Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[greenforest32]

That's a big shift for 4 months.

Not really; the margin of error is +/-3.5%.

We really need more polls to accurately see the trend. I'd love to see polls for each state every 6 months on a variety of issues. Before PPP got involved we had even less.

[greenforest32]

New New Mexico numbers are out:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 45%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1219424.pdf

Last NM results from June 2011: 42% legal, 48% illegal, 10% not sure.

[greenforest32]

Actually I have no specific opinion of anal sex one way or another, and my opinion of sex in general is much more negative than you might think.

Do tell.

[greenforest32]

I don't like it, and I intellectually understand but am viscerally baffled by why other people do so much.

You don't like it personally or you don't like the idea that other people are doing it? In either case, why?

I think there are all sorts of really creepy power dynamics bound up in it

Power dynamics like what? People of different ages or positions of authority (boss-employee, teacher-student, etc)?

I have serious concerns about the philosophical possibility of respecting the agency of a sexual partner.

I am equal-opportunity about all of this with regards to gender.

? What, like you're not sure it would actually be consenting? Not sure I understand.

[greenforest32]

The creation of a power tension between different people in general. I actually have a somewhat more positive attitude towards BDSM because I feel it's more honest about this. There are philosophical reasons for this that might take a little while to explain; some of the reasons are, in my case, religious, but they don't necessarily have to be religious to make sense (since I've elucidated them in my Philosophy Club to not entirely negative or confused response and I'm my Philosophy Club's token religious-in-a-remotely-conventional-way person). So I guess my explanation to you would depend on the extent to which you're interested in my interpretation of what power is and how it works in this case.

I'm willing to read your interpretation.

I'm not sure consent is entirely possible on the most basic level, but it is for all practical intents and purposes, so my main concern actually has to do with 'mak[ing] the loved person an Object of appetite' (quoting Immanuel Kant here). Obviously there are ways to ameliorate this. I'm not one of those crazies who insists that anybody who has non-procreative sex is automatically evil. But my understanding of sexuality does come from both a kind of baffled and a kind of unnerved place.

Googles

So basically sex is wrong because people do it out of physical appetite and this appetite disregards the nonphysical aspect of a person (just having sex with a body) so that you're just having sex with a thing/object?

Meh, that seems pretty weird. There is obviously a person inside the body which is why you can rape a person but not rape a sex doll and I'm sure plenty of people have sex with not just the intention of making themselves feel good, but making their partner feel good too.

Even then, I don't see why wanting to do something purely for physical reasons is wrong. So what if you and the person you're having sex with are just using your bodies as a thing to make yourselves feel good?

[greenforest32]

New Virginia numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 53%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_1222.pdf

Last VA PPP results from July 2011: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 14% not sure

[greenforest32]

More North Carolina numbers

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 56%
Would vote against it - 34%
Not sure - 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011212.pdf

NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

[greenforest32]

That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

P.S. - What about the map?

[greenforest32]

So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta.  

I think it's pretty likely Democrats will break the tie in the OR state house and win the state legislature in 2012 but our situation is a little different than Washington's as our ban on gay marriage is constitutional while Washington's is statutory (probably due to the fact that WA doesn't allow for constitutional initiatives[1] and Democrats controlled one/both chambers of the state legislature and never pushed for a constitutional ban like Republicans are doing in MN/NC after finally winning those state legislatures after decades of split control at the best).

That means their state legislature can legalize it on its own, while in Oregon, any change to the state constitution requires a public referendum which means the only way to legalize it is for an initiative (which groups have said they will push for in 2014 after deciding against it in 2012) or the legislature to vote to refer a repeal.

Anyway, it's probably going to pass here in 2013/2014, especially with the momentum of it passing in Washington. I think Illinois and Hawaii will be considering it soon too even though they just recently passed civil unions but that's what you get when you opt for the half-way measure when the issue is progressing so quickly.

[1]:


edit: never mind about the odd-numbered year thing. I'm thinking of some bill that never passed and looking back we've had plenty of measures in odd-numbered years

[greenforest32]

New Texas numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 29%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0125.pdf

TX PPP results from September 2011: 29% legal, 61% illegal, 10% not sure

New Minnesota numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 48%
No - 44%
Not sure - 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012712.pdf

MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

edit: whoops, typo

[greenforest32]

Didn't Washington make it legal?

Yeah but there hasn't been any new polls for them yet. I do expect this year's events will shift Washington more in favor.

[greenforest32]

New Washington numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal...............................................................49%
Illegal ..............................................................44%
Not sure ..........................................................7%

If there was a referendum on the new law
legalizing same-sex marriage, would you vote
to uphold the law, or would you vote to repeal
it?

Would vote to uphold the law..........................50%
Would vote to repeal it ....................................46%
Not sure .........................................................4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

WA PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 44% illegal, 10% not sure

[greenforest32]

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/29/4299164/support-for-gay-marriage-takes.html

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[greenforest32]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1712

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[greenforest32]

New Maine numbers:

In general, do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal...............................................................54%
Illegal ..............................................................41%
Not sure ..........................................................5%

Do you favor a law allowing marriage licenses
for same-sex couples that protects religious
freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be
required to perform such a marriage in violation
of their religious beliefs?

Yes - 47%
No - 32%
Not sure - 21%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_0307.pdf

ME PPP results from October 2011: 51% legal, 42% illegal, 8% not sure
ME PPP results from March 2011: 47% legal, 45% illegal, 8% not sure

[greenforest32]

March 2012 Massachusetts numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 58%
Illegal .............................................................. 31%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_322121.pdf

MA PPP results from September 2011: 60% legal, 30% illegal, 10% not sure
MA PPP results from June 2011: 59% legal, 33% illegal, 8% not sure

Come on, somebody get to those 15 unpolled states

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Colorado numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 53%
Illegal .............................................................. 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_041312.pdf

CO PPP results from December 2011: 47% legal, 43% illegal, 10% not sure
CO PPP results from August 2011: 45% legal, 45% illegal, 10% not sure

Damn look at that age gap:

18-29 y/o - 77% legal, 23% illegal, 0% not sure
30-45 y/o - 52% legal, 40% illegal, 7% not sure
46-65 y/o - 58% legal, 35% illegal, 7% not sure
65+ y/o - 28% legal, 59% illegal, 13% not sure

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Virginia numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 50%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_VA_050412.pdf

VA PPP results from December 2011: 34% legal, 53% illegal, 13% not sure
VA PPP results from July 2011: 35% legal, 52% illegal, 14% not sure

[greenforest32]

More May 2012 North Carolina numbers

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 55%
Would vote against it - 39%
Not sure - 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_506.pdf

NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

[greenforest32]

May 2012 Ohio numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 35%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_050912.pdf

OH PPP results from October 2011: 32% legal, 55% illegal, 13% not sure
OH PPP results from August 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

[greenforest32]

April 2012 Montana numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050412.pdf

MT PPP results from November 2011: 37% legal, 51% illegal, 12% not sure

May 2012 New Hampshire numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 57%
Illegal .............................................................. 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_051612.pdf

NH PPP results from July 2011: 51% legal, 38% illegal, 11% not sure

[greenforest32]

May 2012 North Carolina poll #2:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 34%
Illegal .............................................................. 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Do you think being gay should be a felony, or
not?

Being gay should be a felony ..........................   8%
It should not ....................................................  85%
Not sure ..........................................................   6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_miscellaneousNC_051712.pdf

NC PPP results from May 2012: 34% legal, 57% illegal, 9% not sure
NC PPP results from January 2012: 32% legal, 57% illegal, 12% not sure
NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

May 2012 Iowa poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 44%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_051712.pdf

IA PPP results from Ocotober 2011: 41% legal, 48% illegal, 11% not sure
IA PPP results from August 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure

May 2012 New Jersey poll:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1750

[greenforest32]

May 2012 Pennsylvania poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 39%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_052312.pdf

PA PPP results from November 2011 - 36% legal, 52% illegal, 12% not sure
PA PPP results from July 2011 - 38% legal, 51% illegal, 11% not sure

[greenforest32]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/maryland-polling-memo.html

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My favorite cross-tabs from the poll:

[greenforest32]

May 2012 Michigan poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MiscellaneousMI_053112.pdf

MI PPP results from July 2011: 33% legal, 53% illegal, 14% not sure

May 2012 Missouri poll:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 36%
Illegal .............................................................. 52%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_060112.pdf

MO PPP results from September 2011: 32% legal, 59% illegal, 9% not sure