British General Election Constituency Predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, yeah. Eventually I got round to doing this. I will do predictions for all Labour-held constituencies with majorities of under 20%, all LibDem constituencies with majorities of under 10% and all Conservative constituencies with majorities of under 5%. Rallings & Thrasher notionals will be used and there will be occasional exceptions (more linked to media interest than 'owt else). A piss-poor justification can be found on the main thread.

I'm not sure how many 'editions' of this I'll manage before the election (I do have other things to do, you see), but I'll get at least one out. Feel free to criticise my pathetic guesswork. That is what this board is for.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.

Probably safer than the majority indicates. Anderson polled over 50% in 2005 and the Tory vote shrunk to what must be its absolute core (only 8%). This is quite a polarised constituency (an uneasy combination of industrial towns and villages and posh Newcastle suburbs) and it isn't clear where any extra LibDem votes might come from. The LibDems have also had some candidate problems. It seems likely that the seat will only be lost if things go dreadfully for Labour.

City of Durham - Labour 7.4% over LibDem.

The situation here is quite confused; the swing needed for a LibDem gain is small enough for a gain to be possible even without the massive boon for LibDem hopes in university towns given to them by the 2001-2005 Parliament and the seat is widely regarded as being vulnerable. But this is another polarised constituency; the City proper is a well-educated, professional and white-collar island in a vast proletarian sea and there's enough of the latter within the boundary of the constituency to allow Blackman-Woods to poll a decent 47% in 2005. The LibDems have done well here in local elections, but then this was also true of 2001-2005 and they don't seem to have done much better this Parliament. It may also be worth mentioning the theory that Labour will regain quite a bit of ground in areas where large numbers of votes were lost to the Kennedy-led LibDems in 2005; if this happens (fwiw I'm not convinced, at least not as regards the non-Muslim end of things), then Labour's position here is stronger than first impressions indicate. Overall, I think this is mostly a turnout battle; national factors may be important, but it isn't certain quite how they'll impact here.

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Labour majority 18.5% over Conservative

The untimely death of Ashok Kumar has probably changed the situation here greatly; Kumar was widely regarded as one of the best constituency MP's in the history of the Commons and there was never any chance of him being defeated this year. As it is, the notional figures might not be of any use now, though a generic Labour candidate would still have won with reasonable comfort. This is a very diverse constituency including middle class suburbs, large council estates, clapped-out seaside resorts, ancient villages and market towns and the old ironstone mining villages ultimately responsible for the existence of the entire Teeside metropolitan area. A Labour victory is still the most likely outcome here, but that's not entirely certain.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour majority 16.8% over LibDem

Knock-on effects from the changes caused by the decision of the boundary commission to dismantle the absurd Tyne Bridge constituency have made Newcastle North the principle LibDem target in the city. Newcastle North is an entirely suburban constituency and includes drab suburbia, council estates and now all of the posh suburb of Gosforth (the richest area in the North East). Local elections have been impressive for the LibDems here, enough so that they might think a gain is a real possibility; while they've stood still in most of Newcastle since winning control of the council in 2004, they've made great strides in all wards in this area, save one. Meanwhile, the constituency's longserving MP Douglas Henderson is retiring. Against this it must be noted that Labour's notional percentage is still rather high (a tad under 50%) and that local elections have flattered the LibDems in quite a few other cities over the past few decades. This constituency is clearly more vulnerable than indicated by the decent notional majority, but it might not pay to overstate that.

Stockton South - Labour majority 13.4% over Conservative

A key marginal since its creation in 1983, Stockton South is somewhat misnamed and has an unusual electoral history. Only a fairly small part of Stockton-on-Tees is in the constituency (the most middle class part of a working class town - with the exception of the area around the town centre), with the rest being nondescript suburbs once in Yorkshire that look to Middlesbrough as much as to Stockton (the largest are Thornaby-on-Tees, Ingleby Barwick and Egglescliffe). Tory strength here mostly comes from the middle class parts of Stockton, while Labour is strongest in and around the town centre. The suburbs south of the Tees are dominated by independents at a local level, but must have voted Labour in recent General Elections (and for the SDP in the 1980s). This is an important seat for the Conservatives, but won't be an easy gain. A close result would be a return to past form, as in the first decade of its existence it saw three close results in a row, while the old constituency of Thornaby was ever marginal.

Tynemouth - Labour majority 11.6% over Conservative

For decades Tynemouth was an appalling flirt; Labour would come close in election after election but were never able to manage a gain. Though this hasn't been true since 1997, the reason for it is important; this is an incredibly polarised constituency. The Tories dominate the posh seaside resorts of Whitley Bay, Cullercoats and Monkseaton, while the rest (a strange mixture of drab Newcastle suburbs and old industrial towns) votes Labour. Local elections are no guide to form here; the local Tories have overperformed for decades and will continue to do so (if the locals are on the same day this year watch out for some laughable ticket splitting). This will be close, once again, though it may be that Tynemouth flirts in the other direction this year - boundary changes have resulted in a slight shift towards Labour and that might prove decisive. Somewhat obviously, the result here will largely be determined by the fate of the parties nationally.

...not only, but also:

Sunderland Central - Labour majority 25.5% over Conservative.

Any good the boundary commission did in abolishing Tyne Bridge was largely undone by this pointless creation; the problems caused by the growth of Washington appear to have driven them mad, because there's no sane justification for the existence of this constituency (which, despite the name, actually includes one ward that isn't part of Sunderland proper). Despite the fearsome notional majority, this constituency has seen above average interest, largely because what Tory strength there is in Sunderland has been concentrated into this constituency and they have led here in recent local elections. A high swing is likely here, but Labour are very unlikely to lose; in part because there's no evidence that the good Tory results in local elections here are anything other than a local phenonemon (Tory overperformance here goes way back, and Sunderland was, I think, the worst local authority in the North East for the Tories in the European Elections), and in part because this is exactly the sort of socially polarised constituency where General Election turnout levels are a massive boon for Labour. But this will be much closer than any neighbouring constituency - which may not be saying much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

I'll be using the same cutoff point for other parties as for the LibDems. Some seats that have had more attention than is due to them by their majority will get covered after the main section (as I've done in the edited post above!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm wondering whether there should be a vague geographical order to the order in which different regions are done, or whether I should be totally random.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've prepared a load of detailed predictions of all the seats that I think will or could change hands.  Anyone interested?

Of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone think Labour can pick up Blaenau Gwent?

The only way of knowing for sure would be to move to Ebbw Vale (merely visiting would not be nearly enough). Davies has come under heavy criticism from the local press for one or two things and People's Voice did badly in the council elections, but you have to be careful about reading too much into that type of thing. Davies might win pretty comfortably, but he might also be buried under a landslide. But no matter what happens the result will be interesting and the area will be represented by someone who claims to be a Socialist.

Will People's Voice have a candidate in Islwyn (or is it Torfaen - the one where they have a couple of councillors)?

They have a candidate in Torfaen (where their councillors have come under criticism for something I've not looked up - local politics is pretty murky there and... yeah...), but I don't know about Islwyn (though there will be at least one independent candidate in the latter).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour holding on to Somerset NE? Music to my ears.

Boundary changes mean that it would technically be a gain. I remember the Rees-Mogg creature from when he stood in The Wrekin in 2001 and if anyone can blow a prospect as easy as NE Zummerzet...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are at least four possible outcomes on the Island this year. One is much less likely than the others and another is somewhat less likely than the first two. The trouble with the place is that loyalties are as much about personality as party. Its a real shame that we don't get ward breakdowns for parliamentary elections, because Anglesey's would be nothing short of hilarious.

I assume the third is a Tory gain... what's the fourth least likely one?

Actually the Tory gain is the least likely one. The third one is Peter Rogers (who is running again) winning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The London map is just too damn small. I can't be bothered to figure out exactly what you're predicting.

He's predicting the Tories to gain Poplar & Limehouse but not Hammersmith - which is certainly an interesting prediction.

Btw, I've settled on an order (of sorts) for mine. Stuff up soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but we can't entirely rule out him (or the Tory) collapsing completely - that's the problem. But, yes, in practice only two outcomes are likely. The better Rogers does in the rural west Island, the better things will be for Owen, though.

15. STROUD - A slightly newagey place where the Greens are a factor. CON GAIN

Stroud the town is, anyway. Much of the rest is very traditional agricultural territory and there are also the old cloth towns that, unlike Stroud, have retained some of their old character; Stonehouse is a good example.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We can't rule out  the Tory collapsing completely

I disagree.

That's basically asking the posh English pensioner incomers to vote for a Welshman not endorsed by a national party (that isn't Labour). Can't see it.

Rogers managed to reduce the Tory vote to 11% last time round - though I more-or-less agree with you, I think... a repeat is very unlikely and going further... yeah. But there's relatively little you can rule out regarding the Island. I wonder how the local government scandals (which led to the effective temporary end of local government) will affect the result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's near impossible for Labour to be in a coalition that doesn't include the Conservatives.

Given... well...



...that means (if your predictions be true) that its pretty much impossible for Labour to be in a coalition, full stop.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Derby re-map must be one of the most radical anywhere in the country. LibDems do well in new North in local elections, but we must always be very careful about drawing too much out of that - I note that Labour won Liverpool Garston by over 20% in 2005.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

So what makes Derby more radical than York in that case? Or Gwynnedd, for what it's worth? (One thing is the obvious statutory sense behind those remaps. I'd have to take a closer look at what happened at Derby.)

I wrote 'one of' not 'the most'. Though, yeah, both York and Gwynedd were to align with local government boundaries.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone got any thoughts of Richard Taylor's chances in Wyre Forest? I found that one quite had to predict, but I settled on a pretty safe Tory gain.

The Doctor is probably done for. Though Kiddy is a weird place...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Rallings & Thrasher notionals are not so favourable to the LibDems, but the basic picture is the same. Linky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North West

Barrow & Furness - Labour majority 12.5% over Conservative

One of three seats in 'Cumbria' where the work of the boundary commission has resulted in a weaker Labour position, Barrow & Furness is also an open seat; right-wing former cabinet minister John Hutton is retiring after four terms. The boundary changes might weaken Labour, but not greatly and not by enought to change the character of the constituency. Its largest town is Barrow-in-Furness, a shipbuilding town in Lancashire-across-the-Sands dependent on defense manufacturing; especially all things regarding nuclear submarines. Barrow is Labour's strongest part of the constituency but voted Tory in the 1980s because of Labour's then unilateralist stance (it probably didn't help that the otherwise well-regarded Albert Booth, the defeated incumbent in 1983, was a member of CND). The other towns are Ulverston, Dalton-in-Furness and Broughton-in-Furness. Ulverston and Dalton are both more capable of voting for either party, while Broughton (brought into the constituency by boundary changes) is strongly Tory. Labour have done poorly in local elections here (in part due to a splinter party) but that might not mean a great deal; Labour have underperfomed in local elections in this odd corner of the world for over thirty years. Boundary changes and the retirement of Hutton can only be good news for the Tories, but the government's committment to the Trident weapon's system is somewhat unlikely to hurt Labour in Barrow. Although the majority (just within range of the swing suggested by most polls) seems to indicate the importance of national swing here, it's possible - though by no means certain - that other factors will be of more importance.

Blackburn - Labour majority 19.4% over Conservative

Almost falling outside the scope of this little survey, Blackburn is (as you all know) a large Lancashire mill town and has been represented in Parliament since 1979 by Jack Straw. This is unlikely to change; Labour actually led here in the European Elections and have done well in local elections (I think sometimes polling a higher share of the vote than Straw did in the Iraq-tinged 2005 election - the tendency for two-candidate races in local elections here explains some of that; but note that Labour has been winning those two-candidate elections). Blackburn can be roughly, though not entirely accurately, divided into three unequal thirds; white and middle class, white and working class and Asian and working class. The white vote has been solid for quite a while (including in local elections) with the middle class section voting overwhelmingly Tory and the working class section voting Labour. Blackburn's Asians are mostly Muslim and the invasion of Iraq had a major impact on political life here; though Labour has recovered a lot of ground in recent years, the LibDems continue to have a moderate amount of success in some Asian wards. It's unlikely that Blackburn will be quite the media circus it was in 2005, though there will be shades of it with the mother of extradited hacker Gary McKinnon almost certainly wasting £500 in the town. There's a decent chance that Straw will poll a higher share of the vote than 2005 though quite what the majority will be is a little uncertain.

Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Labour majority 8.5% over Conservative

The character of this constituency has been changed quite considerably by boundary changes; the Labour voting port of Fleetwood has been removed and replaced with some Blackpool suburbs that are not so friendly to the Party. The swing needed for this seat to fall is now at the lower end of swings predicted by most polls and the result is likely to be quite close. The good news for Labour is that the swing here in 2005 was tiny - more evidence (were it needed) of the massive longterm swing away from the Tories in this once ultra-Tory seaside resort. The bad news is that the 2007 local elections in Blackpool were nothing short of appalling. Labour will hope that this was more down to local anger at the failure of Blackpool to land itself the Super Casino (which was awarded to Manchester, but was scrapped early in the Brown premiership) than a sign that the Blackpool Tories have finally turned the corner.



Obviously this will take a while. I'll keep adding to it as and when.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the swing to the Tories in Wales however will be quite high.

Depends on turnout in The Valleys, to an extent. But the swing will be high in the coastal suburbs and (or so I reckon) in Anglophone rural areas. The results in most Powys towns in 2008 were... how should I put this... interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is driving a bigger swing in Wales than nationally?

The Tories have given Wales a bit more attention of late than they had done for quite a while (this has happened before; in the late 1970s) and memories of the last Tory government are fading outside the sort of places that would rather drink battery acid than vote Tory (the Tories will be lucky to poll as much as 10% in most of The Valleys). They're also the main opposition party in the National Assembly now that Labour and Plaid are in coalition, meaning that they get the additional media coverage that goes with that. Basically, there's always going to be an opportunity for a non-socialist, non-nationalist party to do very well in certain parts of Wales and the LibDems are too weak to be able to exploit this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

39. BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON - Has a full slate of Tory councillors, I think.  CON GAIN

It does, though it's questionable how much that matters in Birmingham. More to the point is that it's the sort of constituency that Labour have won largely because of large numbers of swing voters.

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That because she's Asian, because she's from Manchester or both?

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Surprisingly little of Powell's constituency is actually in the post 1974 Wolves SW (will have to double check to be entirely sure of how much or how little), but it includes a lot of families who lived in his constituency when he represented it, often living white-flight suburbs Tettenhall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I remember rightly, she's Afzal Khan's daughter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A quick review of the few predictions I made...

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.

Probably safer than the majority indicates. Anderson polled over 50% in 2005 and the Tory vote shrunk to what must be its absolute core (only 8%). This is quite a polarised constituency (an uneasy combination of industrial towns and villages and posh Newcastle suburbs) and it isn't clear where any extra LibDem votes might come from. The LibDems have also had some candidate problems. It seems likely that the seat will only be lost if things go dreadfully for Labour.

Even if things had gone dreadfully for Labour, we'd have held Blaydon. It is now a safe seat again.

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Labour held on. National factors had no impact at all, by the look of it.

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Labour won, but not by much - thuse proving the size of Kumar's personal vote. He'd have won by miles had he lived.

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Labour won here, and it wasn't ultra-close.

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A Tory gain by less than 1%.

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Now, here, I was wrong. This wasn't close and it wasn't determined by the fate of the parties nationally. And there wasn't even much laughable ticket-splitting; Labour made massive gains in the local elections here, even winning Whitley Bay.

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Ended up as an easy Labour hold. The third seat to declare as it happens... and the BBC's comments before the declaration seemed to indicate that we'd lost here; I was so depressed, as you can imagine. And then, after the declaration, both relieved and pissed off at the BBC...

I should add that had I carried on with this, I'd have added Redcar under 'not only, but also' as it was clear the LibDems were making a big effort there and had made striking gains in local by-elections. I'm not sure if I'd have called it for them, though I would have called Newcastle North for them by that point the campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North West

Barrow & Furness - Labour majority 12.5% over Conservative

One of three seats in 'Cumbria' where the work of the boundary commission has resulted in a weaker Labour position, Barrow & Furness is also an open seat; right-wing former cabinet minister John Hutton is retiring after four terms. The boundary changes might weaken Labour, but not greatly and not by enought to change the character of the constituency. Its largest town is Barrow-in-Furness, a shipbuilding town in Lancashire-across-the-Sands dependent on defense manufacturing; especially all things regarding nuclear submarines. Barrow is Labour's strongest part of the constituency but voted Tory in the 1980s because of Labour's then unilateralist stance (it probably didn't help that the otherwise well-regarded Albert Booth, the defeated incumbent in 1983, was a member of CND). The other towns are Ulverston, Dalton-in-Furness and Broughton-in-Furness. Ulverston and Dalton are both more capable of voting for either party, while Broughton (brought into the constituency by boundary changes) is strongly Tory. Labour have done poorly in local elections here (in part due to a splinter party) but that might not mean a great deal; Labour have underperfomed in local elections in this odd corner of the world for over thirty years. Boundary changes and the retirement of Hutton can only be good news for the Tories, but the government's committment to the Trident weapon's system is somewhat unlikely to hurt Labour in Barrow. Although the majority (just within range of the swing suggested by most polls) seems to indicate the importance of national swing here, it's possible - though by no means certain - that other factors will be of more importance.

A Labour hold with barely a swing at all. The key point of the prediction is in bold...

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Straw polled higher than 2005 and narrowly increased his majority.

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Tory gain; the local elections did portend to something, in this case. Blackpool South was fairly close as well.