UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[afleitch]

If the Tories get a majority then it puts to bed braying at the SNP for making it happen. If Labour held every seat in Scotland it lost to the SNP it wouldn't have made a blind bit of difference.

Otherwise very pleased that my October prediction was right and that my example seat of Bolton West was a Tory gain.

[afleitch]

Murphy pledges to stay on and fight for a Holyrood seat next year. Don't really think his position is viable, but I imagine not many people want that poisoned chalice anymore.

He will stand down. No question. The leadership will pass to the rump of the Labour Party left at Holyrood, probably to Neil Findlay.

[afleitch]

It would be useful, I think, if whoever eventually replaces Murphy is not someone who comes across as a sweaty salesman whenever placed under pressure; whatever other issues there 'may' be, I don't think that helped much.

Murphy pulled Labour further down after Lamont resigned. Labour were still in the low to mid 30's at that point. The fact Lamont resigned because of Murphy didn't help. The fact that Murphy became leader because London wanted him to didn't help. The fact he was supposed to be the 'successful' Blairite in contrast to Miliband didn't help. The fact the very first thing he seriously and I do mean seriously proposed in way of policy was to allow the Old Firm to 'sing their songs' and allow football crowds to have a 'wee drink' leaving the rest of the society didn't help.

He came across as a 'ned in a suit' and the sense of self entitlement that really has been the hallmark of his entire career that everyone who knew him and knew of him knew was a very real and very dangerous thing came to the fore in this campaign.

Scottish Labour's future is in Scottish Labour at Holyrood's hands. That is a good thing and well overdue.

[afleitch]

Worth noting that with SNP abstentions on strictly English only matters then the Tory majority for those votes will be substantial.

[afleitch]

Notice that the SNP majorities in the central belt are generally stronger than their old base.

[afleitch]

This map uses a colour scheme I used last time (I need to upload this for more elections) It shows levels of support with some indication of who the party in second place actually is. White is used for ‘Others’ namely the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales. It’s also used to represent the lone Green and UKIP MP’s in England as well as the Speaker.

It plainly illustrates not only how far the Lib Dems fell (and Labour in Scotland) but how the number of actual marginal seats as a result has diminished.

[afleitch]

Look at all that Labour red in central Scotland, Labour must have swept the board there?....

[afleitch]

However, if accurate it fits rather poorly with quite a lot of pundits' analysis of the election result.

Indeed. I will note that this point that it happens to fit the general pattern of results much better than said pundit-driven analysis...

Because pundits relied on the polls and the polls were sh!te.

It was clear as mud over the past year that the number of CON>LAB switchers was negligible and in a system that still remains a two way contest then that indicates little change at that level. The polls showed x number of LIB>LAB switchers which people then assumed would be a cross the country movement, paying no attention to where the Lib Dem voters were, what seats they found themselves in and why they had been voting Lib Dem in the first place for however many elections.

The ABC1 numbers speak volumes.

I'd like to see some Election Study stuff for Scotland, especially as the polls there also overestimated Labour

[afleitch]

The point of no return regarding Scottish Independence has very very very probably been crossed during this election campaign. It may quite plausibly take another generation, but my money'd be on rather less than that.

Ten years probably.

The truth is that independence was closer the day after the referendum than the day before it, simply because the votes had been cast. I wouldn't be surprised if it's simply granted without a vote by the next but one government.