My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[StevenNick]

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.

[StevenNick]

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.

Is that *think* or *hope*??

It's both.

Most of the polling in Iowa is conducted from a pool of "likely caucus goers" which means people that have attended caucuses in the past.  Perhaps a full half of Dean's turnout on caucus day could be from young people who have never attended caucuses before and aren't being included in the polls.  I would imagine that Dean is a solid five or six percent ahead of where he's polling right now in real support.

But we'll see I guess.

[StevenNick]

A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.

That would certainly shake things up a bit if Edwards won in Iowa.  Gephardt would be out.  Dean would be badly damaged.  Edwards could become the front runner.

[StevenNick]

If Dean does manage to pull it off in Iowa, would the results of the rest of the primaries be primarily a Dean sweep, or would Edwards/Kerry still provide for an exciting race?

I think it depends on how much Dean wins by and who comes in second.  If, say, Edwards come in second by just a couple of points, the media will report it is as a weak showing for Dean and a strong showing for Edwards.  If Dean and Gephardt finish one and two and Kerry or Edwards is a few points below that, I don't see that either of them (Kerry/Edwards) will be able to immediately replace Howard Dean as the front runner.

But, frankly, I expect Howard to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination.  I think the surges of Edwards and Kerry in Iowa and Clark in New Hampshire are simply too little, too late to stop the Dean machine.

[StevenNick]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

[StevenNick]

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.

Well gee, this really brings down my average!  At least I was right about Gephardt.

[StevenNick]

1.) Sen. John Kerry
2.) Sen. John Edwards
3.) Gov. Howard Dean
4.) Rep. Dick Gephardt

Net: Gephardt drops out this week and endorses either Kerry or Edwards

He'll endorse Clark! Dum-dum-dummm... The drama of it all. I love election years!

I think if Gephardt endorses anyone it'll be Kerry.