Wales 2007; results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Welsh Assembly elections only. Scottish results and so on go in the Scottish thread, English local results and so on, in the English locals thread.

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Polls have closed.

I'm feeling quite pessimistic; I think Labour will win o/c, but the losses will be on the bad end of realistic ones.

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If the rumours be true, the Tories have done rather well. I had a feeling that this might happen...

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Looks like the Tories will probably replace Plaid as second-largest party.

Yep. That's unless the rumours be false... which I doubt. The possibility of the Tories doing very well in areas with lots of commuters has always been there...

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True. But I'm feeling pessimistic tonight.

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That high? Surprising.

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BBC reports a rumour from Ynys Mon... apparently turnout has not been as good as IWJ had hoped for.

He could be in trouble

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BBC reports a rumour from Ynys Mon... apparently turnout has not been as good as IWJ had hoped for.

He could be in trouble

Is he also on a regional list?

No, because constituency candidates are banned from running on the list. If he loses, he's out of the Assembly.

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Llanelli postal votes neck-and-neck apparently

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No hard results yet; just gossip. When the actual results come through, le Beeb should be fine to use.

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Rumours are that the LibDems might have somehow managed to win Newport East on the back of a pisspoor turnout. If they do actually win it, LibDem leader Mike German could well lose his list seat.

Odd.

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No hard results yet; just gossip. When the actual results come through, le Beeb should be fine to use.

They've already called a council for Labour, though, which would presumably mean results were coming in from somewhere. Is there a council where not enough Labour seats are being challenged for Labour to even theoretically be able to lose control?

Of course. But see the England thread

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Apparently Labour have done very badly in Blaenau Gwent

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Rumours are that Labour may have ousted Marek.

And apparently Preseli Pembroke is too close to call.

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Rumours are now flying all over the place and contradicting each other. Damn.
But the rumours agree that the Tories are doing well in areas in which they are traditionally strong.

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Labour have apparently conceded in Llanelli. Ah, well. Hardly a surprise.

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More rumours... apparently Davies is winning in Swansea West... while Jones is in trouble in Bridgend.

Also odd.

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Half the rumours above have been contradicted by other ones. I can't work out what the hell is going on right now...

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First result... Lab hold Islwyn. Lab 37.7%, Ind 28.3%, Plaid 21.6%

Hard to draw too many conclusions from this as the Labour incumbent is widely regarded as being incompetent and there was a (very) strong Indie.

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How's Vale of Clywd? Heart it was on a knife edge

I do know that the Tories led there on the list vote. Socially polarised that one.

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Lab hold Cynon Valley. 7-point swing to Plaid.

A smaller swing to Plaid than I'd expected there.

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How's Vale of Clywd? Heart it was on a knife edge

I do know that the Tories led there on the list vote. Socially polarised that one.

You don't know how lucky you are to have it counted by hand believe me!

Apparently Labour lead by about 100 votes. Yeah, I heard that the wee experiments didn't work out so well. Can't be much fun for you candidates.

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Labour hold Merthyr (duh) but this has to be one of the weirdest results I have ever seen:

Lab 37%
LDem 15%
Ind 12%
Plaid 12%
Ind 9%
Con 5%
Ind 4%
Ind 4%
Ind 1%

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Lab hold Merthyr Tydfil. Big Independent vote there, too, good for third and fifth. Cons in sixth place!

Politics in Merthyr can be rather odd at times

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Labour hold Merthyr (duh) but this has to be one of the weirdest results I have ever seen:

Lab 37%
LDem 15%
Ind 12%
Plaid 12%
Ind 9%
Con 5%
Ind 4%
Ind 4%
Ind 1%

Wales seems to be developing a plague of "Labdependents" in the wake of the Laws, Davies and Marek.

Heh, the polite term is "Independent Labour" (although they aren't allowed to put that on the ballot anymore).

But such people have done well in Merthyr for ages; S.O.Davies anyone?

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LDs hold Montgomeryshire. Labour in fifth behind UKIP! (UKIP gets a shocking 10% of the vote.)

Not shocking; Montgomery is "like that"... some parts are really just Shropshire, West...