Inverclyde by-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That the Holyrood equivalent of this constituency was held last month tells you something. Still, past experience reminds us to be... careful... when Scottish by-elections are concerned (even when we're in opposition). Cairns was a good MP and will have built up some kind of person vote over the past decade, while the SNP will surely benefit from the afterglow of the Salmondslide. I would expect a fairly comfortable hold, though with a swing against, absent any serious errors or game-changing events. Of course what cost Labour Govan in 1988 (amusingly enough the Holyrood constituency that covers most of that particular incarnation of Govan was not won by the SNP last month) was mostly suicidal candidate selection.

It's also worth noting that Greenock used to be that rarest of things; a Scottish industrial town with a substantial Liberal vote. That was ended by (it seems) their incompetent handling of the local council during 2003-2007, but there's still the history there. So, keep half an eye on Team Yellow. But not for the reasons that used to be a good idea in by-elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Profiles of those that seek the Labour nod: http://www.labourlist.org/party-unveils-inverclyde-shortlist

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Date set for the 30th of June.

I'm glad that Labour didn't pick the ex MSP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Perhaps, but then traditionally Prime Ministers do not campaign in by-elections; interesting that Brown's one-off in Glenrothes (which contained a large town that used to be in his constituency) has changed expectations to that degree.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Up until the past week this by-election has had remarkably little coverage, and now that it's actually getting some most of it is dreadful; just the usual collection of Scottish by-election clichés ('turnout is key', 'you can't rule out an SNP upset', etc) with the usual useless collection of uninteresting anecdotes and with very little useful information. Of course given the state of journalism these days that's hardly surprising, but it's a little on the irritating side.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is today. Media coverage has not improved, needless to say. Both Labour and the SNP seem to have been briefing that it's tight, but then they always do that unless it's likely to be an absolute rout (and have their own self-interest-based reasons to do so), so that doesn't necessarily mean anything, though who knows.

Oh well. Not long to go now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tweeters throwing out a Labour majority of 2-4k.

I just hope it isn't caused by the death of someone I like in circumstances that have additional... er... personal resonances. I was genuinely upset when I heard about Cairns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC don't seem to have any coverage on the interwebs this time (maybe that'll change later in the night?) but STV do.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liberals possibly behind UKIP... in Scotland.

More to the point... in Greenock.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, now... the BBC do: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13959117

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jo Swinson says ongoing LibDem catastrophe in Scotland because of 'communication problems'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 53.8
SNP 33.0
Con 9.9
LDem 2.2
UKIP 1.0

Labour majority of 20.8

---

I would say solid yet not spectacular for both major parties. Ghastly for the LibDems. Not much else to say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any chance of this result maybe causing our beloved Westminster hacks to cover by-elections (especially in Scotland) a little more... er... rigorously in the future? Rather than just rely on clichés along with some nonsense fed to them by the official campaigns? Again, in Scotland it is in the interest of both Labour and the SNP to claim that there's a tight race in most by-elections, even when there isn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, Dominic Carman. Here's the piece in question: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1363388/Barnsley-Central-election-Lib-Dems-Dominic-Carman-despised-man-town.html

Alas it was not originally published in the second half of Private Eye.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any chance of this result maybe causing our beloved Westminster hacks to cover by-elections (especially in Scotland) a little more... er... rigorously in the future?

No.

Question were entirely rhetorical.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know.

But still something that needed to be said.

No.

You would think differently if you'd seen Michael Crick's horrific linen suit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour