College Football pick'em 2017- Gameplay and scoring thread

[Dereich]

This game is an absolute nightmare. FSU isn't making a bowl.

[Dereich]

This game is an absolute nightmare. FSU isn't making a bowl.

What happened to FSU? Did losing Francois really hurt that much?

No. Blackmon hasn't been much worse; FSU probably has one more win with Francois and next year will start with a legitimate fight for starting QB. The problem also isn't recruiting. FSU has either the 4th or 5th most talented squad in college football. 4 defensive starters are projected in the first or second round of next years draft. The issues are primarily coaching ones.

First, it's Jimbo's assistant coaches. He's famously never fired or dismissed an assistant. All of our best assistants were hired away or got head coaching jobs of their own, leaving only those not wanted by other programs. When asked earlier this year what the most important quality he looked for in a coach, Jimbo said he looked for "loyalty" above anything else. The average age of his staff is 55, the oldest in CFB; that can make it even harder to connect to teens. These issues have been around for a while, but great players like Winston and Cook helped paper over issues.

Plus, Jimbo himself runs the slowest offense in CFB and uses some of the most conservative play calls. That leads to not may scoring opportunities and not getting points when necessary. That's always been a problem, but defensive struggles this year have made the offenses failures even worse.

[Dereich]

My three favorite teams lost, two of them badly, and my least favorite teams won big games (except Bama which was on bye) and I have to go to work tomorrow. This weekend suuuuuuuuuucked.

[Dereich]

Yes I will bet against it Remember when you said Georgia winning the SEC was impossible though

I still don't believe Georgia is winning the SEC.

An SEC Championship Game isn't held. An infinite-sided die is thrown and Alabama's margin of victory is determined by that roll.

For all the various and sundry things I think you get wrong about College Football, this one is absolutely correct. It has been eight years since an SEC East team won the championship and nothing about this Alabama team makes that streak look at all vulnerable.

[Dereich]

Texas A&M (This will be a competitive game, however Kevin Sumlin is a better coach than Dan Mullen)

Not sure how I didn't notice this and ridicule it at the time.

Mullen is in most opinions the #2 coach in the SEC (or maybe #3 behind Malzahn). Sumlin has elite talent and falls apart every year. Sumlin only got this job because Case Keenum was already at Houston when he got there, and only has kept it because fans fondly remember Johnny Manziel (who was already at A&M when Sumlin got there).

I'd argue Kirby Smart is currently better than Malzahn. Have you seen how Georgia is playing this season compared to Auburn?

As for comparing Mullen to the rest of the SEC, you make a strong point...but Mississippi State needs to actually win a major bowl (losing the Orange Bowl isn't enough when you play in the same division as Nick Saban).

Compare Malzahn halfway through year two of his time at Auburn and Kirby halfway through year two at Georgia and you'd take Malzahn every time. Malzahn got his team into the championship in year one with a team that had gone 3-9 the year before and was in the top three until November of year two. Kirby only managed to go 8-5 year one and still has time to mess up in year two, and he was starting from a far better position, with a fully-stocked team headlined by one of the top five RBs in the country and the top QB recruit thanks to Mark Richt.

Mississippi State is far and away the hardest job in the SEC West with the least resources available to it. That he's managed to do so much with so little is a minor miracle. If Florida fires McElwain (which seems very likely) I fully expect them to spend loads for Mullen, money which will be well spent.

[Dereich]

McElwain, current two-time SEC East champ, fired at Florida for performance...while Butch Jones still has a job...lol.

First word is that Dan Mullen, Mike Norvell (Memphis HC), Scott Frost, and (obligatory at this point) Chip Kelly are the main targets. I've heard multiple sources mentioning Norvell and Mullen, so I'd assume they're the top targets.

[Dereich]

McElwain, current two-time SEC East champ, fired at Florida for performance...while Butch Jones still has a job...lol.

First word is that Dan Mullen, Mike Norvell (Memphis HC), Scott Frost, and (obligatory at this point) Chip Kelly are the main targets. I've heard multiple sources mentioning Norvell and Mullen, so I'd assume they're the top targets.

If I'm Florida, I hire Frost. As Head Coach at UCF, he'd know Florida recruiting turf very well.

I'm sure they'll talk to him, but the consensus seems to be that Frost is bound for his Alma Mater, Nebraska.

And no, he would probably NOT know Florida recruiting well at all; 2016 was his first year ever in the state. His area of expertise would be the plains states and especially the Pacific Northwest, where he spent a decade recruiting and coaching.

[Dereich]

October 31

Miami(OH) at Ohio


November 1

Central Michigan at Western Michigan

November 2

Northern Illinois at Toledo

Navy at Temple


November 3

Marshall at Florida Atlantic

UCLA at Utah


November 4

Penn State at Michigan State

Ohio State at Iowa

Clemson at NC State

Virginia Tech at Miami(FL)

Oregon at Washington

Stanford at Washington State

South Florida at Connecticut

UCF at SMU

Arizona at USC

Colorado at Arizona State

Minnesota at Michigan

Wisconsin at Indiana

Auburn at Texas A&M

Illinois at Purdue

Kansas State at Texas Tech

WKU at Vanderbilt

Baylor at Kansas

Syracuse at Florida State

Georgia Tech at Virginia

Appalachian State at Louisiana-Monroe

South Carolina at Georgia

Wake Forest at Notre Dame

Iowa State at West Virginia

Maryland at Rutgers

Army at Air Force

Northwestern at Nebraska

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Mississippi at Kentucky

Colorado State at Wyoming

UT San Antonio at Florida International

Texas at TCU

Southern Mississippi at Tennessee

LSU at Alabama


-Oklahoma State is favored, but it still feels like I'm picking an upset here. This will be an all-QB, no D, 63-59 kind of game. Whatever the over is, I'd take it.

-Meanwhile, LSU Bama will be an 11-3 or so kind of game. Come on Coach O! You and Auburn are our only hopes left to stop another Bama championship and nobody wants to rely on Auburn!

-FSU has more than enough talent to beat Syracuse, but the players aren't playing as a team anymore. I'm predicting the worst, hoping for the best.

-Come on Iowa! You always drag teams down to a low scoring slog! Stop Ohio State!

-If Muschamp beats Georgia the week after Georgia helped put the final nail in his successor's coffin, it'll be the greatest cosmic joke of all time. MAKE IT HAPPEN GEORGIA (only Georgia can make this happen, Muschamp is incapable of making good things happen on his own.)

[Dereich]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

Pretty dang mad, especially since for it to happen you probably need an SEC championship with #1 vs #2 which would then probably drop one of the teams from to #4...and would set up an IMMEDIATE rematch a few hours away in the Sugar Bowl. That's unsettling for fans, makes a WHOLE bunch of conferences angry, and would probably be awful for ratings as well. Especially since the thing Georgia is really good at, running the ball, is a) not that interesting and b) what Bama is specifically designed to stop.

[Dereich]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21242205/cfp-georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-notre-dame-fighting-irish-clemson-tigers-top-four-teams

So the first CFB Playoff Rankings are out, and the top four are as follows:

1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Alabama (SEC)
3. Notre Dame (Independent)
4. Clemson (ACC)

Is there any scenario where both Georgia and Alabama make the playoff? And if that scenario happens, just how angry would fans of other conferences (PAC-12-Washington, BIG Twelve-TCU/Oklahoma, Big Ten- Ohio State/Wisconsin) be?

Pretty dang mad, especially since for it to happen you probably need an SEC championship with #1 vs #2 which would then probably drop one of the teams from to #4...and would set up an IMMEDIATE rematch a few hours away in the Sugar Bowl. That's unsettling for fans, makes a WHOLE bunch of conferences angry, and would probably be awful for ratings as well. Especially since the thing Georgia is really good at, running the ball, is a) not that interesting and b) what Bama is specifically designed to stop.

Or they flip-flop the loser of the SEC Championship game with Notre Dame instead to avoid that scenario. The Committee almost certainly does take ratings into account.

Oh, even if every team wins out, it's unlikely we'd be talking about the same top 4. A one-loss or undefeated BIG10 champion will always get in. ND plays a mostly ACC schedule anyway; I'd think that if they get in no ACC team would be making it.

[Dereich]

Big 12 will probably get in, I think the only conference that is out for sure is Pac 12 right now because RIP

A 1 loss Washington champ is by no means out for sure.

[Dereich]

I think it's virtually certain that, if Alabama and Georgia play at 12-0, both teams are in regardless of the result of the SEC Championship Game (maybe unless one team gets blown out).  I could even see the loser only dropping to #3.

Why would you ever assume that? This isn't the SEC of six or seven years ago; most of the East is so terrible that winning out won't be that impressive. It's very possible that less than half of the SEC East will have winning seasons. Assuming Georgia loses to Bama by 14 like the early Vegas line predicts, what about their resume makes them impressive? They'll have the one point win to ND and a good win over an 8 or 9 win Mississippi State team. Who would their next best win be after that? Unranked (after two losses) Auburn? Kentucky?

I have trouble seeing how the committee leaves ANY one loss champion out for the SEC loser. I even doubt they pick Georgia over one loss Notre Dame; they showed last year with Penn State/Ohio State that head-to-head isn't decisive and ND would have the more impressive list of wins.

[Dereich]

Guys, just remember that the only ranking that matters is the final one. I highly doubt they’d put in two SEC teams, they’ve never doubled up on a conference before. I also don’t see why ND playing mostly ACC teams would immediatley count out the ACC champion. If the ACC champion ends up being NC State than I can see it, but not for Clemson or Miami.

Clemson maybe not, but Miami plays ND. If you're talking about a 1 loss Miami champion or 1 loss ND which BEAT Miami and has improved since its loss, you probably leave out the ACC champ.

[Dereich]

I O W A

[Dereich]

I O W A

Well, there goes the Big Ten's chances of making a playoff.

If Wisconsin wins out w/ wins against Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota with a win in the Big 10 Championship game could get in. Better resume at that point, someone else is likely to lose, also Oklahoma should be refused entrance for no defense. Yes, you scored 62 points, and gave up 52, it's like college basketball.

Oh yeah; no undefeated P5 team with a conference championship (Hi 2014 FSU!) is ever getting left out in favor of a team with losses.

[Dereich]

Come on NYE, this is too hot a take, even for you:

Army (Duke has fallen apart in ACC play. Will David Cutcliffe keep his job?)

THIS IS DUKE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. This is easily the best they've been at football since the early 1960s. Duke has been ranked ONCE in the last 52 years, and that was under Cutcliffe. Duke has been to 12 bowl games since the sport began, 1/3rd of which have taken place in the last 5 years under Cutcliffe.

They wouldn't fire him if he goes 0-12 for the next 3 years. He has a job for as long as he wants it, and they'll probably name the stadium after him when he retires.

[Dereich]

Toledo at Ohio

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Temple at Cincinnati

Washington at Stanford

Georgia at Auburn

Alabama at Mississippi State

Florida State at Clemson

TCU at Oklahoma

Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech

NC State at Boston College

Washington State at Utah

Virginia at Louisville

Wake Forest at Syracuse

Arizona State at UCLA

Indiana at Illinois

Nebraska at Minnesota

Michigan State at Ohio State

Rutgers at Penn State

Arkansas at LSU

Louisiana-Lafayette at Mississippi

Duke at Army

Iowa at Wisconsin

Michigan at Maryland

West Virginia at Kansas State

SMU at Navy

USC at Colorado

Kentucky at Vanderbilt

Western Kentucky at Marshall

UAB at UTSA

Purdue at Northwestern

Tennessee at Missouri

Notre Dame at Miami(FL)

Boise State at Colorado State


-I'm picking the Convicts over the Catholics because now that my team is a dumpster fire the main (positive, unlike Bama imploding) thing I want to see for the year is Mark Richt playing/beating Georgia. They can certainly do it; Miami has a good run defense and if Rosier is disciplined (IE the team has a positive turnover margin) I think Miami wins this one and reaches the championship undefeated.

-If its bad weather, Michigan State will beat Ohio State (see: Penn State, Michigan) and if its sunny they'll be wiped off the face of the earth. As my forecaster (thanks DFW) tells me it's an under 50% chance of rain, it's gotta be Ohio State.

-To hell with Georgia. Go gettem Tigers.

-TCU loses 54-21 and Baker Mayfield goes on to win the heisman. Only facts here.

-At some point people are going to remember that Washington has 1 loss and will almost definitely make the playoff if they win out. I wonder when that will happen.

-Clemson's defensive front is going to do R-rated violence to FSU's offensive line. RIP Blackman. Fire Trickett (and Kelly and Dawsey and everyone else not named "Fisher" "Odell" or "Brewster")

[Dereich]

Ohio at Akron

November 15

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois

November 17

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky
UNLV at New Mexico

November 18

TCU at Texas Tech
Michigan at Wisconsin
UCLA at USC
Maryland at Michigan State
Nebraska at Penn State
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Mississippi State at Arkansas
Purdue at Iowa
Minnesota at Northwestern
Texas A&M at Mississippi
Texas at West Virginia
Arizona at Oregon
California at Stanford
Rutgers at Indiana
UCF at Temple
SMU at Memphis
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Fresno State at Wyoming
Kentucky at Georgia
Navy at Notre Dame
Georgia Tech at Duke
Syracuse at Louisville
UAB at Florida
Army at North Texas
LSU at Tennessee
Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Marshall at Texas San Antonio
NC State at Wake Forest
Missouri at Vanderbilt
Air Force at Boise State

Dare to dream: UAB vaults over confused and headless Florida for a great end to their first year back. Someone is choking on their cupcake this week and Florida is my bet.

#11 TCU at Texas Tech
#17 Mississippi State at Arkansas
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Arizona at Oregon
Missouri at Vanderbilt

lol.

Yeah, those picks are absurd.

LOL, the only way I can possibly make up ground at this point is by picking some upsets that no one else picks, so ... why the  not??

If you think Pick Em suicide is the way to go........have at it, Tom. 

Those picks aren't THAT bad though? Texas Tech has played well enough that an upset at home, especially with TCU not really focused after the massive game last week, isn't unthinkable. Neither is Vandy beating Mizzou at home; Mizzou at times this season has looked like the worst team in FBS and Vandy always has a stout defense. And Oregon-Zona? Vegas has that as a pick'em right now; nothing at all crazy about picking Oregon at home. Arkansas over MSU and Ole Miss over A&M (Just saw that Ole Miss is apparently favored? What???) are kinda nuts.

[Dereich]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-college-football-playoffs-doomsday-scenarios/?ex_cid=538twitter

538's got a nice take on the potential chaos facing the College Football Playoff.

Personally, I think they're understating an undefeated UCF. I'd swap them out for Auburn or the TCU/Oklahoma loser on that fourth scenario.

Seriously, If I were on the committee, I would be giving serious thought to UCF, especially if they finish the season unbeaten.

I would not. What would be their signature win, Memphis?? UCF is not on the same level as the top-tier teams.

Bad take. UCF is very clearly a top 10 team, something confirmed by the eye test and most of the computer rankings. To fault a G5 team for failing to schedule teams that they somehow should have known would be good years in advance is just dumb. Georgia very clearly was not punished in the rankings for playing in the worst division in the P5 (a division worse than the Memphis-led AAC West, coincidentally) so for the committee to so punish UCF is dumb and inconsistent.

The G5 really should go ahead with their plan for a separate playoff; the P5 will raise hell about it since it'll definitely cost them recruits and prestige, but the system as-is has shown it will not treat them fairly.

[Dereich]

I don't know where they teach this level of cognitive dissonance. I'm dumbfounded.

What, suggesting a UCF team that remains unbeaten should be in the playoff? That's a credible argument to me.

Smilo is a big FCS/G5 person. I assume he was referring to Alabama_Indy.

[Dereich]

The point is that they still wouldn't have the necessary wins under such a set of circumstances, but ok

And my point is staying unbeaten should be rewarded no matter who you are, or who you've beaten.

So using your logic, what's keeping an independent like BYU or Notre Dame from scheduling really bad teams every game of the season? They could easily have "muh undefeated record." Would they be worthy of getting into the playoff?

If they won all those games, yes. But pride would prevent Notre Dame from doing that, and someone is going to be willing to play BYU, if only to fill a hole on it's own schedule.

So you would support an undefeated team with a schedule full of cupcakes over a 1 loss major conference champion?

In almost every circumstance yes. There's a thing called the eye test too. If the one loss champion struggled all season, (Wisconsin for example), they don't deserve to get in.

Also, I wouldn't call UCF's next two games...against USF, and against Memphis in AAC Championship game cupcakes. Both teams only have one loss.

They don't pass the eye test, they haven't played anyone. They are worse than last years Western Michigan squad. I would totally leave them out, give them a top tear non-playoff bowl and let them get slapped down by some better conference team.

Western Michigan ended up beating Wisconsin last year, so arguably they were better than Washington, who actually made it into the playoff.

Also, UCF did beat Navy, who lost 24-17 to #8 Notre Dame today. That alone probably passes the eye test, doesn't it?

I don't get how with 4 teams in the playoff, we still get undefeated teams left out. This is one of the top 2 or 3 reasons everyone wanted to get rid of the BCS anyway. Maybe we should just give up on the playoff system and let the Rose Bowl decide the champion like in the old days.

So beating a team (Navy) who lost by 7 to a team (Notre Dame) who got beat by 33 by Miami automatically makes you one of the best 4 teams in the country? Makes a whole lot of sense doesn't it?

It's worth noting that other than this week Miami(FL) has played well all season. Of course, if they lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, they're probably out of the playoff...

As for Western Michigan and Washington last year, it's worth remembering Washington played Alabama in the playoff semifinal. They didn't have a chance, and I wouldn't have expected Western Michigan to do better...however they certainly could have beaten Ohio State, had they replaced Washington, and the Committee decided on an Alabama/Clemson semifinal, based on their result against Wisconsin.

And I'm going to repeat the fact that neither South Florida or Memphis are cupcakes. Both only have one loss, and Memphis was ranked as of this week.

This is objectively false and tells me you have not watched any Miami games before VA Tech.  Miami played like ass against FSU, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina and are very VERY lucky to be undefeated. There was a very good reason they were underdogs at home against VA Tech and Notre Dame; the Virginia game is much more indicative of the season Miami has had than the ND or VA Tech games.

[Dereich]

Florida State (The Seminoles, remarkably can still make a bowl game if they win both this game and their game against Louisiana Monroe next week (which apparently is the same week as the ACC Championship game...would have caused all sorts of conflict if Florida State had made it there). Florida technically cannot make a bowl (unless their API is high enough that they qualify as a 5-6 or 5-7 team). The Seminoles need this game more, and they arguably have more talent on both sides of the ball, so I think they win this one...and they should beat Louisiana Monroe next week)

Florida's API is high enough to make a bowl at 5-6.

The FSU-Louisiana Monroe game was originally scheduled for week 2; it was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. It wasn't rescheduled until FSU was mathematically eliminated from the ACC Championship so there would be no conflict with that game. Also, they only rescheduled it after the win over Syracuse; as FSU has to pay ULM to play, they didn't want to reschedule it unless re-adding it would be necessary for bowl eligibility. There was no coincidence in this move. FSU's bowl streak is the longest in the nation at 35 in a row and the game was rescheduled to maintain it.

[Dereich]

I'm a TCU fan so I have tons of reasons to hate Baker Mayfield, but y'all crazy if you don't think he's winning the Heisman at this point.....

Clearly you haven't seen Bryce Love play this year.

Neither have the Heisman voters. The Heisman's bias against west coast players is well documented and even has its own section on the Heisman Wikipedia page. Bryce Love is nowhere near transcendent enough a player this year to overcome being on a west coast team that isn't playoff-bound.

[Dereich]

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/11/21/report-lsu-victory-would-not-save-kevin-sumlins-job/

Apparently Kevin Sumlin will be fired after the Texas A&M/LSU game, and Jimbo Fisher is the Aggies top choice to replace him.

This would appear to solve a lot of problems for both Texas A&M and Florida State...

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY THIS?

FLORIDA. STATE. AND. ITS. FANS. DO. NOT. WANT. JIMBO. GONE.

Replacing a national championship winning coach is not easy and nobody wants to do it, especially with other big fish on the market looking for coaches. The vast majority of the fanbase wants to give Jimbo a chance to right the ship by changing assistants and the administration still LOVES Fisher.

[Dereich]

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/11/21/report-lsu-victory-would-not-save-kevin-sumlins-job/

Apparently Kevin Sumlin will be fired after the Texas A&M/LSU game, and Jimbo Fisher is the Aggies top choice to replace him.

This would appear to solve a lot of problems for both Texas A&M and Florida State...

This is going to turn out the same way the Saban to Texas rumors turned out.

In other words, Jimbo is using A&M to leverage a raise out of FSU.

That's unlikely to happen either. Jimbo just got a raise last year that has been heavily criticized for being wildly in Jimbo's favor and his leverage didn't exactly go up this year. FSU wants him to return, but it won't go out of its way to stop him from leaving.

From his press conferences, it sounds like what he was really pressing for is a new football-only facility: basically the hottest new toy that coaches want to have to show off during recruiting. He's slightly more likely to get that, but the boosters already paid for renovated football dorms and a state of the art indoor practice facility in the last five years and Jimbo has sort of trashed the boosters in press conferences for not giving him everything immediately earlier this year so who knows.