2004 Democratic Primary

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WV is still competative, although it is very likely to go Dem in 2004... but it's only 5 EV's.

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All going as I predicted

How many lawyers in Mississippi are there?

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Clarion-Ledger report high turnout

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I don't see how I made a fool of myself... I said that the GOP would pick up KY and that Mississippi would be close.
(The lawyers remark was a joke) .

Musgrove's big mistake was to concede the battle before it even started:
His posters said "independent" and "conservative". Democrat was not mentioned.
To fight on ground chosen by the enemy is stupid.
What Musgrove should have said is:
"populist" and "real Democrat".

Let that be a lesson to ya all.

But it's not all bad for the Dems:

Street won big in Philly(amazing what a bugging scandel can do).

And for the first time in a generation they picked up seats in the Virginia State House.

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I think you are confusing Oldham West and Royton with Oldham East and Saddleworth, which Labour picked up from the LibDems in 1997, and were only saved in 2001 by the BNP(!)

The LibDems don't control Oldham BC anymore, they cocked up the finances(ala Sheffield) and it's currently run by Labour.

Manchester Gorton is not going to be a LibDem gain, it's too working class and 41% is too big a hurdle for a General Election.
Also, the LibDems will be worried about defending nearby Cheadle from the Tories.

If Sheffield Hillsborough was going to go, it would have been in 2001 when the LibDems were still popular in Sheffield.
An upset is possible, but unlikely.

The LibDems are a local thing in Liverpool, most of their councillers are... erm... tin pot town hall hacks, who are not really elected because of the LD banner.
They did hold a seat till 1997, but that was due to the "Alton Factor"(David Alton MP was very popular locally and was elected because of who he was, not because he was a liberal).
Riverside is waaay too safe for an LD upset, if it happens anywhere I'tel be Liverpool Wavertree(which contains Alton's old fiefdom of Mossly Hill).

Instead look for:

Oldham East and Saddleworth, Cardiff Central, Colne Valley, Rochdale, Falmouth and Camborne, B'ham Yardley.

They are all much better bets.

As is Ceredigion(currently a PC seat) and tons of Tory seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can certainly see a Dem win in Virginia(with a margin under 10% it ain't safe) but not Mississippi and definately not SC.

In fact Mississippi and SC are the least likely of the Southern states to go Dem.

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Actually my predictions were:

Kentucky: GOP gain
Mississippi: Too Close(50% chance of under 50%)

What's wrong with that?

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The South went from Democrat dominance to GOP advantage.
It's importent to remember that and not get carried away with the idea that the South is a GOP "lock".

WV, Arkansas, Virginia, Tennesse, Lousiana, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia could all go Dem without any freak factors needed.
If you disagree, I can justify every one of them.

On the other hand Texas and South Carolina will not go Dem under any circumstances.

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Please note that these are not predictions.

Well I don't think most of em need justifying, but basically Bush's margins were only above 10% in NC and Georgia.

Georgia is prone to sudden and violent swings of opinion.

I don't know a lot about NC(so I'm probably wrong about this), but it seems fairly moderate.
But I repeat I don't know a lot about the state.

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IOWA

01 Waterloo and Dubuque c
02 Iowa City and Ceder Rapids c
03 Des Moines c
04 Winnebago c
05 Sioux City c

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Apparently the MP for Ottawa Centre(Mac Herb... I think) has resigned his seat.
Is this true? And if so when is the by-election going to be?

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A BBC correspondent has said that it's "the closest election for years".

Voting is on sunday.

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The election campaign has started and the latest Viacom poll shows United Russia leading the KPRF by 7%
However it was taken before "Yukosgate"...

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That's O.K

Out of interest if you were running Musgrove's campaign what slogans would you use?

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The South is very interesting.
Why do so many people vote against their economic interest so they can vote to state their position on wedge issues?

My theory on the South is that the current GOP advantage is a result of Democrat weakness not GOP strength.
This point was rammed home by Musgrove's insane campaign in Mississippi.

WV should go Dem next election if only because Bush has failed to halt the decline in the Coal industry and his education policy is being blamed for the states budget problems.
But it's only 5 EV's and won't cause Bush to lose re-election.

Other than WV, AR and LA the best chance for a Dem pickup may actually be Virginia(!)

I'm not sure what Dean is yet, but I'll agree that if Kerry wins the Dems will struggle to pickup any state other than NH...

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West Virginia

01 Wheeling c
02 Charleston c
03 Coal District c

Maine

01 Portland and Augusta c
02 Madawaska c

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The final boundary changes can be found at www.elections.ca

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Canada is run under the "Westminster System", in other words their are no fixed election dates and the P.M can call an election whenever he likes.
The new boundries come into force on the 25th of August, but Martin is under no obligation to call an election after or on that date.
He can call one on the 24th if he likes.

When the election is called partly depends on whether the boundry changes are favourable to the LPC, if they are expect an election to be called very soon after the 25th, if they are not expect an election any time before that date.

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I don't think LA will be that close because Bush won it by seven points.

Which is not a lot

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I've been looking at congressional results etc. from NC, and it appears that the Dems do have a chance there... with the right candidate with the right platform.

If we were to divide the South into different regions it may be easier to understand:

Upper South: Arkansas, WV, Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennesse and possibly Maryland, DC and Missouri.

Deep South: Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Lousiana

Texas: Texas

Florida: Florida

The Dems might do well in the "Upper South" in 2004, but are going to struggle in the Deep South until racial divisions begin to heal.
They have a chance in Florida, but Texas is a no no.
They were under 40% in Texas in 2000...

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Looking at the House results, Arkansas is a Democrat stronghold(if the popular vote is adjusted they won about 60%), and I think most Democrats will be able to win it in 2004.
Ditto WV.

Problem is neither are very large, and if Bush can pick up Wisconsin and Oregon it would negate those possible gains.

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I'm well aware of that, BUT they are a good guide in some cases. (and MUCH better than using Senate or Gubernatorial elections).

And warped results are fairly easy to spot
(2 in Virginia alone!)

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Some of the comments I have read on here about the south by people advocating a liberal position tell me why the Democrats have such a slim chance of winning any southern states next year.

There seems to an assumption among liberals that racism is the primary motivation for white southerners (whom the Democrats presume to all be "poor") to vote Republican.  The theory is that white southerners are stupid and vote against their own economic interests out of racial hatred.

This is essentially the position taken by Howard Dean, the former governor of a state that has virtually no black population.  Dean's statements on this issue are positively dripping with condescension toward southerners.  The reality of the situation is much more complex than this.

First off, the Republican party is not overtly anti-black.  It does not support the agenda of the NAACP or other left-wing "advocacy" groups, but that doesn't make it anti-black.  Republican-sponsored welfare reform has benefited blacks more than the Democrat-supported AFDC did, and Republicans support efforts to free blacks from failing inner city schools, while Democrats side with the teachers' unions.  One could make a very good argument that the programs espoused by the so-called proponents of black progress have had a big hand in preventing greater progress on racial issues in the past 30 years.

In addition, it is simplistic to say that Democratic economic policies will aid southerners, particularly the "poor" ones that Dean speaks about.  Maybe the southerners believe that lower taxes and greater economic freedom will lead to better job creation for them than higher taxes coupled with social programs.  Since the southern economy has been growing faster than the rest of the country for some time now, following more conservative economic policies, maybe the southerners are right.  Maybe not, but it is simplistic and condescending to say unequivocally that what white southerners need is more government programs.

I also think that northerners, especially ones like Dean who come from lily-white states like Vermont, ought to stop patting themselves on the back about their tolerance on racial matters.  There is a great deal of racial prejudice up north, and some of the greatest racial tensions and even violence have taken place in supposedly liberal places such as Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit.

New York and Boston, those great bastions of northern liberalism, are about as racially segmented as you can get, complete with high levels of hostility between the races.  Where I live in Connecticut, you couldn't have a greater degree of racial separation if it were imposed by law.  This doesn't happen by accident, but through the deliberate decisions of large numbers of individuals.  So I think northerners who criticize the south on the race issue ought to stop the self-deluding hypocrisy and look more deeply at the issue, outside the bounds of political correctness.

Zell Miller is right.  Until northern Democrats obtain a better understanding of the south and stop the condescension, they don't stand a chance there, and they shouldn't.

First off I'm not a liberal.

Facts are facts, a lot of people in the South are poor, and a lot of em vote against their economic interest.
It's also true that poor people need government intervention(DON'T even bother to argue about that. I live in a poor rural area).

And all credit to the GOP for their sucess in at getting people to vote against their economic interest.
If you take Texas and Florida out of the picture the South is not doing very well at all.

There is a lot of racism in the North, and even more out West(would you like to be black and in Idaho?)

I happen to think that a northerner like you can slag off other northerners for not "understanding" the South is hypocritical.

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I don't think LA will be that close because Bush won it by seven points.

Which is not a lot

Actually it is a lot.  He won LA against a strong canidate white a high black turnout.  I still believe that Dean will not get a high black turnout.

I don't think that Gore was a strong candidate, but I'll agree that the Flag stuff might stop a high black turnout for Dean.
Maybe he's going for the Yellow Dog vote?

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Clinton?