Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thoughts on if osama will affect the result?

It won't. But it will give the pollsters an excuse if they're wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election Prediction Project's close-to-final projection currently stands at:
Conservatives 146
Liberals 65
NDP 61
Bloc 33
Independent 1
Too Close 2

The too close ridings are Laurier-Sainte-Marie in Quebec and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in Nova Scotia.  

Laurier-Sainte-Marie appears to be between the NDP and Bloc, while Dartmouth-Cole Harbour seems to be between the NDP and Liberals.  Ultimately, that means Election Projection projects the Liberals will end up with more seats than the NDP.  Interesting.

EPP tends to have a strong bias towards incumbents, which means that it can miss the boat when there's a large swing. Though as noted already they've had second thoughts about some seats already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the Star:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm a little out of it at the moment (and will be until I get to eat again at some point tomorrow; might not be online ar hyd y nos though I hope to be) so can't remember the usual answer to this question so must ask again; what times (BST) to the polls in each set close?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is now the thread for any post-election speculation; if any is actually needed. Discussion of riding results etc. should be in other thread.

Seems pretty likely the status quo will prevail, which is a waste.

While that's more likely than not, it's worth noting that the Canadian electorate can be a fickle thing, particularly during election campaigns.

Oh yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fry. It simply has to be Fry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Martin is one of two; Ashton was easily re-elected in Churchill. Let's not get too maudlin, especially as the reason for the poor result there will be gone by the time of the next election (even if we may not like the way in that reason is removed).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why should the NDP even want to merge with the Liberals? I really don't see the logic, not now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nova Scotia and Manitoba were disappointing.

And what do those two provinces have in common? The NDP is in power provincially in both.

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Yeah; I had a nasty feeling that the likely increase in Saskatchewan might be just about everywhere but the seat where they nearly won in 2008 - exactly what happened. Roll on the boundary review...

Relief that the vulnerable Burnaby seat held, btw. That - and Esquimalt - was a legit good result. Also Vancouver Kingsway has returned to its traditional status as a safe NDP seat.

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A tentative agreement on that point, yeah. Have a look at that list of NDP candidates with over 50% and there are clear patterns.

No disagreement wrt Ontario, though there were some very promising results in places; if there's ever serious discontent with the Harper government, anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'The woman'? Careful now...

Seriously though, voters do not like their will invalidated by a technicality. Ask Gerry Malone for details.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the Welsh elections tomorrow, tis time to change signatures. But I do like that picture of Lewis; not only an admirable man, but also a style icon:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who's the guy on the far left in your current sig? I'm semi-fascinated with the way he looks.

You mean on the far left as the viewer looks at the photo - the man with the folded arms?

Goronwy Roberts