UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And if we're just posting embarrassing and 'embarrassing' stories about politicians like RSS feeds here's one for balance: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-2017-39925019/woman-accosts-may-over-carer-support

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sage brah

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Beware! These are collated regional breakdowns - and so of actually pretty limited worth - apart from the regions (London, Scotland, Wales) where YouGov have been commissioned to do proper polls (in these cases they've justed added in the most recent finding from each). Whatever one can say about YouGov's record as a pollster, they are damn fine at PR.

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It occurs to me that perhaps the Conservative manifesto was not entirely well judged in all respects.

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Correct to support the IRA and hope for the defeat of Britain. Well that's a matter of opinion. However its not an opinion widely shared in the UK. Wanting your country to be defeated by an enemy terrorist organisation is not a popular position in the UK. I don't imagine it would be popular in Germany or any other country for that matter.

Actually support for Irish Republicanism - not the same thing as support for the IRA and its bombing campaigns of course - was the majority position back during the Troubles, which is why it was always awkward for governments to rely on Unionist votes in the Commons at the time. The public saw the way the Catholic minority was treated splashed across its TV screens and mostly didn't like it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally, the Labour Uncut piece is really very, very bad; dubious 'data' (that is not shown to the reader - so we have no idea what it actually is or looks like or, bluntly, even if it actually exists - from sources that are not enumerated) that is then adulterated with various assumptions (exactly what these are or how they affect the 'data' is again not entirely clear) and turned into an extremely rigid predictive 'model' (one so crude that using the word 'model' seems inappropriate) that is then presented as absolute cast-iron Truth. A Truth that happens to fit in exactly with what Labour Uncut would like to see happen (these people having deluded themselves that they can return to relevance - they were never relevant but like to think that they were - only if Labour suffers an absolutely catastrophic defeat, after which they will be hailed as oracles or something). It is grotesque in its intellectual dishonesty and is the sort of thing that gives electoral analysis a bad name. It is disappointing to see it so eagerly linked to and re-tweeted across the wide political internet, though it isn't hard to see why. What amuses me slightly is that some of the people doing the sharing have had so much fun over the past year mocking the insistence of the more deluded Corbynites that (e.g.) LABOUR WERE AHEAD UNTIL CHICKEN COUP. Evidentially voodoo is voodoo and Polling is a Science you know and Rationality Matters until I Want To Believe...

...ah, you say, but what if it somehow turns out to be broadly accurate? Well, last year I made up up some fake polling figures from an entirely fictional firm for the state of Pennsylvania and posted them on this very forum as a joke. These fake figures turned out to be more accurate than those of the published polls. Does this mean that if I make up any more American polling stats for a joke that they should be treated as Serious and Reliable? No.

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Citation needed

There's a whole bunch of survey data from the period out there if you want to look in detail, but I'll go with the easiest: there was majority support for a United Ireland in every British Social Attitudes survey up until the Good Friday Agreement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And more specifically to Labour, Republicanism was the goal of the party until really the Good Friday Agreement. Which always meant Callaghan relying on both Gerry Fitt and Enoch Powell to win votes was rather dicey.

A lot of backbenchers were furious at the whips doing deals with Unionist MPs, yeah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Citation needed

There's a whole bunch of survey data from the period out there if you want to look in detail, but I'll go with the easiest: there was majority support for a United Ireland in every British Social Attitudes survey up until the Good Friday Agreement.

I.e. don't confuse the chants of 1980s football hooligans - a pretty despised group themselves! - with the social mainstream.

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Isn't Labour uncut on the very right of the party (e.g the Ultras)?

They're on the right wing of the right wing of the right wing, frankly. The sort of people who stan for Jim Murphy.

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https://twitter.com/SirDavidButler/status/866643815708463104

gonna need some ice for that burn t. may.

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I remember when this was Labour's talking point in 2015

Right, but of course the issue isn't whether Labour will win or not (even the most optimistic don't see that), which makes it a very different situation.

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Regarding Wales, it's worth noting that Welsh polling is famously volatile and massive swings during a campaign are quite common. You do sometimes wonder how real they are, but it isn't like it's ever possible to know. If Labour were to actually hit 44% it would be the best PV result since 2001 and actually only a point off Kinnock's impressive debut in 1987. And equally it's worth noting that 34% would still be a very strong Tory figure.

Now, leaving aside the matter of the very high scores for both Labour and the Tories in the poll, a relatively strong showing for Labour Wales is hardly implausible: a) in 2015 Labour fell back a little in Wales while gaining a little overall, b) Labour's performance in the locals a few weeks back was stronger in Wales than elsewhere (even in the basket case authorities where winning control is quite the poisoned chalice), c) Labour in Wales may benefit from a more independent profile, d) it's certainly possible that more not-particulary-political people in Wales are attracted by the idea of nationalising utilities and the railways than elsewhere in the UK. But we shall see...

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Not cool buddy.

Please leave this forum and never return.

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...

That is honestly one of the most pathetic pieces of inappropriate self-indulgent whinging I've seen during the frankly far too many years that I've posted here. Children have died but it's all about your RIGHT to slaver with anticipation at the potential electoral consequences! Get out.

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This is the very definition of political correctness.

No, it's what people from previous (and now almost entirely deceased) generations used to call decorum. It's a shame that people are so badly brought up these days that they don't know how to behave.

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And before anyone accuses me of making partisan points out of last night's tragedy...

You are aware that this sort of handwaving doesn't actually the sting out of such criticism? Quite justified in this case as always. You know more people would like you if you were less odious.

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I mean very shortly the ordinary election campaign will have started again and you can all discuss that!

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YouGov poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so after the bombing. Anyway. Odd election this one.

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tbf I am not a fan of Corbyn at all, but he didn't use it but rather put forward his political insight to how to fight terror the Tories responded in a campaign manner if anything

Quite so. To be honest I did *gulp* a little bit on hearing that he had decided to do a speech on that issue, but he said nothing that I've not heard from rather a lot of people (many of them not exactly lefties!) recently and said it a pretty mature and reasonable manner.

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This isn't part of Theresa May's grand plan to boost turnout- she's ran a boring, useless campaign, and it frankly shows that there is no-one at the top who's got any GE experience.

Yes the 'it's good news for the Tories that their lead has dramatically shrunk' take is an... odd... one. Of course they are still in position for a solid win, but that isn't what they were looking for from the election.

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There's still just under two weeks to go so much can change, but if anyone who doesn't live here is wondering why the tone has changed so much recently then this gives a pretty good summary.

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I dare say that, to the average person under the age of 45, who have barely any recollection/experience of the troubles, talking about the IRA are basically irrelevant. On the flip side, people over the age of 45 are already voting Tory.

So the "IRA! IRA!" argument isn't going to land as heavily as people think.

...and the thing that a lot of people have forgotten: in the 1980s and 90s rather a lot of people here were broadly sympathetic to Irish Republicanism, even if o/c not to the IRA.

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If the patterns of the local elections are repeated - hardly a certainty of course - there are some other seats in Scotland (mostly former mining areas) where Labour might have a chance at gaining. But that's a believe-it-when-it-happens thing.

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Labour may be narrowing the gap, but they are not closing it fast enough and there is a real possibility of polls overstating them.

Well Labour aren't going to win; the issue is the amount of furniture saved. And the closer the gap the more chairs there are...