Ontario 2018 election

[Krago]

Mitzi Hunter is at 0% support in Scarborough-Guildwood.  Not lookin' good for her.

[Krago]

EKOS is out.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/997688156035141632

PC - 39.1%
NDP - 29.8%
Lib - 23.3%
Green - 5.4%
Oth - 2.4%


Lots of other tables on Twitter at @VoiceOfFranky, but so far no regional breakdown or Best Premier numbers.

[Krago]

Mainstreet is out.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/gap-between-ndp-and-pcs-narrows-while-liberals-hold-steady/

PC - 41.9%
NDP - 29.3%
Lib - 22.3%
Green - 5.0%
Oth - 1.4%

[Krago]

But if every penny the candidates paid ($20,000) went directly to the students ($200 x 100), where is the profit?  It would seem like a very dicey, quasi-illegal thing to do without expecting some reward.

Who would organize such a campaign just to gain access to 29 potential Ontario MPPs? (*cough* Putin *cough*)  And how were these 29 people recruited?  Kijiji?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-battle-for-the-ballot-inside-the-bitter-nominations-that-divided-the/

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Great article. Thanks for the link.

So there was no hidden conspiracy. All the cheating was obvious but nobody seemed give (much of) a ‘fig’.  The sad thing is that it probably will have a minimal impact on the actual results, so there will be no incentive to fix it for the next time.

[Krago]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is. Doug Ford is a man of reason, and the liberal biased media is not going to change my mind nor the minds of others. I'm in a traditionally liberal district, but I can tell the PCs will pick it up easily. London-Fanshawe is the only area in my backyard I see going NDP, which Teresa Armstrong picked up by 27 points in the last election.

You see Andrew Lawton winning in London West?  Really?


Really?

[Krago]

A friend is volunteering in Niagara Centre.  Over one-third of the population (35%) lives in the northern part of the riding (South St. Catharines, Thorold), but the Returning Office and all three advance polling stations are in the southern part (Welland, Port Colborne).

https://voterinformationservice.elections.on.ca/en/election/2-general-election-jun-7-2018/68-niagara-centre?tab=beforeElectionInPerson

It's not partisan, just incompetence.

[Krago]

Here is a table showing the 2014 eDay results (no advance or special polls) for the largest municipalities in Ontario:

Municipality	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN
Toronto	48.8%	22.9%	22.7%	3.9%
Ottawa	45.1%	33.5%	14.2%	6.2%
Mississauga	49.7%	28.2%	15.8%	3.2%
Hamilton	32.4%	22.2%	38.3%	5.3%
Brampton	39.9%	22.3%	32.4%	3.5%
London	26.7%	26.1%	40.4%	4.7%
Markham	48.2%	35.5%	11.3%	3.3%
Vaughan	51.2%	34.1%	10.6%	2.2%
Kitchener	38.1%	27.3%	26.7%	6.1%
Burlington	43.2%	36.5%	14.7%	4.2%
Oakville	48.6%	37.1%	9.2%	3.8%
Windsor	28.4%	13.8%	51.2%	4.4%
Greater Sudbury	31.0%	12.6%	52.0%	3.8%
Richmond Hill	46.7%	36.4%	11.7%	3.3%
Oshawa	19.8%	30.7%	45.5%	3.9%
St. Catharines	38.4%	29.1%	27.4%	3.9%
Guelph	40.7%	20.4%	18.3%	19.9%
Whitby	33.0%	40.2%	22.0%	4.4%
Barrie	40.5%	35.1%	17.1%	6.6%
Kingston	40.4%	20.5%	31.4%	7.2%
Cambridge	38.7%	31.0%	23.1%	5.9%
Waterloo	30.4%	26.0%	37.6%	5.2%
Thunder Bay	55.3%	9.3%	28.7%	3.5%
Ajax	51.5%	27.7%	17.1%	3.1%
Chatham-Kent	23.7%	37.7%	31.9%	5.0%
Milton	43.6%	36.3%	15.1%	3.6%

[Krago]

Here is a quick-and-dirty seat projection for Toronto and the GTA using the Ipsos numbers as compared to the 2014 general election.

Electoral District	Winning Candidate	Party	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn
Ajax	Monique Hughes	NDP	32%	30%	36%	2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill	Michael Parsa	PC	28%	39%	29%	2%
Brampton Centre	Sara Singh	NDP	23%	26%	47%	2%
Brampton East	Gurratan Singh	NDP	19%	15%	63%	2%
Brampton North	Kevin Yarde	NDP	24%	25%	47%	2%
Brampton South	Paramjit Gill	NDP	28%	28%	41%	2%
Brampton West	Jagroop Singh	NDP	28%	24%	45%	2%
Burlington	Jane McKenna	PC	26%	38%	32%	2%
Durham	Joel Usher	NDP	21%	34%	42%	2%
King--Vaughan	Stephen Lecce	PC	31%	34%	32%	2%
Markham--Stouffville	Paul Calandra	PC	29%	36%	32%	2%
Markham--Thornhill	Logan Kanapathi	PC	31%	36%	29%	2%
Markham--Unionville	Billy Pang	PC	27%	41%	28%	2%
Milton	Parm Gill	PC	26%	39%	32%	2%
Mississauga Centre	Laura Kaminker	NDP	32%	28%	37%	2%
Mississauga East--Cooksville	Tom Takacs	NDP	31%	30%	36%	2%
Mississauga--Erin Mills	Farina Hassan	NDP	30%	32%	35%	2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore	Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	31%	35%	31%	2%
Mississauga--Malton	Nikki Clarke	NDP	29%	24%	44%	2%
Mississauga--Streetsville	Jacqueline Gujarati	NDP	31%	31%	35%	2%
Newmarket--Aurora	Christine Elliott	PC	27%	38%	31%	2%
Oakville	Stephen Crawford	PC	30%	39%	28%	2%
Oakville North--Burlington	Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	28%	38%	31%	2%
Oshawa	Jennifer French	NDP	12%	32%	53%	3%
Pickering--Uxbridge	Nerissa Cariño	NDP	29%	34%	34%	2%
Richmond Hill	Daisy Wai	PC	29%	37%	30%	2%
Thornhill	Gila Martow	PC	26%	45%	25%	2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge	Steven Del Duca	Lib	35%	29%	33%	2%
Wellington--Halton Hills	Ted Arnott	PC	18%	48%	30%	3%
Whitby	Lorne Coe	PC	20%	42%	35%	2%
York--Simcoe	Caroline Mulroney	PC	21%	41%	34%	2%
Beaches--East York	Rima Berns-McGown	NDP	22%	26%	49%	2%
Davenport	Marit Stiles	NDP	25%	21%	51%	2%
Don Valley East	Denzil Minnan-Wong	PC	32%	40%	25%	2%
Don Valley North	Vincent Ke	PC	28%	46%	23%	2%
Don Valley West	Jon Kieran	PC	30%	47%	20%	2%
Eglinton--Lawrence	Robin Martin	PC	30%	48%	20%	2%
Etobicoke Centre	Kinga Surma	PC	27%	47%	23%	2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore	Christine Hogarth	PC	26%	47%	24%	2%
Etobicoke North	Mahamud Amin	NDP	25%	35%	36%	2%
Humber River--Black Creek	Tom Rakocevic	NDP	25%	23%	49%	2%
Parkdale--High Park	Bhutila Karpoche	NDP	21%	25%	50%	2%
Scarborough--Agincourt	Aris Babikian	PC	27%	47%	23%	2%
Scarborough Centre	Christina Mitas	PC	30%	35%	32%	2%
Scarborough--Guildwood	Roshan Nallaratnam	PC	27%	41%	28%	2%
Scarborough North	Raymond Cho	PC	21%	41%	35%	2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park	Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	26%	37%	34%	2%
Scarborough Southwest	Doly Begum	NDP	27%	35%	35%	2%
Spadina--Fort York	Chris Glover	NDP	26%	31%	39%	2%
Toronto Centre	Suze Morrison	NDP	33%	30%	34%	2%
Toronto--Danforth	Peter Tabuns	NDP	20%	22%	54%	2%
Toronto--St. Paul's	Andrew Kirsch	PC	32%	40%	24%	2%
University--Rosedale	Jessica Bell	NDP	27%	33%	37%	2%
Willowdale	Stan Cho	PC	28%	46%	23%	2%
York Centre	Roman Baber	PC	26%	44%	27%	2%
York South--Weston	Faisal Hassan	NDP	26%	24%	47%	2%

[Krago]

New Pollara poll:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-only-the-ndp-is-gaining-support/

NDP - 38%
PC - 37%
Lib - 18%


NDP leading in Halton/Peel.

Men: PC 41, NDP 34, Lib 18
Women: NDP 43, PC 32, Lib 19

Horwath +29
Ford -17
Wynne -42

[Krago]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

Old news.  Your boss beat you to it a couple of hours ago.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/999648270090579969

[Krago]

(a)  Has anybody here signed up for the Mainstreet Daily Tracking?  Please PM me the Guelph numbers if they post them.

(b)  Does anybody post here?  https://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php  They seem rather 'optimistic' about Liberal chances.

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

[Krago]

(c)  A buddy and I are driving around Toronto on Saturday looking at lawn signs.  Is there any restaurant in T.O. that is a known political hangout, like the Gardenia in Strathroy or the Blue Star in Welland?

LOL, what?

A city like Toronto or Ottawa with lots of staffers I get, but what does it even mean for a restaurant in Strathroy to be a known political hangout?

http://www.ekospolitics.com/articles/TheStar22Jan2006a.pdf

https://www.gettyimages.ca/event/stephen-harper-rallies-voters-in-ontario-56627831#/conservative-party-leader-stephen-harper-shakes-hands-with-supporters-picture-id56641425

[Krago]

Guelph Riding poll by Mainstreet

https://www.guelphmercury.com/news-story/8630991-greens-lead-in-guelph-poll/

Schreiner (Green) - 31.7%
Mlynarz (NDP) - 28.0%
Ferraro (PC) - 25.3%
Castaldi (Liberal) - 11.9%

[Krago]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.

After the disastrous 1990 election, the Liberals picked a leader from Thunder Bay.  How did that turn out?

[Krago]

Back in 2007, I convinced my Mom to vote yes on the Ontario MMP referendum by telling her that it would be the final nail in Mike Harris' coffin.

My mother likes to hear the words 'Mike Harris' and 'coffin' in the same sentence.

[Krago]

Something tells me that we've reached Peak Horwath in the polls.  

The PCs seem to be suffering no ill effects from their various scandals (Remember the 407?) and lacking a costed platform.  The Liberals have decided that the Business Liberals are a lost cause, and their only way to avoid catastrophe is to regain some Progressive Liberals from the NDP.  And the NDP bozo eruptions keeping continuing.

The Liberals would rather rebuild for four years under a Ford majority government than face being sidelined by Premier Horwath.  Care or cuts; Kathleen Wynne has made her choice.  And she's not sorry.

[Krago]

Here is a chart that I've prepared that tries to predict possible outcomes based on PC and NDP polling.

[Krago]

New Poll from the Angus Reid Institute:

https://ipolitics.ca/2018/05/30/ontario-ndp-pcs-in-dead-heat-angus-reid-poll/

http://angusreid.org/ontario-election-2018/

NDP - 39%
PC - 37%
Lib - 17%
Green - 5%
Other - 2%


Best Premier: Horwath 34%, Ford 25%, Wynne 15%

[Krago]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

All three post-debate polls are showing the NDP opening up a big lead in Toronto/416 (and I would be very surprised if Pollara didn't as well).

Angus Reid: NDP 40%, PC 28%, Lib 24%, Grn 7%
Mainstreet: NDP 40.9%, PC 28.7%, Lib 25.5%, Grn 3.2%
Innovative: NDP 39%, PC 28%, Lib 24%, Grn 7%

[Krago]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.

I was polled by Forum by two days ago.

Well, I guess we have to go to other conspiracies to explain why Forum is junk.

Here's a Forum poll for Spadina-Fort York from the 2015 federal election.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Spadina-Fort%20York%20News%20Release%20(2015%2008%2006)%208311%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Go to page 3, and check out the 18-34 demographic, both the sample size and the candidate data.  I can't believe that a reputable pollster would publish this.

[Krago]

More LIUNA riding polls:

http://liunalocal183.ca/News/ViewArticle/tabid/70/ArticleId/289/LIUNA-COMMISSIONED-POLLS-SHOW-WYNNE-DEL-DUCA-LIBERALS-PAYING-PRICE-FOR-ANTI-LIUNA-BUDGET.aspx

All 14 ridings show a lead for the Tories.

Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill: PC 45%, NDP 27%, Lib 16%
Brampton Centre: PC 45%, NDP 33%, Lib 13%
Brampton North: PC 42%, NDP 30%, Lib 17%
Brampton South: PC 37%, NDP 34%, Lib 20%
Etobicoke North: PC 49%, NDP 19%, Lib 21%
Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas: PC 42%, NDP 38%, Lib 12%
Markham Thornhill: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Erin Mills: PC 42%, NDP 26%, Lib 21%
Mississauga Lakeshore: PC 49%, NDP 24%, Lib 19%
Oakville North Burlington: PC 38%, NDP 27%, Lib 17%
Scarborough Centre: PC 48%, NDP 25%, Lib 15%
Scarborough North: PC 45%, NDP 21%, Lib 23%
Vaughan–Woodbridge: PC 54%, NDP 18%, Lib 19%
York Centre: PC 48%, NDP 24%, Lib 17%

[Krago]

Hatman are you starting to see a similar OLP rebound as Mainstreet is seeing over the last couple of days?

Frank Graves‏ @VoiceOfFranky 
Replying to @quito_maggi @russianbot3001

We also see OLP rebound . Just not sure it means much at this stage

7:16 PM - 31 May 2018

[Krago]

New poll from a company I've never heard of, based on 603 decided voters.

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NDP 39%
PC 38%
Lib 18%
Grn 4%

[Krago]

New poll from a company I've never heard of, based on 603 decided voters.

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/01/ontario-2018/

NDP 39%
PC 38%
Lib 18%
Grn 4%

I don't know about you, but 603 seems like a really, really small sample size.

An online poll with a small sample size from an unknown company.

If it shows the PCs in the lead:  Junk poll

If it shows the NDP in the lead:  Written by the Finger of God on stone tablets hewn from the living rock of Mount Sinai.

[Krago]

I did explicitly point out if you know what you're looking for - i.e. it's not a question of counting signs and saying that the party with the most in a given district will win (lol no), but looking for certain patterns. Essentially they're a good way to gauge electoral enthusiasm.

I grew up in Windsor, Ontario.  Herb Gray held Windsor West for almost forty years.  In every federal election, huge Herb Gray signs were plastered on almost every lawn of the big houses that lined Talbot Rd, the road that connected the 401 to Huron Line.

When I drove home just before the 2002 by-election, I was shocked that there was not a single Liberal sign to greet me.  I decided that must mean one of two things: either there weren't enough volunteers to phone through their sign list, or they did call and the residents said no.  Either way, it wasn't a good portent for Liberal success.  They lost the by-election.