Australia General Discussion

[Talleyrand]

Can't see the tables (subscribers only) but one would think the out of line QLD result can be attributed to the recent scandals rocking the government, however if I'm correct these polls were conducted over a period of 2-3 months.

The SA result is also surprising seeing how low Abbott's approval is.

Agreed on the second count, but it should be noted that there is also a 13 year old aging state government in the state. People may not be itching to throw out the federal Libs as much as if there was a state ALP government. Not sure though.

I think the bigger factor in Queensland is not the Billy Gordon scandal (I doubt this has had any major impact at all), but the removal of the extremely unpopular Newman government that was damaging its federal counterpart in polling. That said, it's a shift from 52-48 ALP to 50-50.

[Talleyrand]

The first state poll has dropped, and it's from WA.


TPP
Labor- 52% (+2)
Coalition- 48% (-2)

Primary
Coalition- 40% (-2)
Labor- 35% (+2)
Greens- 14% (-1)
Otherd- 11% (+1)

Colin Barnett Favorability
Approval- 38% (+1)
Disapproval- 53% (+4)

Mark McGowan Favorability
Approval- 53% (+5)
Disapproval- 28% (+1)

Preferred Premier
McGowan- 44% (+4)
Barnett- 38% (-1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/06/newspoll-52-48-to-labor-in-western-australia/

[Talleyrand]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26973940/abbott-support-sinks-in-wa-poll/

ReachTel matches the federal Newspoll federally in WA (54-46 to ALP), and has the ALP leading 54.7-45.3 in Swan, a reversal from their 43.5-56.5 loss in 2013. It should be noted however that WA is undergoing a MAJOR redistribution this year, so electorate polls there will be totally useless until then.

[Talleyrand]

That ReachTel for Swan apparently was conducted on behalf of the United Voice Union, and it also has the ALP ahead 57-43 in Eden-Monaro, the famous NSW "bellwether". It also has Labor up in Hindmarsh (SA) and Bonner (QLD), although we don't have specific numbers yet.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voter-angst-on-tax-avoidance-and-penalty-rates-20150407-1mfbfa.html

[Talleyrand]

Definitely. All pretty low hanging fruit.


Also, lmao.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/qld-dirt-digger-in-epic-email-fail/story-fnki1jcy-1227298150266

[Talleyrand]

Galaxy has it 50-50 in Queensland, based on preferences from both the 2012 and 2015 elections. 62% of Queenslanders think Billy Gordon should resign, and Annastacia Palaszczuk hasa 53% approval rating compared to 24% disapproval rating.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/11/galaxy-50-50-in-queensland-2/

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is bad for Labor.

Ipsos has it 54-46, and Newspoll at 51-49.

Worst thing for Labor is the huge decline in Shorten's numbers. He's at 33-51, while Abbott is at 33-59. They're basically deadlocked for preferred premier.

[Talleyrand]

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.

[Talleyrand]

The only thing we can draw out of this is that it's unlikely Abbott will be rolled as long as the numbers continue to fluctuate like this and he gets a few 49-51's etc.

I'm not advocating for Shorten to be rolled yet, but if those numbers are true, it's quite clear that Rudd's reforms sort of missed the point. The reforms within the ALP should have been directed at the pre-selection level, reducing the influence of the factions and unions, while allowing the general membership to decide candidates on their own. I feel more comfortable with the membership deciding the parliamentary party, and the parliamentary party deciding the leadership.

Given that Shorten's win was largely down to the parliamentary party.....that's a bit odd to say that Rudd's reforms missed the point. Or am I missing something?

That was an unfortunate incident, yes, but I think we would see less results like that if more Labor MPs won preselection in pure branch ballots rather than simply getting on the virtue of factional deals and union hackery. The other big thing is that you need a 60% threshold to create a spill within caucus, and 75% if they're in government; I definitely don't think that should exist. It makes it harder to get rid of underperforming leaders.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-19/nt-labor-leader-delia-lawrie-resigns-gunner-takes-over/6403864

Delia Lawrie has resigned. Michael Gunner (MP for Fannie Bay, Clare Martin's old seat) is NT Opposition Leader.


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-south-australia/

Labor is ahead 54-46 in South Australia in the latest state poll.

[Talleyrand]

Hoping it's Ludlam or SHY, but no indication they're running yet.

[Talleyrand]

Labor can attempt to rebuild with a new leader after 2016. Hopefully it's Albanese or at the very least someone not as horrible as Shorten.

Speaking of that, can't we get a federal election thread up now? There was already one before this point in the last parliament.

[Talleyrand]

A great loss to be sure.

On a lighter note, take a look at this!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3107057/Pictured-Julia-Gillard-ve-never-seen-rocking-black-leather-skirt-fishnet-stockings-stage-fundraiser-12-years-prime-minister.html

[Talleyrand]

Morris Iemma is apparently going to jump into federal politics. If only it were a different ex-Labor Premier...

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/morris-iemma-sets-sights-on-federal-parliament-with-run-for-barton-seat-20150601-ghe8i8.html

[Talleyrand]

Guys, it's time to roll Shorten.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/06/15/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-6/

His approval is 28% and his disapproval is 54%. o_o

[Talleyrand]

In other news, that was also the last Newspoll ever.

From now on, Galaxy will be doing the polls.

[Talleyrand]

The Killing Season is actually brilliant, hard to watch but so good.

So compelling ... Rudd looks like the smug **** he is.

The series actually rehabilitated his reputation somewhat I think. Although Gillard continues to come off as a far better individual than Rudd, it's quite clear he was the wronged party (by FAR) in the 2010 coup.

[Talleyrand]

Is there any chance that Abbott will face another leadership challenge/motion due to his horrible polls? 

His polls aren't particularly horrible anymore. Trailing 48-52 midterm with an equally unpopular Opposition Leader isn't a position from which the party will try to get rid of him. Considering he survived in a much more disastrous position back in February, he's secure.

Started a federal election thread in the IE board because of the speculation over an early election-

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215139.0

[Talleyrand]

Queensland federal LNP member for Dawson George Christensen is speaking at a rally for hate group Reclaim Australia.



In the ongoing Bronwyn Bishop saga, Joe Hockey has refused to defend the Speaker after she wasted $5000 on a helicopter to save a few minutes driving to a Liberal Party event.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/07/15/12/40/labor-questions-speaker-s-travel-claim

[Talleyrand]

Queensland federal LNP member for Dawson George Christensen is speaking at a rally for hate group Reclaim Australia.

Weird how Danish-Australians seem to produce so many right wing nutters, while Danish-Americans seem to be fairly moderate.

Also, the Wiki page claims he is Greek Orthodox.. Whats up with that?

The only other example I can think of of the top of my head is former Queensland Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen, obviously. Notably both are members of the (increasingly marginalized and useless) National Party.

The rest of Christensen's wiki page isn't flattering.

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[Talleyrand]

Ha! Bronnie is doubling down. She's going nowhere and criticised the Treasurer.

Oh yes

Awesome! I hope she stays the whole parliament.

[Talleyrand]

Western Australian Liberal MP Don Randall has died, suspected heart attack.

He was one of the MPs who moved the spill motion against Abbott in February.

RIP. He was only 62. Too young to die.

On to the topic of a potential byelection... Canning is a mostly Liberal-friendly seat with some areas of Labor strength in Mandurah and Armadale. Right now it's on a 12% margin, but was only on a 2% margin in 2010 due the popularity of ALP candidate Alannah Mactiernan (now MP for Perth), so it's not out of reach for Labor. However, they'd need a literal perfect storm to win it, and the federal ALP isn't doing well enough for that. Not to mention that their best candidate won't be able to run. I'd guess a small (5-6%) swing away from the Libs in a byelection, but not enough to threaten them.

As for ChopperGate, I think it makes Abbott less likely to call an early election, simply because it has reduced the momentum he was getting from Shorten's "woes" in recent weeks.


Meanwhile, in the NT, CLP Speaker Kezia Purick has quit the party. This means the government only has 12/25 seats in parliament and has lost its majority.

[Talleyrand]

The draft boundaries for the Western Australia Legislative Assembly are out. There are lots of significant movement, especially in the Perth area. The Liberal seat of Eyre in the rural southeast of the state has been abolished and a new notional Labor seat called Baldivis has been created in southern Perth. The marginally Labor seat of Collie-Preston has now become a notionally Liberal seat called Collie-Capel. Plenty of other changes too.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/wa-redistribution-2015/

[Talleyrand]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/australian-court-revokes-approval-for-adani-groups-12-2-billion-coal-mine-1438741179

thank you based ornamental snake + yakka skink!

let's hope these noble lizards kill off this silly project once and for all.

Glorious news!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-06/tony-burke-asks-finance-department-to-review-his-entitlements/6676672

In other news, Manager of Opposition Business Tony Burke is under scrutiny for a $12000 taxpayer funded trip to Uluru in 2012 when he was Environment Minister.

[Talleyrand]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

Disgusting. Hope he's sacked.

...Most (or at least a strong minority) of high-profile Liberals are republicans, including Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull. This was the case in the Howard years too, with individuals like Peter Costello being self-professed Republicans.

Unfortunately it seems like it'll be a very long time before a republic comes into being.