Australia General Discussion

[Talleyrand]

Alexander Downer has just been unanimously elected as head of the South Australian Liberal Party.

How much of a difference does this make in how or whether the Liberals will take over the South Australian parliament next March? 

Most voters won't know or care who the Head of their state Liberal Party is, so it won't make any difference.

[Talleyrand]

Tasmanian ALP MHA calls for Premier Lara Giddings to be replaced by Economic Development Minister David O'Byrne before next year's election. The Premier, O'Byrne, and the ALP's coalition partners, the Greens, have dismissed these concerns in public.

[Talleyrand]

I don't know the dynamics of the five Tasmanian electorates well at all, but would it be correct to say that the anti-Green sentiment is far higher in the three northern divisions (Bass, Braddon, and Lyons) than Franklin or Denison? If so, what might be the reason for that?

[Talleyrand]

Does anyone known when he will have two party counts for the eleven "non-traditional" electorates available to the general public?

[Talleyrand]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/row-puts-kevins-seat-up-for-grabs/story-fn59niix-1226782853184#

The article is paywalled, but the result of the Labor preselection vote for Kevin Rudd's seat of Queensland is expected to be announced within the next day. The big news is that the Labor Unity's members in the division have virtually all abandoned the right-wing candidate Jeremy de Lore against the wishes of higher-ups in their faction. This might give the left-affiliated candidate, Terri Butler, a slight edge, although we'll know soon enough.

[Talleyrand]

Abbott is expected to appoint General Peter Cosgrove to replace the outgoing Governor-General Quentin Bryce.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/general-peter-cosgrove-to-replace-quentin-bryce-as-governorgeneral-report-20131226-2zx2d.html

[Talleyrand]

Western Australia State Newspoll


2PP

Liberal/National- 51% (-6)
Labor- 49% (+6)

Colin Barnett Ratings

Approve- 34% (-17)
Disapprove- 54% (+18)

Mark McGowan Ratings

Approve- 51% (+2)
Disapprove- 22% (-7)

Preferred Premier

Colin Barnett- 37% (-15)
Mark McGowan- 43% (+12)


This election is more than three years away, so we shouldn't read too much into those numbers, but the federal section is telling, and should worry the Liberals as the Western Australia half-Senate election approaches.

Western Australia Federal Newspoll

Primary Vote

Liberal- 41% (-10)
Labor- 36% (+7)

2PP

Liberal- 50% (-8)
Labor- 50% (+8)

What has Barnett done to become so unpopular?

[Talleyrand]

Any predictions for the Redcliffe byelection?

I'm going with an LNP win with 51% of the 2PP.

[Talleyrand]

ReachTel has Labor on 54% of the TPP, with a 40% primary vote to 39% for the Coalition (the lowest its been in several years, I presume?).

[Talleyrand]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/18/nielsen-56-44-to-labor/

lol

[Talleyrand]

Essential Research has 3 new state polls out.

Labor is up 53-37 in Victoria, while the Coalition leads 53-47 in Queensland and New South Wales (this is the first poll under Baird in the latter). The first is an election-winning lead for Labor, while the latter two would represent swings of around 10% against first-term governments.

Of course a lot could change over the next year, but the ALP might have some reasons for joy soon.

[Talleyrand]

Could there be an early election in Victoria, or do the fixed terms prevent that?

[Talleyrand]

Latest Newspoll, probably a fluke, has Labor ahead 51-49 in Queensland.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/06/29/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-in-queensland-2/

[Talleyrand]

So it looks like Labor are favourites to gain Fisher.

OUCH.

Amazing!!!!!!!!!

In addition, another ReachTel poll shows Campbell Newman down 45-55 in Ashgrove. Time to finally announce he's switching seats?

[Talleyrand]

Labor's path in the Victorian Legislative Council just got rockier; they've been defeated on the very first vote, to elect the Speaker. By a vote of 21-17, Liberal MLC Bruce Atkinson has been re-elected as the chamber's President.

The crossbench vote on that one is odd...

The 5 Green MPs and Sex Party MP voted for the Coalition candidate, but Labor got votes from the 2 Shooters and Fishers MP, Vote 1 Jobs MP, and Family First MP.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll Quarterly is out.

NSW- Labor 54% (+2)
Victoria- Labor 60% (+2)
Queensland- Labor 52% (+1)
South Australia- Labor 54% (+3)
Western Australia- Labor 47% (+1)

http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/12/26/1227167/481924-aus-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

I assume Tasmania would also record a sizable swing to Labor in a poll (maybe around 55% TPP)?

[Talleyrand]

Western Australia Newspoll is out.

TPP
Labor- 50% (no change)
Coalition- 50% (no change)

Primary
Coalition- 42% (+1)
Labor- 33% (+2)
Greens- 15% (no change)
Otherd- 10% (-3)

Colin Barnett Favorability
Approval- 37% (+5)
Disapproval- 49% (-7)

Mark McGowan Favorability
Approval- 48% (+1)
Disapproval- 27% (-2)

Preferred Premier
McGowan- 40% (-1)
Barnett- 39% (+1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/02/newspoll-50-50-in-western-australia-3/

[Talleyrand]

As is South Australia.

TPP
Labor- 53% (+2)
Coalition- 47% (-2)

Primary
Labor- 35% (+1)
Coalition- 33% (-3)
Greens- 10% (+1)
Others- 22% (+1)

Jay Weatherill Favorability
Approval- 46% (+1)
Disapproval- 42% (+5)

Steven Marshall Favorability
Approval- 35% (-5)
Disapproval- 42% (+8)

Preferred Premier
McGowan- 47% (+2)
Marshall- 29% (-1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/12/31/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-in-south-australia/

[Talleyrand]

Surprising that WA's vote is holding up well for the Liberals, particularly given the approval/PP ratings.

Maybe they're more reluctant to vote Labor than the other states? The election is still over two years away, so maybe the voting intentions will catch up some to the approval by then (although it might be conceivable that Barnett will retire and be replaced with a more popular leader by then).

[Talleyrand]

My prediction- After a stalking horse challenge from Mal Brough, Tony will resign. Then Bishop will be elected party leader unanimously with Turnbull as deputy. Swift, painless transition in time for the NSW poll in March.

[Talleyrand]

What time will it be?

[Talleyrand]

What time will it be?

It's about to start.

Watching it now. He sounds like Campbell Newman. How many times has he said the word "strong" in its various forms?

[Talleyrand]

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.

[Talleyrand]

Just tuned in, did Abbott really not talk about Queensland at all? Lol.

0 mentions, literally.

He did mention "minor administrative changes" on the state level.

He wasn't talking about the 'administration' as in Government, he was talking about the administration of the GST.

And, this was a horrid speech... and the media is letting him off the hook.

Ah, missed it.

He did ask what sort of madness possesses people to vote for ALP governments. Insulting the electorate isn't really the way to go right now.

[Talleyrand]

The message of this speech is "I'm not going, you want me gone... blast me out of office".

How long does everyone think he has?

I'd guess he has a month to turn it around at most; I just can't envision him hanging on from this.