Major and Cameron weren't always expected to go the distances they did either.
Smith and Miliband never became PMs now did they.
TL,DR: Don't count out BoJo yet.
I presume you mean Kinnock rather than Smith, given that Smith, rather famously, died two years into his term as Labour Leader and would certainly have become PM had he lived?
As a general rule I find it better not to make predictions about this kind of thing, but Johnson's approval ratings right now are truly
foul and the last time a Prime Minister was able to turn things around from that sort of position was Thatcher in her first term: and this only because of an easy military victory against an actual fascist regime that had invaded British territory.
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