NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.

thank you

[NY Jew]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

if you get rid of partisan redistricting and combine the Orthodox areas of Brooklyn and don't make any strange shapes moving the district in to northern Brooklyn but combine the orthodox jewish areas with the overwhelmingly Jewish Russian areas and catholic areas in Brooklyn, Rockways and Howard Beach this district rivals almost any other Conservative district in the country (though it might still go to a democrat like Hikind)

[NY Jew]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.

figures a person who thinks anyone who is against this sacrilege is a bigot would also automatically jump to this conclusion.

If you want the reason here it is

here's a quote from Jewish tradition (which I follow and believe so if you want to understand where I;) God did not decree (happened way before the flood but ) the flood until man started writing marriage documents to other men.

notice there just was a hurricane in NY and my community had 3 deaths out of (I think) 4 deaths in the state.

Now assuming Jewish tradition is a given, logically how can I come to any other conclusion but to fight it strongly.

(What I wrote above is less then the cliff notes version of my position but it should suffice)

[NY Jew]

This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

he's a son of a Auschwitz survivor.

[NY Jew]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

He is gay.

figures a person who thinks anyone who is against this sacrilege is a bigot would also automatically jump to this conclusion.

If you want the reason here it is

here's a quote from Jewish tradition (which I follow and believe so if you want to understand where I;) God did not decree (happened way before the flood but ) the flood until man started writing marriage documents to other men.

notice there just was a hurricane in NY and my community had 3 deaths out of (I think) 4 deaths in the state.

Now assuming Jewish tradition is a given, logically how can I come to any other conclusion but to fight it strongly.

(What I wrote above is less then the cliff notes version of my position but it should suffice)

are you trolling us?

no but someone who accuses me of something that according to Judaism deserves the death penalty is trolling.

What I'm doing is defending myself for his foolish accusation.  (I didn't bring up my theology only as a defense to why I'm strong on a specific point which happens to be one of the biggest issues in the race this thread is about)

If I'm trolling so is both the person I'm responding to and the one he's responding to.

[NY Jew]

no but someone who accuses me of something that according to Judaism deserves the death penalty is trolling.

What I'm doing is defending myself for his foolish accusation.  (I didn't bring up my theology only as a defense to why I'm strong on a specific point which happens to be one of the biggest issues in the race this thread is about)

If I'm trolling so is both the person I'm responding to and the one he's responding to.

Fine, but why (on a social, not personal, level) do you care?

Related question: Did the Book of Ruth get deleted from the version of the Tanakh used by reactionary maniacs when I wasn't paying attention?

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

what does Rus have to do with anything?

[NY Jew]

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

If your religion forbids it according to your religion it's sinfull it's sinful end of story.

[NY Jew]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.
[/quote]
site me a pasuk or be quit, you am haraetz rasha.

PS if you dont' understand that your interpretation of anything in the bible says is worthless anyway.

[NY Jew]

one that is ten times more Conservative then this one right now the reason the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

 that's due to orthodox Jewish populations strong social Conservative positions and strong Israel support has been in many elections voting Republican ever since at least the 80's (right now there are EDs that can flip 90% either way depending on numerous factors) (Borough Park had a Contiguous area with 50,00 people that voted for McCain at over a 90% rate (though they decided to put this area in to Nadler's seat to dilute the Jewish vote))

Uh, Nadler's CD is easily among the top 10 CD's in % Jewish in the nation.

As for redistricting, Dems should not agree to eliminate NY-9 (if Turner wins) and a Democratic seat upstate. NY-9 under current boundaries is a Lean Dem CD at least, so Dems would be losing both CD's. Upstate can easily shore up Hochul and/or carve up one of the GOP CD's especially with Slaughter's CD overpacked (not for GOP gerry, but for Quinn's incumbency, but the point is the same).

explain to me why the most Contiguous orthodox Jewish area in the world outside of Isreal (that is a little more then half the size of a CD) is divided in to 6 Congressional districts.

If this was a black area everyone would have screamed racism years ago.

[NY Jew]

That's easily one of my favorite StarTrib editorial cartoons ever by the way, which is why I still remember it easily 8 years after publication.

after seeing your so called proof
all I can think to say is what her decedent said
hevel havaliem amar koheles hevel havaliem hakol havel.
once again if you don't know what that means then your so called biblical scholarship is worse then any 8 year old yeshiva student.

[NY Jew]

So would it be a sin for a Mormon or Muslim to vote to do something like loosen restrictions on alcohol sales?

ask a mormon or muslim weather or not a non mormon or muslim can't drink to get your answer.
now if a persons religion forbids them to do anything to help,recognize, or participate in a so called wedding then that would be sinful.
(and you say I'm dumb)

[NY Jew]

back to the point the fact that jews are upset with this vote weather or not we're all bigots will make Turner the winner of this election.
Ruben Diaz's endorsement will also help

PS: I didn't see the warning when started typing my previous comment.

[NY Jew]

NY Jew was probably right about the effect.  This one is not a microcosm.

Q12 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 41%
Illegal .............................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%


Importance of Same-Sex Marriage on Vote (Orthodox Jews are always unrepresented in these polls)
Jewish Very 32%
Catholic Very 29%

unfortunately this poll doesn't ask enough questions (like dividing Jews up)

[NY Jew]

Has Turner even run as a moderate, or at least less right-wing than the overall GOP? It would be even more disappointing to lose this if he hasn't.

we'll you'll be happy to know he ran a lot more moderate (so much so that if he didn't have a lot of outside help (and I don't mean normal campaign staffers) he would have lost drastically) a campaign than last time.

[NY Jew]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.

Turner's Jewish vote in the last poll was 6 points above his popularity.  (anyone who doesn't think that 40 rabbis (including some of the biggest (most respected in Orthodox circles) rabbis in America today) forbidding voting for Weprin is a major factor in this race is way to clueless to understand why this election will be lost)

[NY Jew]

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.

the answer is Orthodox Jews who have changed their voting habits more towards the GOP thanks to the postions of the current democratic party plus many areas in this district have a lot more orthodox jews then they had 10 years ago ex. Marine Park, Kew Garden Hills ext.

[NY Jew]

dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.

[NY Jew]

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.

they can't change it to dramatically in Brooklyn other wise this district would get in to trouble with the voting rights act or become even more Conservative.

[NY Jew]

Why not just run Manny Celler? If he won his physical remains would still be more intelligent than a majority of the current New York delegation.

I maintain that this was a fundamentally good idea.

seriously if he was still alive he would probably destroy both Weprin or Turner (and get the Orthodox vote (he was anti the ERA (would have been anti gay marriage and the like), pro immigration, willing to take on democratic leadership ext.))

but the democrats wouldn't pick a candidate like that today.

as a side note while on the subject if the democratic leadership wouldn't have turned down Noach Dear who was recommended by Orthodox leaders to the democratic establishment then the democrats would still have this seat after tomorrow night, and save a lot of money.

[NY Jew]

just in the Daily News
Rabbi Zechariah Wallerstein, founder of the Ohr Naava women's Torah center in Brooklyn, recorded an anti-Weprin robocall paid for by the National Organization for Marriage, which opposes same-sex nuptials. VIN reports that Wallerstein says he doesn't know anything about Turner, but agreed to do the call based on his belief that Weprin's past support of SSM makes him a unfit candidate for Orthodox Jews.

One of my readers reported getting a call recorded by state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., another vocal opponent of New York SSM.

more proof that this will be won based on Weprin redefining marriage

[NY Jew]

Perhaps Rory Lancman would've been the better candidate in this situation.

how would he be better then Weprin?
if you needed to pick an Assembly candidate who would win easily (though Hikind would be the best then I'm assuming you wouldn't go for that)

Michael G. Miller would have been a candidate that would do very well here

[NY Jew]

Are there enough Orthodox Jews to form a full Congressional district if you strung them together?

no (depending on what you how you want to do it) but it also would be imposable to make a complete non Orthodox-Jewish district in NY

[NY Jew]

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

I think - if the polls and all the rumours and everything - are right*, then it'd likely be a combination of the two. These things are often about momentum; in order for the national issues to hit and to hurt, sometimes a horrific choice of candidate for the government party is needed to drop the ball in a ghastly trainwreck of unacceptably mixed metaphors. If you see my point.

Of course if Weprin loses by double digits, I take that all back. Because sometimes it isn't necessary and sometimes even good government candidates lose by-elections in safe seats. And if Weprin is beaten heavily, I think that'd be evidence that even a decent candidate would have lost. Narrowly.

*My experience is that polls and people on the ground sometimes read these things very badly, so we shouldn't be too shocked if they turn out to be wrong. Even if that is hardly likely.

Turner is also a lousy candidate too (his biggest gaffes had not even been reported on (the democrats and Republicans don't realize why there gaffes and his supporters are covering them up because they don't want Weprin)).
this race is a combination of many flaws (in the minds of rank and file democrats) in different parts of the democratic platform most notably marriage redefinition.

[NY Jew]

Hey, is there a heavy Orthodox Jew community in this district? Also, has Gay Marriage resonated as an issue in this Special?

there is are 3 Orthodox communities (Belle Harbor, Bayswater, and most importantly Far Rockway) in this district  (in addition part of this district overlaps with the 9th (though most of the Orthodox areas are out of the 9th))
yes Jane Deacy has accused Phillip Goldfeder an Orthodox Jew (who is against gay marriage but not vocal about it) of not championing to get rid of it in a hope to connect him with Weprin.

There also is another special election for an assembly race in the 9th Congressional district where the democrat is also an Orthodox Jew (who seems to be against gay marriage but since there is no real race it's hard to tell 100%) and the Republican is a place holder because the Republicans are to stupid and corrupt (there is a lot of infighting in the Queens Republican party and in order to get support in the chairmanship race they put up a person who has no chance of winning) to put up a real candidate. (though the good thing about this race is that when both Republicans and Orthodox jews in this very Orthodox district go to the polls they are most likely going to vote for Turner)

[NY Jew]

Noach Dear? Oh lord.

you might hate him but he would have won instead you get REPUBLICAN Bob Turner, and a slap in the face to your president, your parties platforms and the most public campaign of someone losing because they voted for pro gay marriage.

But think on the bright side at least you didn't get Noach Dear.