Well, Michael Howard is Jewish, I doubt he'd be welcome in the White House Bible Classes!
Seriously though, the dislike of Howard is simply due to petty squabbling. It is likely that if the Conservatives won, Howard would still keep troops in Iraq. But, like Blair would not be swayed by any future intervention in Iraq. The Conservative Party will only do well if
1. Labour voters stay at home. That happened in 2001, but they stayed at home in constituencies with whomping great majorities so it didnt matter.
2. Labour voters switch to the Liberal Democrats in seats where it allows the Conservatives to win by 'default' because Labour votes switch and the Tories overtake Labour, even if their share of the vote stays the same
3. The ultra-nationalist BNP come third in a few seats such as Oldham. Why? All the other main parties, including the Tories, have an inbuilt 'ethnic' majorities within the local parties that have alienated working class white voters. Labour will still win in these seats, but very slightly
4. Scotland. New boundaries have seen a reduction in the number of constituencies here, which has affected Labour badly. If the Lib Dems, Conservatives or Scottish Nationalists make inroads in Scotland, it could make a slim Labour majority even slimmer
And finally 5.
Blair vs Brown. The real battle for the leadership is between Blair and his Chancellor Gordon Brown. This week has seen an extraordinary bust up between the two splattered all over the press. If this rift is evident during the campaign it could damage the PM. If Labour's majority falls to less than 50, then Brown becomes a whole lot stronger due to a fall in 'Blairite' MP's who tend to hold (relatively) marginal seats.
