Who wins the election?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think the election is leaning in Biden's favor, and that if current trends continue, he gets a version of Olowakani's 303 map, and that even if the EV is closer, his vote margin in key states is larger than in 2020 by a good deal. That's because  Donald Trump is an obectively awful candidate for any reasonable human being (which most Republicans are not). While I think Joe Biden has done as well with his term as any human being could have (and better than most would have), he is not seen as a particulary popular or successful President. Yet he remains a far, far superior choice to Donald Trump.
 
BUT there are very many "grey swans" stacked up against Biden  - things where we don't know if they will happen, but if they do happen, they will damage his chances badly. Examples include:

-a personal health crisis
-Trump dying (and being replaced by anyone short of Kristi "Puppykiller" Noem)
-domestic unrest or a major disaster abroad (and we're halfway to both of these, now)
-an economic crash
-a natural disaster with bad optics
(a natural disaster with good optics is one of the few grey swans that could help him)

I have no way to provide detailed odds, but I think "events continue without shocking changes and Biden wins solidly" is the single most likely outcome. Call it 55%. That's followed by "one or more low probability events happen the reduce Biden's vote to the point where Trump wins". Call that 40%. Then there's the truly unexpected stuff, which is about 5%.