If Canadians could vote in the US primaries

[King of Kensington]

Let's say Canadian provinces could vote in US primaries - how would they go in the 2016 cycle.  Of course we have to take into account when in the cycle these primaries would occur.

[King of Kensington]

I think Trump would do better in Ontario than in Alberta. 

[King of Kensington]

What would Trump's best non-Quebec riding be?  Oshawa?

[King of Kensington]

So Sanders wins Sikhs and First Nations, Clinton wins Jews, Chinese, Blacks and Inuit?

[King of Kensington]

I think Renfrew would also be strong from Trump, given its populist right leanings.

Mennonites (a significant conservative vote in the Prairies) would be for Cruz?  Or more "establishment"?

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to see how much of the "Ford Nation" vote would go to Trump. Despite similarities in personality, Ford never alienated immigrants the same way. However, in a US-like primary, chances are the non-white Ford voters would be voting in the Dem primary, leaving the GOP with the white members of Ford Nation. In this case, a Trump win in Etobicoke or Scarborough would be possible, if the GOP electorate turns out to be like the black belt. ie. 90% white, despite being in a minority-majority area.

Trump would likely do well with Italians, as Ford did.  

[King of Kensington]

I assume the "Republican demographic" looks kind of like Harper's Tories ca. 2004 or 2006. 

(I don't buy the crude extrapolations that say Leeds-Grenville would have voted 80% Obama or whatever).

[King of Kensington]

It also does raise interesting questions of how an unapologetic leftist who can cross the materialist/post-materialist divide, an establishment liberal that doesn't particularly excite (so not like Obama or Trudeau, Hillary is more like Paul Martin or something), a right-wing populist in the style of Trump/UKIP etc. would do in Canada.

Personally I think a Sanders-type leader who generates excitement would pretty much match the NDP map in 2011 under Layton.  Not that Layton was particularly left-wing in his last campaign, but I don't think any of the 30% of the electorate that voted NDP that year would have had difficulty voting for Sanders in a US election.

A Trump/UKIP-type party is hard: could it work both in Quebec and outside Quebec?  The Quebec City region seems the most open to such a party.  And maybe ridings like Renfrew and some rust belt ridings like Sarnia-Lambton.