US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Devils30]

I think NC-08,13 will be tough for any Dem but McIntyre will survive more easily than anyone expects in NC-07. That district is 3% more R now but he won 54% in a very Republican year. His numbers in the prior years were between 65-75%! In a neutral political environment it's tough to see him as any less than a 4:1 favorite. Even if you take 3% off his 2010 margin he still wins re-election and that possibly could be as bad as it can get for him.

[Devils30]

If the GOP had any brains they would just give McIntyre a safe district that extends all the way into Charlotte. That way they would have 9 seats in the state. Even making nc-07 3% more R its unlikely they'll defeat him so might as well just make it safer.

[Devils30]

NC has a decent amount of moderate white democrats and these 55% McCain districts do leave openings for types like shuler and mcintyre against a far right R

[Devils30]

The new maps are even more absurd...I honestly wouldn't be shocked if this is rejected by DOJ and then the courts.