this is pure suburbian, very Italian to boot... the federal Liberals lost Vaughan to the Tories in a by-election, before the 2011 election.
This might help the NDP, by being able to focus and concentrate resource on KW while the Tories and Liberals will have to slpit resources in two ridings.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1235179--ontario-by-election-to-be-held-in-vaughan-as-sorbara-retires

[lilTommy]

So whats your thoughts Holmes?
Unless the tories can pick a star candidate ala Fantino, the liberals should have this... even if they choose a mediocre candidate (as long as their italian). Remember the OLP is not the same Liberal party as the federal cousin, its name only and there not that dead provincially as they are federally (although the last few provincial polls had the OLP what thrid?)

Anyway, DL is on the same point i made, if the Liberals have pretty much forsaken KW then they can focus on Vaughan and make a media splash by saying they won the confidence of the people blah blah. Save face. IF the NDP can win KW, the Liberals win Vaughan, then the real losers are the PCs and the Liberals will be happy enough with that.

[lilTommy]

One of those weird things to happen i hope is the NDP winning KW

I'm comfortable in my cozy DT TO hood, Trinity-Spadina keeps me busy, not as much as my old riding of T-Danforth did. Its rare i go above bloor... almost never head above Eglington; once or twice a year, with a shirpa, i head to Yorkdale. 

I would ahve loved to meet y'all but i never made it to convention, since i'm no longer a youth by a long shot the budget wasn't there. I have Hatman on Facebook since thats where i chill.

God i miss Ottawa, i have most of my family there so.

I still go and take a look over at BluntObjects (i think thats teddys work) its good to know thy enemy right?

[lilTommy]

Looks like Forum did a poll in Vaughan... the breakdown might chance with Candidates, but this is going to be a dog fight.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1237959--poll-vaughan-byelection-up-for-grabs

41% PC, 40% OLP, 15% NDP (we were never in that game anyway)

---

I read about the Manitoba by-election... so the PCs elected a Filmon era cabinet minister; the very same Filmon gov't that the current NDP demonizes every chance they get and esp. at every election (might not say it in name, but its almost always aluded to). So why not shot yourself in the foot while your down eh
But Fort Whyte probably won't be much of a fight... the ridings been PC since it was created in 99; it has the 2nd highest income in the province, rather ethnically diverse though at 21%. But the new leader is running here and the PCs got over 60% in 11. If the Liberals put their act together they might be competative, they were in 03 and a 05 by-election.

[lilTommy]

Hey 11% is nothing to shy at, doesn't mean your in contention though ... and trust me, my first election working for the NDP we were excited to break 2000 votes!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1238711--mcguinty-calls-byelections-for-vaughan-and-kitchener-waterloo

Its official, the by-elections are set for Sept 6th... if anyone thinks that date is familiar, look what happened on Sept 6th...

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/provincial-territorial-politics/ontario-elections-25-tumultuous-years/astonishing-victory-for-the-ndp.html

[lilTommy]

For Kitchener-Waterloo the Liberals have gone with Eric Davis, the candidate back in the last prov. election. So the NDP now carry the heavy-weight candidate card, will it make the difference?
 
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1019163/eric-davis-wins-liberal-nomination-in-kitchener-waterloo

[lilTommy]

I don't think we will ever really get away from this old Strategic voting line... just a new take, Vote PC to take away a Liberal Majority. My gut is that in more urban centres it harder to find a NDP -to-PC voter, where as you can see this more in some rural areas (i'm thinking mostly Northern Ontario).

Its going to be a battle between for "do you want a majority or keep this minority? if no, it becomes whos the best opposition to the OLP?"

Ya if anyone can find that poll, eek

And by "star-candidate" to me that generally seems to be anyone who hold an elected office/has held an elected office... whether they did a good job or not (obviously that plays). But having a candidated who a)can win elections; b)has experience running in them is nothing but an asset. Her candidacy is also important in that shes a SCHOOL BOARD trustee and president... fighting the so-called "Education Premier"
Also, we don't really need another Lawyer at QP now do we?

[lilTommy]

Just saw this..
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/1241130--steven-del-duca-nominated-for-liberals-in-sept-6-vaughan-byelection

Steven Del Duca is the Liberal candidate (seeing how quick they were on the mark here, i think this is their priority target) .. former executive assistant to Greg Sorbara and current director of public affairs for the Carpenters District Council of Ontario

[lilTommy]

Definite proof that "candidacy matters", as well as of my "Telegdi skewed the picture" argument--though it's oddly telling how the media's downplaying the NDP element on behalf of "Liberals no longer in the lead", etc...

Also, the influence Andrea has/will have... if you look at the leaders numbers; she is far ahead of Hudak and Dalton "Tim Hudak is stuck at 25 per cent approval, compared with 49 per cent for NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and 33 per cent for McGuinty"

... but the Liberal have a healthy lead in Vaughan, actually saw an increase. Its interesting to see this huge difference between these two ridings.

[lilTommy]

OH... and Happy Birthday Hatman

[lilTommy]

why would cities refuse? Yesh, municipal elections have brutally low turnout anyway i couldn't imagine an election JUST for school trustees

Just like i don't get why in Vancouver you have seperate Parks board commissioners... wouldn't that just fall under city council direction? meh

[lilTommy]

Eek, in Fort Whyte; this is a little unsettling no?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/mrjetztvs-candidacy-casts-doubt-on-rules-166859386.html