SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Talleyrand]

So, it's a teabagger vs a douchebagger in the runoff.

Unfortunately either one is still heavily favored over Colbert-Busch.

I hope the tea partier takes out Sanford in the runoff; he seems like a much weaker candidate than Sanford, who has enough political skill and clout to easily win despite his prior scandals. Not that it matters much in a 40% Obama district.

[Talleyrand]

Most of Platt's voters voted Romney!

I strongly suspect that many of them are Republicans who feel a civic obligation to vote, but do not want to vote for either Sanford or a Democrat, so will be voting for Platt as a safe protest vote instead of staying home.  There would be more of those safe protest votes if either the Libertarian or Constitution parties had put up a candidate.

Even if Platt's to the left of the Democrats?  And besides, why do so many people think Nader cost Gore the 2000 election if some Republican-leaning voters who didn't necessarily want Bush didn't vote for him?  I'm not arguing that they're right, I'm just asking you how that figures.
Anyway, I have no idea why a state with a large religious conservative population like South Carolina, in a party with a powerful religious conservative constituency, would nominate a womanizer like Sanford for Congress.  The worst part about it is that he'll lose to, of all people, Stephen Colbert's sister.

I agree it's ridiculous that he has somehow managed to bring himself low enough to put a district this Republican at serious risk of takeover, but judging Elizabeth Colbert-Busch simply for the fact of being Stephen's sister strikes me as silly. She's a very accomplished businesswoman in her own right...

[Talleyrand]

Mark Sanford- 50.1%
Elizabeth Colbert Busch- 45.6%
Eugene Platts- 4.3%

[Talleyrand]

A little bit of Dorchester County just came in- Colbert Busch leads there with 56.6%, which is above the benchmark set by DKE, but since we have no idea where in the area that's from, I don't think we can make too much out of it. Looks like she's underperforming what she needs to get in Berkeley, but outperforming in Charleston as well.

[Talleyrand]

The votes from Charleston are just absentees, according to Dave Wasserman, so they may not be representative of the county as a whole.

[Talleyrand]

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Looks like the absentees are done, but he still doesn't see Colbert Busch gaining enough on Obama to win.

As for Beaufort County, with 81% in, Colbert Busch has less than 47% of the vote, meaning she's underperforming DKE's benchmark by 2%, and consistently across the district if Wasserman is to be believed.

[Talleyrand]

Damn...down to 51% ECB in Charleston. 51-48 Sanford.

With 20% more in, that means she's underperforming by 2% again, but Wasserman says he forgot to add some of the votes she got on the "Working Families" line, so she may be doing a little bit better.

[Talleyrand]

With close to half the district it and Colbert consistently underperforming, without any clear spoiler effect for either candidate, I feel comfortable calling this one for Mark Sanford. A remarkable comeback if the results stand firm, and a personal disappointment for me.

[Talleyrand]

Wasserman said he isn't seeing a path to victory for her either.

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