Italy 2013: The official thread

[Andrea]

Marini was the Senate President when Prodi's government collapsed, right? I remember him flipping out when the center-right members started literally popping bottles in celebration.

In a truly classy fashion, they were eating mortadella. Literally.

[Andrea]

Enrico Letta is tempory in charge of what is left of PD

[Andrea]

Friuli has not been a bloodbath for PD....but maybe worse...their candidate is now 2% ahead of PDL but the missing areas to be reported should favour PdL-Lega...so I think she may lose by 1% in the end....lose by such a tiny margin after last week's events

Grillo's candidate is around 20%

[Andrea]

Almost exactly a two thousand vote difference. There are 56 precincts left. 26 of those are from the Udine comune (which PD is winning by right points). She might just hold on...

Yes, she held on. Now just 30 precints left. 20 of them are in Udine town (favouring her) and not the little villages in the province (favouring PdL-Lega).

[Andrea]

Final results for Friuli

Serracchiani (PD, SEL, Italy of Values, 2 local lists) 39.39%
Tondo (PdL, Lega, La Destra, UDC, Pesionati, local list) 39%
Galluccio (M5S) 19.21%
Bandelli (local list) 2.4%

Lists

PD 26.82% (19 seats)
PDL 20.3% (7)
M5S 13.75% (6)
Tondo's list 10.72% (4)
Lega 8.27% (3)
Serracchiani's list 5.3% (3)
SEL 4.45% (3)
UDC 3.69% (1)
Bandelli's list 2.06%
La Destra 1.55%
Slovenian minority list (pro Serracchiani) 1.41% (1)
Italy of Values 1%
Pensionati 0.94%

[Andrea]

Also, did the 20% decrease in turnout hurt Tondo?

Low turnout hurt PdL. However, last week's PD debacle could have depressed their base

Tondo had a list separate from PdL?

Something called Autonomia Responsabile (with his name in the logo).

Centre-left had Citizens for Serracchiani President.

They often create this kind of lists in local elections to support candidates for presidents or mayor.

[Andrea]

With 1 precint missing, the PdL incumbent in Udine province is set to be reelected with 50.04%. PD and co candidate polled 41.06%. No M5S in provincial contest.

The counting for Udine mayor is at midway. It looks like the PD incumbent will go to the run off with the PdL challenger. Centre-left is around 10% ahead.

[Andrea]

Deputy PM and Home Office: Angelino Alfano (PDL)
Economy: Fabrizio Saccomanni (director of Bank of Italy)
Development: Flavio Zanonato (PD)
Transports: Maurizio Lupi (PDL)
Health: Beatrice Lorenzin (PDL)
Justice: Anna Maria Cancellieri (Home Office Sec under Monti)
Work: Enrico Giovannini (National Statistics Institute President)
Education: Maria Chiara Carrozza (PD, Rector of a University)
Culture, Tourism: Massimo Bray (PD)
Agriculture: Nunzia di Girolamo (PDL)
Environment: Andrea Orlando (PD)
Foreign: Emma Bonino
Defence: Mario Mauro (Monti's List, former PDL)
EU Affairs: Enzo Monavero Milanesi (same position held under Monti)
Regional Affairs: Graziano Del Rio (PD)
Territorial Cohesion: Carlo Trigilia
Relationship with Parliamenet : Dario Franceschini (PD)
Reforms: Gaetano Quagliariello (PDL)
Integration: Cécile Kyenge Kashetu (PD)
Equal Rights, Youth, Sport: Josefa Idem (PD, former Olympic Gold)
Public Administraton: Giampiero D’Alia (UDC)

Under Secretary to the Presidency: Patroni Griffi (Public Administration Secretary under Monti)

[Andrea]

MPs present:623
MPs voting: 606
Abstentions: 17
Yes 453
No 153

Lega abstained

[Andrea]

Civic Revolution disbanded today

[Andrea]

Centre-left incumbent held Udine mayorality in the run off

PD-SEL & Co 54.69%
PDL-Lega-UDC&Co 45.31%

Turnout dropped from 60.57% to 48.4%.

2 weeks ago Centre-Left got 21,408 votes and Centre-Right 16,574.

In the run off, Centre-Left 20,631 and Centre-Right 17,094.

It looks like Grillini (14.67% on first round) didn't vote this time and there has been little movements between the 2 main blocks.

[Andrea]

I've found 2 polls

Datamonitor: Marino 37% Alemanno 32% De Vito (5 Stars) 17% Marchini (Independent) 10%
Spincon: Marino 34.8% Alemanno 30% De Vito 18.9% Marchini 11.2%

They didn't test a run off.

[Andrea]

Main cities voting during the weekend

Rome (held by Centre-Right) *
Brescia (CR) *
Lodi (CL)
Sondrio (CL) *
Treviso (CR)
Vicenza (CL) *
Imperia (CR)
Massa (CL)
Pisa (CL) *
Siena (CL)
Ancona (Cl)
Viterbo (CR) *
Isernia  (CL)
Avellino (CL)
Barletta (CL)
Catania (CR) *
Messina (CR)
Siracusa (CR)
Iglesias (CR)


*=incumbents re-standing

[Andrea]

At the end of first day of voting, average turnout 44.66% vs 60% last time.
In Rome it's down from 57.2 to 37.69

[Andrea]

There were also regional elections in Valle d'Aosta. They voted only on Sunday. So we already have the final results

Union Valdôtaine 33.47% (44.38% in 2008)
Stella Alpina 12.25% (11.39%)
Fédération Autonomiste 2.18% (6.17%)

Total Autonomist Coalition 47.9% (61.95%)

Union Valdotaine Progressiste  19.21%
Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 12.41% (12.49%)
PD 8.88% (9.31%)

Total Progressist Coalition 40.5% (27.4%)

5 Stelle 6.62%
 
PDL 4.11% (10.65%)

LeALI 0.86%

Seats:

Union Valdôtaine 13 + Stella Alpina 5 = 18
Union Valdotaine Progressiste 7 + Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 5 + PD 3 = 15

5 Stars 2

PdL 0

Turnout 73.03%

[Andrea]

First Rai projection for Rome

Marino 39.2% Alemanno 32.2% 5 Stars 12.8% Marchini 9.5%

[Andrea]

It looks like that Marino's lead is now estimated at 10% which is quite sizeable.

but aren't Marchini voters very likely to go his way? Wasn't he in Berlusconi's government?

No. But Marchini seems one of those people who is in touch with all high profile powerful men around (Caltagirone, Vatica, CL, Opus Dei, D'Alema, Gianni Letta)

[Andrea]

M5S don't usually endorse anyone as they are all bad. So I wouldn't expect them to back anyone in the run off.

Marchini says he will judget manifestos. There're 15 days left and so lots of time to study them according to him.

Projections now giving Marino a 12% lead.

Centre-left can hold 4-5 "capoluoghi" today. Everything else will go to run off, generally with CL ahead.

Ancona is a bit meah for PD. They are favourite in the run off but % is quite bad for them there.

[Andrea]

Counting (actually reporting) seems slower than usual, isn't it?

In some places PD is mediocre but PDL managed to do even worse and there has not been a 5 Stars breakthrough.

Centre-Left should have held Pisa, Massa, Imola, Sondrio and Vicenza without needing a run off. I am still puzzled on why PD actually held Vicenza in first place!

Good Centre-Left showing in Imperia (and without SEL). And they are ahead also in Treviso against Gentilini.

With PDL, I guess we should go back to the fact that PdL is Silvio and its success is Silvio's success. So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.

[Andrea]

PD & Co also held Isernia with 50.54%. Good for them as the candidate was running way below his supporting party lists and so he could have had trouble in a run off where the focus is more on candidates rather than lists.

[Andrea]

Mayoral elections....I list just municipalities which are "capoluogo" (they give the name to the province, usually the largest town in the area).

Sondrio: CL 53.8% CR 20.91% Lega 7.87% Local list 6.69% 5S 5.94%
Vicenza: CL 53.47% CR 27.38% 5 Stars 6.5%
Massa: CL 54.17% Centre 18.79% 5 Stars 12.01% PDL 5.29%
Pisa: CL 53.48% CR 12.66% 5 Stars 10.49% Right 9.98% Left 8.08%
Isernia: CL 50.54% CR 42.95%

Run offs on June 9-10:
Brescia: CL 38.06% CR 38% (5 Stars 7.29%)
Lodi: CL 43.3% CR 34.48% (5 Stars 6.36%)
Treviso: CL 42.53% CR 34.82% (5Stars 6.91%)
Imperia: CL 46.83% CR 28.2% (Left 11.24% 5Stars 9.02%)
Siena: CL 39.54% CR 23.37% (Left 10.29% 5 Stars 8.56%)
Ancona: CL 37.65% CR 20.52% (5 Stars 15.02% Left 9.54%)
Roma: CL 42.6% CR 30.27% (5 Stars 12.43% Indy 9.48%)
Viterbo: CL 35.85% CR 25.17% (5 Stars 6.9%)
Avellino: CL 25.31% Centre 23.03% (CR 16.55% 5 Stars 5.7%)
Barletta: CL 43.68% CR 26.88% (Socialists 17.6 5 Stars 8.16%)
Iglesias: CL 49.52% CR 45.53%

Trevisto, Brescia, Imperia, Rome and Viterbo were held by CR, the rest by CL. In Sondrio, Vicenza, Brescia, Rome, Viterbo and Pisa the incumbent mayor was restanding (there's the 2 consecutive terms limit)

CL= centre-left CR= centre-right 5Stars= Grillo
The remaining % are local lists or fringe parties

[Andrea]

In Sulmona there's a dead man in the run off.

Franceschini's girlfriend has been elected to Rome city council (she's 8th among PD councillors candidates. PD would get 9 seats even if Marino loses the run off.).
In both PD and Marino's list, a candidate called Marino got most preferences. I guess some got confused and wrote Marino thinking about the mayoral candidate...

[Andrea]

Results for run offs and Sicilian first rounds today.

At 10 PM last night turnout was dreadful in some places. On average it's at 33.87% for run offs compared to 42.38% 2 weeks ago.

[Andrea]

La7 Instant Poll gives a 60-40% split in Marino's favour in Rome. Piepoli's poll has a 55-45 split

Turnout in 40s.

[Andrea]

Siena  was very close at one point. Now with 35 polling places out of 50 counted, PD is leading 52.7% to 48.3%. It should be enough to hang on

PD to gain Brescia, Treviso and Viterbo.

Ahead 53 to 47% in Lodi with over 2/3 counted.

Big lead for PD in Ancona. Barletta too last time I checked

PD gain Imperia with 76% of the vote!!