Labour Party leadership election 2015

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Lavery has decided against running and is instead backing Burnham. If this is an early sign of Left rallying around Burnham then this is potentially very, very good news for his candidacy.

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Where are most of Labour's target seats?

I think those two words are currently banned and five years is a long time indeed, but there are far more potentials for gains north of the Severn/Wash line than south of it.

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And Mary Creagh is in.

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Another possibility not mentioned on the thread so far would be Owen Smith (Shadow Welsh Secretary). He's on the Left so Lavery not running might increase his chances of getting nominations were he to try.

So how many registered supporters are there expected to be?

Depends on how much effort the various Unions put into signing people up.

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No runoffs; the vote is IRV.

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There will be a long schedule of public meetings and debates throughout the summer.

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No explanation given or hinted at so far.

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No explanation given or hinted at so far.

And now we have one. Apparently he didn't like the pressure.

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Bradshaw and Flint are both in the Deputy election.

Dugher will run Bunrham's campaign

Lord Falconer, Owen Smith and Luciana Berger joins his campaign team too

And a very interesting set of names that is as well.

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Creasy is running for Deputy.

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It appears Chukka was caught posting on some 1%-er social network asking where in London he could go to avoid "the trash" and whatnot.

Well that's been known for a while. I was looking forward to someone (most likely Burnham, but possibly Cooper or Creagh) pointing that out in an outraged manner during a debate. Oh well.

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Cry me a river; I cried, a river over you.

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Eagle is in the Deputy race.

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Eagle is in the Deputy race.

Angela Eagle, to be clear.

Are you sure?

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Yes, it looks as if (in nominations terms) there's only room for one of them.

Oh and Danczuk is not running for Deputy.

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2010 - Abbott and Ed Miliband

Miliband wasn't really seen as a candidate of the Left at the time so much as a candidate of the centre who was reaching out in their direction. Which of course is the key thing here: as factions have become less rigid (Neil Kinnock's greatest gift to the Labour Party, perhaps), crossfactional candidates have become more common in leadership elections.

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Both of them were.

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Mostly Gould was a weirdo.

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The Right backed Kinnock but he was never one of theirs.

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Shore's candidacy was the (distressingly feeble) last stand of the old Bevan/Wilson Left, although some of his support actually came from the workerist Right.

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Silkin was soft Left.

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1935 is long ago and far away in terms of Labour factionalism, but Attlee was effectively factionless (and that's why he won). His predecessor George Lansbury (1932-5) was the most left-wing leader Labour has ever had o/c. Greenwood was generally seen as a puppet of Ernest Bevin's.

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He wasn't, but he was still thought of as being one. Which is why he won.

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Amazing: http://lizforleader.co.uk/

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John Prescott has endorsed Burnham.

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Rushanara Ali to run for Deputy. That means six candidates already. Will they all get on the ballot?

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And we have another candidate for Deputy: popular backbencher and NEC member John Healey.

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If it is then its a rather poor predictor of who actually ends up holding the post. Over the centuries we have had some very odd and very unlikely PMs and their times in office have not always been brief.

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People still take Electoral Calculus seriously?

But as a more serious point, I will reiterate that the main electoral impact of larger seats with tighter quotas would be to a) greatly increase the impact of national swing while also b) reducing the power of incumbency.

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I would have made that remark six months ago as well. Electoral Calculus's notional figures are better described as notorious figures. But, anyway, that little jibe was not exactly the substance of my post...

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Burnham now has over 35 public PLP pledges and Cooper is only a few short.

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Jeremy Corbyn is now in, according to the New Statesmen.

He's a bit... antediluvian... to be sure of a ballot spot. But then maybe he'll benefit from a little charity?

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Burnham now has over 35 public PLP pledges and Cooper is only a few short.

And now Kendall is only a few short. Credit where it's due, she has outmaneuvered some rather more favoured names to take the Right/Progress slot on the ballot and there must be skill involved as no one can be that lucky. Hopefully she tones down some of her rhetorical excesses once the campaign proper begins.

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Since when do these SUK avatars exist?

Yesterday I think.