US House Redistricting: New York

[NY Jew]

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

[NY Jew]

Try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. I'm skeptical that you can get it over 50%, especially if we're using VAP, but I'd definitely like to see.

When I tried to eyeball a compact South Brooklyn CD earlier, I was using DRA so it wasn't clear how much of 'white' was Jewish, and also I ended up having to include more Democratic parts of Brooklyn in Grimm's district such that it actually shifts several points Democratic, so it seems likely to me that were you to successfully create the district that you're talking about we'd still end up with only the one Republican CD in the city most years (possibly zero if some hawkish, religiously conservative Jewish Democrat got elected from the hypothetical district that we are discussing).

I don't know how to upload maps on this website.
the key is to move Grimm out of Brooklyn and towards the Rockways
Grimm would be +2
and the New Jewish district would be +9

and in regards to weather or not the there was a Democrat or a Republican though I would prefer a Republican I would vote for someone like Noach Dear, or Dov Hikind way before I would vote for most NY state Republicans.

If you are looking for the Orthodox precincts in DRA, use the option to color by election. They will show up as strongly McCain compared to everything else. Though I was motivated by geography and the black-majority districts, I suspect it would look similar to CD 8 in my map above (reposted here).

No I move it Southeast and take in all of Coney Island (from Manhattan Beach to Sea Gate) and Mill Basin (both have very big Jewish communities)

[NY Jew]

The thing is, I'm not sure how you can keep NY-13 R+[non-zero] if you do that. The district that I'm making right now is partway between muon's and what you seem to be describing. I had to use Mill Basin and Coney Island to keep NY-13 Republican. I'll keep trying, though; I might just run NY-13 further up through Queens to see if I can make it go to Parkside or thereabouts. How wedded are you to Bay Ridge?

once I get to the Rockways I follow the Turner district and take in Howard Beach.
I also include Dyker Heights, Bayridge and Bath Beach (which have almost no jews) in Grimm
this map is closer to what I had in mind for the Jewish district

[NY Jew]

I have NY-13, which is about tied or R+1, take in only Bay Ridge in Brooklyn, and the Rockaways, Howard Beach, and some of Ozone Park in Queens. Dyker Heights and Bath Beach are in the Jewish district, which is hence probably a little less Jewish than yours, but it means that I was able to get it all the way up to what I'm pretty sure is R+11. I might switch some of Dyker Heights and Bath Beach into the Grimm district and put whatever that Asian area just north-east of Bay Ridge is in with the Jews.

Maybe not the district I did was so rushed (thanks to the Dave's destruction)
that I put Bensonhurst along crosby ave (there are 2 Orthodox Nursing homes there so that can have a major effect) in Grimm's district that make's my map less Jewish then it should be, though I probably have more Jews then you in Kensingston and Borough Park. 

[NY Jew]

NY Jew, would you happen to know anything about southern Williamsburg? Is that heavily Orthodox also? I ask because it's an incongruous patch of McCain territory in North Brooklyn on the maps I'm looking at

yes the Orthodox population is around 80-90% Satmar.

also the patch of light red in Crown Heights is also Orthodox 99% Chabad.

[NY Jew]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

[NY Jew]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

[NY Jew]

Tomorrow after church I think I'll draw and post the ultimate map to piss off NY Jew: Keep all of Borough Park together but put it into a black majority seat.

unless your a judge in the case, a member of the legislature or somehow able to convince the court to open it up to the public again why should I care about your antisemitic map?

Please don't throw that word around so lightly. Thank you.

It's not lightly anyone who would purposely destroy the Jewish vote like he wants to is a vile anti semite, and I will call him out on it.

Why are you so sure it is animated by Jew hatred as opposed to securing partisan advantage? How can you be so confident about the motives of people?  Sure one can hypothesize until the cows come home, but to make a flat out assertion is not something that well, a lawyer would do, because the facts just don't support making a clear and convincing case that the motive is in fact based on ethnic animus rather than what is typically the case, which is about getting as many of your team elected as possible.

this answer your question

Mind you by the way I don't have a problem carving up Borough Park either since it's basically the most fascist place in America. A place that votes similar to Iraqi "elections" under Saddam Hussein that is mostly populated by zealots who salivate over murdered Palestinian children and want to massacre Iranians? Terrible terrible place. And that's not even getting started on their views on women...

everything this guy has ever said on this forum regarding Jews screams he's an anti semite.

[NY Jew]

OK here is a combination of hasids, hipsters, Hispanics and some Asians. Though the Hispanics probably won't like it since it probably won't elect a Hispanic once Velázquez retires, (26.4% Hispanic VAP now) but it's 66% Obama and obviously still safe D. I even got the hasids in Williamsburg who whine about female cyclists in:

you do realize this seat could easily elect someone like Ruben Diaz.

[NY Jew]

He is from the Bronx, so no.

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

[NY Jew]

He is from the Bronx, so no.

like in this context meant "similar to", not "as an example of"

Is there any such notable person in the district? I have a tough time seeing them get the hipsters' vote.

they wouldn't need the hipster vote.

[NY Jew]

once again we get an anti Semitic map that Destroys NYC's Jewish voice.

[NY Jew]

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

State and Regional maps
District maps
Demographics

Surprisingly non-horrible.  The only things I find particularly objectionable are a) Velasquez's district continuing to snake down to Sunset Park rather than Jackson Heights (also W'burg and Greenpoint really ought to be together), but I knew that was going to happen, and b) drowning Ithaca in the Southern Tier district.  I do wish NY-5 could just stay within Queens, but I recognize that may not actually be allowed- at least they united the Rockaways.

Please defend Yevvete Clarke and Nadler getting the Orthodox Jewish Community and Towns getting the Russian Jewish Community.

[NY Jew]

The special master has posted a proposed plan. Comments due by Wednesday.

State and Regional maps
District maps
Demographics

how do we make comments?

[NY Jew]

I note he went with exactly what I at first thought inevitable in Brooklyn, before I noticed how unhispanic Velazquez' district was and that it was trending White and how ugly a map it forced to preserve it (the Nadler Hipster Earmuff as well as the Jewish Slashup).

You got it backwards the Jewish slashup is why Velazquez's district goes in to southern Brooklyn.

[NY Jew]

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.

except the district was slashed up 20 years ago to destroy the jewish vote.  Velazquez wasn't elected till the election after that.
  The reason that happened was because the jewish community voted against Solarz (he won the overall election) and all of a sudden in the next redistricting the seat was gone.

look at this map and you'll see what it used to look like
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_03_02_11_11_09_04.png

[NY Jew]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.

[NY Jew]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.

Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?

around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

[NY Jew]

Oh god, no. Velazquez lives there, kiddo. Not everything revolves around you.

Mind you, I agree with you that it should have been undone. Preserving it is more trouble than it's worth by far.

some more info on how the jewish community was gerrymandered because of that seat.

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/09/nyregion/solarz-will-run-in-district-tailored-as-a-hispanic-seat.html

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[NY Jew]

Could be a done deal. If the Republicans in the State Senate are self-interested as stated, they have every reason to pass the court map altered to created the "super Jewish" seat in South Brooklyn. The changes wouldn't go through the State House, but, it would put both parties on record going into the special election.

What special election?

Fidler vs Storobin (The biggest issue in this race is also marriage redefinition (well only on the anti marriage redef side))
around 60 rabbis have forbade voting for Fidler because he voted for a marriage redefinition like bill.

Oh, tell me more. What is the partisan makeup of the district?  How is it being handicapped?  When is the election?

around 1/3 is Orthodox and 1/4 Russian Jewish and the rest of the white are heavy catholic.

not sure what you mean by handicapped?
March 20th (this was decided before the court decision)

It means what do the odds makers think as to the likelihood of one guy or the other winning. If you handicap a race, that means you are placing odds on it, just like betting on the horses at the race track.

It sounds like a pretty Pub friendly district. Why was a Dem representing it?

the Republicans haven't put up a candidate in at least 8 years.  In the last election a 19 year old Orthodox kid got 27% on less then 1000$ running only on the Conservative line.

At first all the political pundits thought Fidler (the democrat) was a shoein but after Orthodox Jews turned marriage redefinition into a issue Fidler has tried to use everysingle dirty trick in the book to win this seat (trying to link a Storobin (a Russian Jew) to Neo Nazi's and now trying to link him to defending pedophiles)
Though there are 60 or so rabbis from all different backgrounds who signed different letters forbidding voting for Fidler.

[NY Jew]

Here's the only question worth asking, folks - do the State Senate Republicans get a Senate map where they still have a good opportunity at holding the majority.  If so, then these will be the maps, for 2012 at least.

Does the same special master draw the State Lege now or will that be separate?

As of right now, the special master isn't drawing the State Legislature maps.  They are going through a second draft at the legislative level.  Governor Cuomo has threatened to veto them unless done in a nonpartisan manner, which these maps clearly are not.  But he might let them pass if he gets a constitutional amendment to make redistricting non-partisan in the future as part of the bargain. 

The gerrymandering in the state plans is superb.  If gerrymandering were an art, the State Senate plan would be a classic.  It continues the overrepresentation of Upstate and breaks up areas in Westchester and Long Island in order to keep or make Republican seats.  The Assembly map is not as blatant, but still a good job of gerrymandering.

The first draft of the state maps are here:
http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/maps/

actually the Senate map stunk for example if they wanted to they could easily win a third seat in Brooklyn. but they put some of the most Conservative parts of Brooklyn in either Savino or Sampson.  they could have had a chance for a seat in Northern Queens if they would have attached it to the Bronx (they also put some of the more conservitive parts of Forest Hills in a democrat district). and they could have picked up a seat if they wanted to in Rockland County.
The map just looks like a good job of gerrymandering because they made weird lines just for the sake of making weird lines (a few of which were counter productive).

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

[NY Jew]

any one have a non antisemitic reason why the Jewish Community in Far Rockway is not united with the community in the 5 Towns (in district 4).  But Inwood is put in to district 5.

Inwood was put in NY-05 for VRA reasons, being cautious. Jews are not part of the VRA game. Jews are white. 

wouldn't it be easier to have a majority black district if they didn't include 90% Jewish areas in the district?
toss the super majority Jewish part of Far Rockway into district 4 would do a lot more for the black majority

No, you can't get to 50% black VAP for NY-05 without it sneaking into Nassau County. I tried.

MY point was they go into Nassau twice it is very easy to make a 50% black district without Inwood. crosing county borders at 2 points is unjustified if there purpose is only for a black district.  If they wanted to do it for uniting districts of similarity you see why I'm right (if they cross NYC borders in 5 different places) then there is no justification not to cross there.

The alternative to Inwood is to cross into Brooklyn as I did on my map. Even then I split the Rockaways to get the needed 50%.

you need to go into Nassau around Elmont (but that district crosses the border into different areas one of which is completely unnecessary to get a black majority district) in which case my original question is still true.
Isn't the whole official purpose of this map to unite communities of interest.

If Inwood is united with Queens there's zero excuse for not uniting Far Rockway with the 5 Towns.