US House Redistricting: Iowa

[Devils30]

After last night's results with the suburbs still very strong for Dems, think maybe the GOP decides they need to shore up IA-1 and 2 and instead packs Iowa City into 3 and creates a Dem seat for Axne while making things a very safe 3-1 for the decade. I know the state is trending R but midterm turnout patterns with whites can threaten an incumbent only elected by 6 votes!

[Devils30]

Here is the proposed Congressional map in DRA, shaded with 2020 Pres. numbers. The first two districts (the east ones) are about 19,500 people off from the ideal population.



IA-01: Biden +7.8
IA-02: Trump + 10.4
IA-03: Biden +0.2
IA-04: Trump +31.5

I don't see this map surviving.

Republicans might just go for it, the IA-3 is gonna be a republican district given trends soon. It even voted against greenfield.

Eh, Dallas and Polk have the vast majority of the population in that district and both are moving left.

This won't pass but you wonder if maybe they cut a deal to make IA-3 a clear lean Dem seat in exchange for 1,2 being like Trump +8-12.

[Devils30]

Again I don't think this passes but maybe it makes the sides cut a deal where Axne gets Polk, Story and a Dem trending Dallas county in exchange for the SE Iowa district being like a Trump mid single- digit district. A 2-1-1 map in a neutral year with it 3-1 Trump 2020.

[Devils30]

Again I don't think this passes but maybe it makes the sides cut a deal where Axne gets Polk, Story and a Dem trending Dallas county in exchange for the SE Iowa district being like a Trump mid single- digit district. A 2-1-1 map in a neutral year with it 3-1 Trump 2020.

Dems would be idiots to agree to that. Which is why, given that Dems are incompetent fools who love to unilaterally disarm when it comes to redistricting, it is quite plausible that is exactly what could happen.

Keeping as many vulnerable Dems in red states as possible is Dems key to 2022. That plus offensive opportunities in CA, IL, NY, MD, NM is how they hold the House. Axne getting a safe IA-3 helps the goal. But I agree, I want at least a competitive SE Iowa seat, even if it is around Trump +4.

[Devils30]

Little change, Dems would have a chance at 2/4 in a 2020 type year, 3/4 in a 2018 and lose all 4 in a 2010-14. Axne gets basically the same district that could trend D if Dallas, Polk swing more D.