US House Redistricting: California

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I will provide a detailed analysis for each of the newly released congressional districts. Keep in mind that the districts are subject to change, however. When the final revised lines are released, I will be sure to make updates to this analysis.

Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita

This is Buck McKeon's district. His 25th district is an R+6 that went for Obama 49-48. %Hispanic has increased from 27% to 35%. The new lines give McCain a solid 51-45 edge. For some strange reason, Elton Gallegly and his home city of Simi Valley have been drawn into this district instead of remaining in the Ventura County-based district. This district stands out as one where partisan considerations may have had some influence in the line drawing. Gallegly could not defeat McKeon in a primary here and McKeon will hold this seat until he decides to retire, with George Runner being the likely successor. This district no longer contains the sparsely populated rural areas lying east.

San Diego/Chula Vista

This is Susan Davis' district. Her 53rd is a D+14 district that gave Obama 68% in 2008, which is reduced to only 59% under the new lines. This should still be enough to keep her safe. Bob Filner, who is more likely to run for Mayor than re-election to Congress, has ben drawn into this district that stretches from El Cajon to Chula Vista. No longer does this district straddle the coast to Imperial Beach, but the territory is Democratic enough to keep Susan Davis safe without adding enough Latinos to open her up to a potential primary challenge.

Palm Springs/Coachella Valley

This is Mary Bono Mack's district, soaking up most of what the current 45th district contains. The district moves slightly north and avoids taking in Moreno Valley, but becomes about 1 point more Republican. Mary Bono Mack wasn't too vulnerable in this R+3 district to begin with, but under these new lines it should be safer for her. If she decided to retire, however, it would be tougher for a Republican to hold; the district has grown from 50.1% White to being plurality Hispanic, with many Hispanic Democrats termed out of the state legislature aching to run. As the Latino population grows (and it will), expect the district to become more competitive down ticket.

Concord/San Ramon

This is what should be George Miller's district. A few points less Democratic, but still overwhelmingly so, it has been shifted southward away from Vallejo. There isn't anything significant to note here.

San Gabriel Valley- El Monte/Covina

David Dreier and his home town of San Dimas can be found in this district, but I wouldn't call it Dreier's district. It bears little resemblance to his gerrymandered district that pieced together the more Republican areas of suburban Los Angeles County and stretched out into Rancho Cucamonga. This new district has managed to break the 60% threshold for Obama, which should be enough to overwhelm Dreier, who holds a 51% Obama district. The district is an eye-popping 63% Hispanic (Dreier's current district is majority White). Assemblymember Anthony Portantino, who will be term-limited come 2012, has been gearing up for a Congressional bid and currently resides in Dreier's district. His home of La Canada Flintridge, though, is not in this district. Portantino may decide he wants to run here regardless of where the lines land him, as he has a nice shot at a Congressional seat if he runs here. Judy Chu may decide to run here since much of her current seat is contained in the new district, but her home is not. Dreier does say he intends to run for re-election, but his chances seem rather dim at this point.

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looks like a 36-17 map which sounds pretty good.

Looks like a map with lots of flexibility to me. Republicans could win up to 23 seats on this map, and in 2010 they would have won 21 seats with these lines despite Democratic turnout being boosted by variables such as Prop 19 and Meg Whitman's disastrous spending spree. If Republicans don't solve their Latino problem reasonably soon, this map will end up causing some pain but if the economy continues to worsen and Republicans stay strong where they need to, they will do alright. Democrats are actually hurt by this map in the Republican strongholds of Orange County and the Central Valley. It's a trade-off: Republicans have risked security for possibility. It could gain, it could drain, but whatever happens will be better than maps cooked up by Brown and the Democratic legislature for them, and that is what really matters for California Republicans.

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The full counts on the California districts

Under the current district maps, Gold said Hispanic voters have a fair chance of electing a candidate of their choice in seven of California's 53 congressional districts, based on population and other factors. There are 10 state Assembly districts, out of 80, where Hispanics hold more than 50 percent of the voting-age population and six of 40 state Senate districts where that is true.

The proposed maps do not increase the number of Hispanic-leaning congressional and Assembly districts despite the explosion in the Hispanic population and reduce the number of state Senate districts where Hispanics hold sway to four.




10% of state assembly districts, 10% of state senate districts, and 13% of Congressional districts. Sounds quite fair.

Hispanic votes count just as much as any other ethnic group's votes do. I truly fail to see how they can not elect the candidate of their choice in the same way that any other race would. I thought we were a "post-racial" society.

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Western Los Angeles

Karen Bass' ridiculously Democratic district has few changes. Next.

Oceanside/Carlsbad

This would be Darrell Issa's district. The 49th district he currently holds is R+10 and creeps into Riverside County. This new district stretches along San Diego County's coast, absorbing coastal areas of Orange County as well. Sitting at 49% Obama, Issa should be able to hold this seat with no real worries, although fellow Republican Brian Bilbray has been drawn into the district. It makes more sense for Bilbray to run in a district covering more of his current territory, but since that district is more Democratic, nothing can be certain. Issa would be favored in a primary between the two.

Downey/Norwalk

Grace Napolitano's district has been transformed radically, cutting out Pomona and everything in between and being consolidated to densely populated minority communities in southern Los Angeles County. Safely Democratic, as one would expect, albeit less so than before. Just why they stuck La Mirada in there, I will never know. Culturally, it is different enough to merit being placed in an Orange County dominated district.