Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[lilTommy]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

From what I know, The court actually admonished the lower court. Effectively saying that this was not really an infringement on freedom of expression, this is just an inconvenience, etc, from my opinion it was a very belittling verdict for those who oppose Bill 5/31 (like me) AND, that section 3 does not apply to Municipal elections. Take a moment there, the charter section that guarantees free and fair elections, does not apply to municipalities since they are a product of the province. Mind-Blown.
Anywho, city might appeal this.

[lilTommy]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case.  

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

the results are likely to be challenged in court anyway as invalid, even under the 47 wards, at this point with about a month to go, ya a challenge is likely.

I'm not even convinced there will be savings given that there will be a need to hire double the staff per Councillor just to maintain the current level of service.
"...getting rid of 19 councillors and their office budgets, including travel expenses, equals less than $5 a year for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older. That did not account for the costs of adding additional staff for most of the 25 councillor offices."
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/08/06/what-do-toronto-city-councillors-do-more-like-what-dont-they-do.html

this might/probably will cots the city MORE money to have 25 Councillors and an appropriate staff.

Also, this is about rigging council to be more friendly, wounded and crippled, because of Ford's upcoming changes like uploading the TTC.

[lilTommy]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

From what I know, The court actually admonished the lower court. Effectively saying that this was not really an infringement on freedom of expression, this is just an inconvenience, etc, from my opinion it was a very belittling verdict for those who oppose Bill 5/31 (like me) AND, that section 3 does not apply to Municipal elections. Take a moment there, the charter section that guarantees free and fair elections, does not apply to municipalities since they are a product of the province. Mind-Blown.
Anywho, city might appeal this.

Its changing the size of council so it seems like a stretch to say its inhibiting free and fair elections. Bad policy =/= unconstitutional.

Its the timing, the change is being done during the election, its effectively changing the rules of the game during the game.
Had this bill been brought to affect next election, there would be no issue.

[lilTommy]

- Crisanti must have his own personal following, more sizable then we thought. Too bad the Ford name is now helping Tiffany Ford in Humber River-Black Creek but she'd probably not want those votes. As long as Mammo loses I'm alright
- Sad that Chiara Padovani isn't more competitive in York South-Weston, I guess with two right-winger incumbents fighting she can't rally. I'm seeing lots of progressive support for her (NDPers all in there)

[lilTommy]

Felicia Samuel should have run in Rouge Park, and Neethan Shan in Scarb North.  

Agreed! I don't get that move at all...

The Star Endorsements, Wards 1-12:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/10/15/these-are-the-city-builders-that-toronto-needs.html?fbclid=IwAR2bm2e_Rm1k2yd-OGCVmZNXl_j_Xc7iYu6oV-9dW9BQoSTAkywpgp3KCP4

No real surprises in the Progressive candidates, some notes:

Ward 5: York South-Weston: Lekan Olawoye, Lekan also has the Labour Council endorsement, but Chiara Padovani is endorsed by Progress Toronto, so they've split the vote here for for Progressives, so I sadly can't see either one come up the middle to defeat two right-wing incumbents.  

Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul’s: - Endorsed Josh Matlow over Joe Mihevc, both progressive and one of the battles that wasn't settled out ahead of time. Sounds like they flipped a coin more-or-less.

[lilTommy]

Shan had "incumbency" and opted for Rouge Park.  His ward straddles both Scarb North and Rouge Park.

There isn't much of a Black population where Felicia Samuel is running, but there is in Rouge Park. And she would have had a base to draw from there. 

... so his decision makes even less sense?! effectively killing a second Progressive from potentially winning (Yes a Liberal seems to be leading)

[lilTommy]

Rest of The Star's endorsements:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/10/16/these-are-the-council-members-toronto-needs.html

Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth - Paula Fletcher over Mary Fragedakis. Personally for me this would have been the hardest choice. They ran against-but-not-against-each-other campaign since they are both very close allies. I sat with both of them on TO-Danforth NDP executive years ago, both are great I think and I really couldn't decide between them.

Ward 15, Don Valley West - Burnside over Robinson; both are centrist-centre right and both to me are disappointing, lesser of two evils?

[lilTommy]

My Count (we can argue this) on what Toronto Council looks like:

Conservatives (non-Tory allies, right wing, reactionaries)
-> 5
   Ford, Holyday, Nunziata (could be Tory ally), Minnan-Wong, Karygiannis

Progressives (New Dems, Left-Progressive, left-Liberal, non-Tory allies)
-> 8
     Perks, Perruzza, Cressy, Layton, Matlow, Wong-Tam, Fletcher, Carroll

Moderates (conservative Tory allies, moderate-Liberals)
-> 9
     Grimes, Pasternak, Colle, Robinson, Bradford (Tory and Keesmaat endorsed, Liberal looking), Crawford, Thompson, Ainslie. Bailao

Not really sure
-> 3
     Lai, McKelvie (Liberal I think), Fillion (Red-Tory I think, not sure if hes a Tory ally though)

So with the Tory Moderates/allies and the "not sure" which seem all moderates, Tory almost has a working majority of 12. He can either go right or left, my thinking will be he will try and get more soft-left support for policies, Councillors like Carroll and Perruzza. He has fewer soft-right options, Nunziata is an opportunist so I think she will go along with Tory as long as its not too left.

[lilTommy]

Bailao votes with the progressive block about 98% of the time

Yes, but she is seen as more a Tory ally and member of his team.

The Star has an article on this very thing! - https://www.thestar.com/news/toronto-election/2018/10/22/tory-expected-to-have-slim-majority-of-allies-on-slimmed-down-city-council.html

I think Lai looks more like a moderate conservative but she's an unknown factor as of yet.

Ainslie sounds more ify then I thought, but still could be an ally if they get past the Scarborough subway.