Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than that, May has turned the Greenies into a 'Elect Me, Myself and I' party. She's basically campaigning 24/7 in Saanich and running jokes everywhere else.

Worked for Lucas, didn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've added some insets. Here is the 2008 map:



As always, bigger version in the gallery, including a blank map.

That's all really, really nice work

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the NDP is 2nd place in Quebec in every recent poll.

EKOS now has the NDP at 20%, and it hasn't been a "pro-NDP" pollster. Abacus also had us at 20%, Forum Research and Leger both have us over 20%, and while it's not on Wikipedia, according to threehundredeight, Environics has us at 20% too, but maybe they got it confused with EKOS.

Environics have the poll on their website: Con 39, Lib 24, NDP 22, BQ 9, Green 6

Separate figures are given for Ontario and Quebec, but not elsewhere. Ontario: Con 39, Lib 33, NDP 23, Greens 6. Quebec: BQ 37, NDP 26, Con 18, Lib 14.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Test run, using the 2008 results.

Edit: now with added inset.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fwiw, Election Prediction Project is currently guessing 114 Tory seats, 63 Liberal seats, 37 BQ seats and 27 NDP seats with 67 seats too close to call. Some of the Liberal calls seem a little questionable given current polling, but who knows.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two more Quebec riding polls... Leger again, apparently.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue: BQ 45, NDP 21, Lib 16, Con 15, Green 3
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou: BQ 30, Con 24, NDP 22, Liberal 20, Green 3

Not sure why they bothered with the latter as there are obvious reasons why it might be a little tricky to poll accurately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes I know it's a high profile race, but I'd assumed that the obvious issues with polling such a place would prevent any attempt to do so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarre, yet rather pleasing.

Regarding comparisons with the LibDem surge over here last year, one important difference is that the sudden spike in LibDem poll ratings happened (more or less) over a single weekend after the first televised debate, and not incrementally. It's fairly clear in retrospect that it was mostly the consequence of the collective incompetence of the polling industry; they were (and still are) basing their work off essentially useless statistics (including - ah, a pet hate - a model of occupation groups from the 1970s that wasn't even much use during the 1970s and which has no relationship to the reality of work in Britain in 2010) and dangerously crude assumptions about electoral motivation, turnout and so on.

Of course that doesn't make this 'real'. It's just that the chances of it being unreal are lower than the obvious cautionary tale.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Saying that, weren't ADQ leading for parts of that election in Quebec?

No.
The ADQ outperformed the polls by a good margin.
The polls had the ADQ sitting on 25 seats, and that was the "huge story"
They ended up with 41.

Ah, perhaps I'm confusing 'my fears' with 'the polls'. But examples of past poll surges in Canada, anyone?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But FPTP leads to that mindset? I remember seeing a poll before last year's UK election showing a majority of the population would vote Lib Dem but they felt it was a waste of time.

That was a laughably loaded question though. Not the first time they tried it either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the Bloc differ much from its British counterparts, Plaid and the SNP?

Well the SNP and Plaid are very different, so what do you think?

The Bloc is very different though; remember that separatist politics in Quebec started at provincial level through the PQ and that the BQ and PQ remain separate parties (though with extremely close informal ties, of course). While both the SNP and Plaid now view elections to devolved bodies as being more important, it doesn't change the fact that they were shaped by their parliamentary representatives and by political activism outside electoral politics. So you have that massive difference in terms of political culture.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Language is the elephant in the room...

Absolutely, yeah. Even when compared to Plaid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Reid... Con 43, NDP 24, Lib 21, BQ 6

What's more significant? Dippers in second or the fact that the poll doth scream 'Tory Majority'?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will Canada's weird laws on election coverage affect us at all?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that this changes the fact that prediction of elections by sign counting is on the dubious side.

Yeah. Though if you know what sort of patterns to look for, it can still be useful; last year I worked out that the Labour vote in North Wales was holding up a lot better than universally assumed from signs and window posters, so the happily low swings in my part of the world didn't cause a surprise.

In Britain it used to be the case that party labels were never printed on ballots (that changed in the 1960s) which meant that candidate signs and posters had an important practical purpose (it's also why there aren't nearly as many as there used to be). Was that the case in Canada as well?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Us?  No.  This isn't a Canadian website and those of us who aren't in Canada cannot be bound by the weird, anachronistic Canadian laws on election night coverage.  We can repeat whatever we hear from tweets and elsewhere.  Early results from Atlantic Canada and that one Quebec riding whose polls close an hour early always manage to get posted on the Internet somewhere.  It's just a question of finding it.

I didn't think so, but I always like to make sure. So, yay. Excellent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, looking a map shows me than Notre-Dame-de-Grâce has been slipt in the halves.

One is Westmount--Ville-Marie and one with Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine.

In English Canada, those would called gerrymanderers! Putting poor areas in ridings where there are outvoted by the wealthy communities.

They did the same thing to Côte-des-Neiges (multicultural poor riding). 2/3 in Outremont (but with trendy Mile End, they are able to outvote wealthy Outremont Borough, and 1/3 in Mount Royal (which is a very wealthy English city).

Have a look at the boundaries of the Jeanne-Le Ber riding as well. Of course that follows borough/ex-municipal boundaries, making it slightly different.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been some indications that there might be changes elsewhere, but regional subsamples are highly unreliable for reasons outlined upthread. It would be nice if there were a few - just a few would do - proper polls of each province. They're done for provincial elections after all, so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1150 people at an NDP rally in Duceppe's riding.

If those Quebec numbers are 'real' and hold up, then... it's hard to imagine isn't it, but...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, I dont think the NDP will win Duceppe's riding, but they put the rally there for a reason.

Neither do I, but logically speaking if all that we've seen is real and stays, then... well... very much a case of 'I'll believe it when I see it'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also the place where prostitutes were turned into sausages, don't forget. Adding a degree of gothic to the more run-of-the-mill urban blight and inner city depression.

The area has been held by the CCF/NDP since 1930 with just two breaks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good Lord. The BQ have dragged out Parizeau. They are desperate then.