2004 Democratic Primary

[StevenNick]

I think Bush will carry every state he carried in 2000 plus New Mexico, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota.

California, Washington, New York, Michigan, and Illinois are going to be competitive.

Here's my rationale:

New Mexico went Democrat in 2000 by the slimmest of margins.  Since 2000 Bush has increased his constituency more than enough to compensate for a 300-or-so vote loss there (Despite this third year slump he's just now coming out of Bush is looking good).  In New Jersey in 2003, Democrats won control of the state legislature, but only as a result of gerrymandering.  Republicans actually won a majority of the votes cast statewide.  Bush will win NJ in '04.

Depending on who the nominee is Bush's victory will be solid or a landslide.  Considering that the nominee seems likely to be Dean, a Bush landslide in '04 could may not be out of the question as some of those states I called competitive may line up with Bush.

[StevenNick]

If Al runs as an independent, Democrats are completely toast in 2004.  All the battleground states will go Bush.  It'll be a bloodbath with Bush skating to 350-400 electoral vote victory.  Popular vote is another story though.

[StevenNick]

If I had to guess I'd say that Al will run as an independent.  I think he really feels that the Democrats have ignored the needs of black voters.  From his point of view he can run in 2004, a race the dems probably won't win anyway, and spoil it for the nominee.  At least that way he can wield some influence in the democratic party in the future.

[StevenNick]

Probable Republican States:

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (
Louisiana (9)
Maine (4)
Minnesota (10)
Mississippi (6)
Missouri (11)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Ohio (20)
Oklahoma (7)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
South Carolina (
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Wyoming (3)

Tossup States:

California (55)
Illinois (21)
Michigan (17)
Washington (11)

Democratic States:

Delaware (3)
D.C. (3)
Hawaii (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)

Rep. 357
Dem. 77
Toss. 104

[StevenNick]

New Jersey as a republican state? are you crazy?!?!!? I take offense to that


Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and Wisconsin will also stay Dem. There is no evidence those states will swing to Bush. Just wishful thinking.

all 4 of these are Dem locks.

California (55)
Illinois (21)
Michigan (17)
Washington (11)


even Dean can win NJ

and if it's Gephardt/Edwards, we retain every state from 2000, perhaps gaining in Missouri and NH

It may sound crazy that I put NJ in the Republican column, but consider this:

Democrats solidified their control of the state legislature in 2003, but only because of district gerrymandering.  Republicans actually won a majority of votes cast statewide.  

Republicans have also made significant gains there in party ID.

Also, a lot of the victims of September 11 lived in New Jersey.  If Dean gets the nomination, which I believe he will, a lot of New Jersey residents may be driven to vote for Bush.

Maybe I should have put New Jersey as a possible turnover in '04 rather than probably, but as things stand right now I've got to give the advantage to the Bush.

[StevenNick]

Ohio will Stay GOP as the Rest of the States But Bush Might Pick up Washighton Oregon & Minnestoa & Iowa

wASHington is dem country as of now and i think it whould stay that way till 04 and beyond

Washington isn't as solidly democratic as you might think.  Democrats won the Governorship here the last two elections (1996, 2000) with a relatively moderate candidate running against incredibly weak republican.

Since September 11, Republicans have gone from a five point disadvantage in voter registration to a one point advantage.  Republicans control the state senate (albeit by the thinnest of margins) and Democrats only control the state house by a few votes.  Going into the 2004 election we have a solid, moderate candidate for Governor and a solid candidate for Senate.  Democrats running for Governor (now an empty seat) will face a bloody primary battle as Republicans rally around Rossi (the main republican candidate).  The democratic candidates are all further left than the current governor.

Although Bush is unpopular in the more urban areas of Western Washington, he's not unpopular in general.  I can't say that Washington is going to be solid Bush country in '04, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win the state.  And I also wouldn't be surprised if he carried Rossi and Nethercutt (candidates for governor and senator, respectively) along with him.

[StevenNick]

I also thought Dean looked rether relaxed on Hardball.  He answered every question honestly and didn't pull any punches.

I've changed my mind.  Democrats SHOULD nominate this man.

The only reason Dean did well on Hardball is because Chris Matthews was asking him SOFTBALL questions.  It was a total Dean lovefest.  It was pretty obvious that Matthews is more than a little enamored of the guy.  

In the last debate, Tom Brokaw actually asked Dean tough questions (especially about the Dean draft business) and Dean looked painfully uncomfortable.  He stammered his way through some nonsense BS answer and then attacked Bush.

Once Dean gets into general election and independents start to scrutinize his performance more carefully and he starts coming under attack by Bush, he's not going to come off so well.