2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[smoltchanov]

Still too early. Good god people think shifts in either direction will matter much in November. Right now, 538 and RCP have the dems up by 8 points in the generic ballot, but I'm certain it'll be a different story in a few weeks, let alone November.

+100. Exactly my thoughts too. That's exactly the reason why i don't make any final predictions until 1 month before election day.

[smoltchanov]

January seems to be a bit of a “choose your own adventure” month thus far

IMHO - "choose a pollster you are comfortable with, and believe him only..."

[smoltchanov]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

But they lead.. Of course, as distribution is very nonuniform (Republican margin in TX-13 will be far more then in NY-24),  that means that Democrats will win districts, but may be - less, then they expect. And they don't need 64-26 margin in their districts - yeah, that means, that there is minimal danger to lose substantial number of them, but it adds nothing to their numbers.