Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?

[smoltchanov]

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?

Combination of two things: 1) Tea Party is trying to make a power grab across the state, they've also fielded candidates in Metro Jackson and on the Coast. 2) DeSoto County is generally receptive to Tea Party Republicans. McDaniel won 70% of the vote there in the primary runoff last year.

Thanks! Hope they will fail...

[smoltchanov]

hopefully they all win the primary and lose the general and the democrats take the legislature.

I don't care about parties (because they never cared about me). But care very much about individual candidates...

[smoltchanov]

^ Very intersting. So - generally status quo? The only possible mistake i see is in SD-36. Butler is unopposed, but district is marked as "Safe R"....

[smoltchanov]

When Mississippi will start becoming a toss up?

Considering how the old are heavily republican (Romney: 78-22) and that Obama carried heavily the youth vote, I'm sure it will be a battleground in the future.

In federal elections, maybe by 2028 or 2032. I expect the Democrats to be competitive in the 2019 gubernatorial race, especially if Brandon Presley runs.

Agree on gubernatorial, but more pessimistic on federal: my guess is about 2040 (and i will need a rather long life to see it - i will be slightly over 80 then...))))

[smoltchanov]

So, 36.5% Black seems to be a sort of "cut-off line": only 2 Republicans above it and only 2 Democrats (an "old style" - white, and, at least somewhat conservative leaning) - below...

[smoltchanov]

So, "native" Republican electorate (not conservative Democrats, who vote Republican in November) is heavily concentrated in southern part of the state (except DeSoto and Tupelo area), while "Dixiecratic" vote - in the North-East?

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! All clear)))

[smoltchanov]

I find it fascinating across all southern states that the Republican strength first came from urban and suburban areas. They were the first ones to actually call themselves Republicans, but over time rural whites are slowly shedding traces of Democratic voting and Democratic identification.

Historically - yes. But right now it's not always true. In a sense that close suburbs of southern big cities (not exurbs!) are less Republican now, then many rural areas. And many urban areas, where movement to Republican party began in 1950 - 1960, are Democratic-leaning now (Dallas, Atlanta, and so on). Texas, where rural areas became not simply Republican, but - extremely Republican, and where Democrats usually don't run candidates at all in these areas, is good example..

[smoltchanov]

^ So, no more then 1 relatively close statewide race? Hope that legislative races will be more interesting....

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks. I hope we will get a good discussion of results (and what they mean) later this week...

[smoltchanov]

I still can't understand that Gray person. Seems to be "some dude" in purest form, but - managed to win absolutely different (Black, white, rich, poor, urban, rural, mostly liberal, mostly conservative) and so on parts of the state. Something must be behind all this)))

And, if i understand correctly, "establishment" did rather well in state Senate races, while "insurgents" (of tea-party type) did better in state House primaries (almost exclusively because of DeSoto). Am i correct?

And one additional note - with Hale gone there is one less conservative Democrat in state Senate. Wilemon seems to me being the only one, who may be called one..

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!. If i understand correctly - "some dude" at top of the ticket may adversely affect some close legislative races in November, so forecast for November somewhat tilts into Republican favor...

[smoltchanov]

How many seats will MS republicans pick up? Could they lose seats?

Few (most likely - one, Dawkins's,  she is simply very liberal, much more then her district) in Senate, more (my present guess is about 5, after disastrous governor primary) - in House.

Democrats may pick seats here and there, but - few, with such strong statewide Republican coattails. In addition - voting in the state is heavily polarized along racial lines, and there are relatively few (though they exist) really competitive "purple" districts. Math is, generally, simple: most districts in the state (especially - majority-white) are generally conservative. In the past Democrats could compete in many of them running strongly conservative candidates (almost as conservative as Republicans, and in some rare cases - even more so). Such candidates are, essentially, extinct, on Democratic side, so their (Democrats) chances lie almost exclusively in more liberal (usually - majority Black) districts, and only few besides them.... That easily guarantees Democrats about 40 districts, but it's extremely difficult for them to get 61....

Of course - everything is my personal post-primary guess...

[smoltchanov]

I am disgusted. I never thought we'd hit rock bottom like this.

Vicki Slater went out on a limb to run for governor. Yes, she was always going to be a big longshot against Bryant, but she was at least going to try.

In future years, it's going to be even harder to recruit viable candidates for statewide office because they'll have legitimate reason to worry they'll get Grayed.

Who are responsible for that? Voters? But you will not get different voters in foreseeable future... So - what to do??

BTW, i am still curious to know whether Gray is really Black or white?

[smoltchanov]

2 RG Griff Thanks for excellent map!

And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

[smoltchanov]

And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

I don't think so. The Dawkins last name would help him, I'd guess. Deborah Dawkins may be liberal, but she keeps getting elected (3 times) so it doesn't appear to be that big of a deal to the voters.

Nevertheless - she has difficult race on her hands this time (almost alone among Democratic state Senators), and may finally lose (especially - with such nonstandard governor candidate at the top of the ticket). In fact, according to some ratings, Dawkins is more liberal then majority of black state Senators from reliably Democratic majority-minority districts. IMHO, for such deeply conservative state as Mississippi that may be somewhat too much..

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! So, some Republican gains in Senate, almost status quo in House, and difficult race for Democratic leader in House Moak? Well, not bad after all. Immediately after primary the feelings among Mississippi Democrats seemed to be much more pessimistic..

[smoltchanov]

^ Well - interesting. I independently came to mostly similar conclusions. And because Russians usually don't give a damn about "political correctness" (and, surely, i - don't) - still adhere to it... Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - Travis Childers and Eric Powell are very dissimilar: one is somewhat conservative (though - populist) inclined white Democrat of "good old boy" type, another - slightly left-of-center Black Democrat of "new generation". Besides both being Democrats - not much in common.....

Though i agree with your rating: the race is at least "likely Republican" in my book... After Obama - few Mississippi voters cross "established racial lines".... As i said many times - i still have a gut feeling that deeply inside many whites still think - "you, national Democrats,  forced us to abandon a lifestyle we got accustomed to for century and a half, and our principles (yes, including white's political dominance), but you can't force us to vote for your candidates. Most Blacks vote Democratic? Fine. We will vote Republican to neutralize them...".... Almost no one will acknowledge that publicly, but many vote exactly in accordance with such reasoning... They will vote for those they consider "their own" (as Wilemon, absolutely unopposed in very white and Republican  (on high level) district), but - that's all...

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

[smoltchanov]

One of the several reasons Personhood failed is that blacks overwhelmingly rejected it.

If Powell "supported" Personhood, it's because he was a desperate wuss trying to say anything to get reelected. I highly doubt he actually believes that abortion should be illegal in all cases, including rape, that birth control pills and IVF should be banned, that police should investigate miscarriages the same way they would in a child's death, etc.

Either way, I don't really care if he wins in November or not after knowing that. Ideally, we'd primary out every "Democratic" legislator who supported Personhood -- every single one of them is either a beyond-the-pale extremist conservative, or will say anything while flailing to get votes. Personhood is the absolute craziest, most vile, off-the-deep-end right-wing idea that's been somewhat mainstream this century.

So, you agree to give up Wilemon's, Jolly's and similar seats in Senate, Bain's, Steverson's, Sullivan's and similar seats in House, and so on? And remain with Deborah Dawkins ONLY? How many seats would you have in Legislaure??? I think Chris McDaniel would send big "Thank you!" note in such case...

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

True but blacks shot down Personhood by a large margin. In precincts that are almost 100% African American, Personhood only won about 15-20% of the vote. Harder to determine what % of whites voted for it as there was a clear urban-rural divide. There is a huge difference between a white precinct in Eastabuchie (if any of you can name which county this town is in, major props ) and a white precinct in Jackson.

Jones. I will not pretend that i knew it absolutely for sure, but Jones was of 3 counties that came to my mind..

Agree with everything else. But we speak about winning elections, don't we? To get a majority it's not enough to win black-majority districts only. You need white-majority districts too. And many of them were more supportive of Personhood and other social conservative issues. To win them you need to run relatively conservative Democratic candidates (who almost always will be still somewhat more liberal then Republican ones). I don't advocate running conservative Democrats in liberal districts))). And yes - i know that there are socially moderate (or even liberal) white-majority districts in Mississippi, but you probably agree - not too much of them.. So, conservative Democrats are absolutely needed for getting majority, at least - now. May be - demographic changes will make them unnecessary by 2045, but - not now))))

[smoltchanov]

It seems to me that almost all Democratic runoffs happen to be in majority-black districts (may be - because they can give a good lifetime employment for candidate, so - many people run there). Am i correct?

[smoltchanov]

Regional splits would be interesting. My guess is that Trump (essentially running as conservative populist) would be more popular in Northern and Central East parts of the state, while more "establishment" candidates would do better in Jackson area,  and in Delta... Coast - i have no idea...