Italy 2013: The official thread

[Andrea]

Looking at the Senate

Berlusconi led Veltroni by 9.3% in 2008 at national level

The following regions were won by Berlusconi:

Sicily (25 seats available overall) 25.8% lead
Lombardy (49) 23.1%
Veneto (24) 22.8%
Campania (29) 17.2%
Friuli Venezia Giulia (7) 12.4%
Apulia (20) 11.7%
Piedmont (22): 9%
Calabria (10) 8%
Sardinia (Eight) 3.3%
Lazio (28) 2.8%
Abruzzo (7) 2.6%
Liguria (Eight) 1%

PD carried

Tuscany (18) 16.1
Emilia Romagna (22) 12.8%
Umbria (7) 10.8%
Marche (Eight) 8%
Basilicata (7) 7.6%

Molise having just 2 seats, it's likely to end up 1-1

Abroad, 2 seats in Europe (so another 1-1 tie), 2 seats in South America (PD finished third last time), 1 each in North America (PDL won by 1.2%) and  Oceania/Asia/Africa/Antartide (PD won by 1.7%).

Valle d'Aosta and Trentino still have FPTP constituencies. I read somewhere SVP made a pact with PD in Alto Adige.

A further problem for PD (other that the worst regions for them are the ones with more seats in play) is that if they lose Veneto, Lombardy and Sicily again, they won't get all the opposion seats but they will probably have to divide them with Grillo and Monti (they should get 8%).

[Andrea]

Are we trusting Berlusconi stepping aside? How many times did he say it?

In his reformist spirit, Monti promises to reform the taxes he created and to lower some taxes. You see we are in the middle of an election campaign.

It would be nice if PD manages to talk about something that it's not their candidates' lists.
And if they can keep Vendola silent for 2 more months.

I'm reading that part of this deal between PdL and the Traitors is PdL support for Maroni when he runs for President of Lombardy in the special regional election. I wonder how far ahead PD is in that one because handing over the largest region to the leader of Lega Nord would be so very, very sad.

PdL was still candidate-less in Lombardy anyway.
Albertini (former Mayor of Milan) is running alone (now with UDC/Monti's support) taking some votes from PDL. PD has a good candidate. He would have won with all the splits on the right.

[Andrea]

Thanks for the figures. They confirm Lombardy is the one too watch.
Lazio and Piemonte looks good for PD. Campania is too close (I suppose Ingroia is benefiting from De Magistris).

However, you are right about Civic Revolution being high compared to national polls (more than 5% in Lombardy would mean they are going to pass the 4% threshold at the House while all national polls put them below it IIRC).

[Andrea]

The PD candidates lists

House
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-candidati-camera.pdf

Senate
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-senato.pdf

The missing spots were indicated in the early drafted version as "National, Other Parties". So I suppose they are where the Socialist names and I don't know who (they tell me someone from Piemonte's I Moderati may get the Piemonte spot) will be fitted in

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates

[Andrea]

IPSOS poll presented last night during Ballarò

House

Bersani coalition 39.8%
Berlusconi coalition 23.1%
Monti coalition 17.6
Grillo 12.5%
Ingroia 5.5%

Senate

Bersani coalition 40.3
Berlusconi 23.8
Monti 16.6
Grillo 12.2
Ingroia 5.1

The Civic Revolution's score ties with their regional polls figures published by Sole 24 Ore 2 days ago.

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates

I had to scroll through the list twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. I assume the PD incumbent in the Camera for North/Central America is running again.

If you are interested, this are Grillo's candidates for North/Central America

House: Sandro Sessarego (researcger at University of Wisconsin), Eugenio Daviso (researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Michele Taverna (President and Chief Executive Officer, MonteCristo International LLC); Roberto Berritta (Director of Engineering for Brooks Stevens, Inc).

Senate:  Simone Lolli (researcher at NASA) Arturo Busca (director at DHL Express)

[Andrea]

Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

[Andrea]

In the past decade, Santoro's main achievement has probably been helping Berlusconi to gain votes :-(
At least he isn't giving him the excuse to act too much as a victim this time.
Silvio was on top of his form.

[Andrea]

PD, SEL and PSI will run joint lists in Italians Abroad constituencies.
In South America they are allied with AISA (Pallaro.. just go down the memory lane to 2006-08)

[Andrea]

Wasn't that assumed? I'm pretty sure both sides did that in 2008.

I suppose it was a given in FPTP constituencies. I didn't even consider PSI. I thought SEL could have run in Europe multi members constituencies (especially at the House).
As they put out a press release today to announce the joint list, I just posted it.

[Andrea]

Monti's parliamentary candidates at the House:

http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/01/11/news/liste_monti-50362340/

[Andrea]

I doubt fake lists (there also fake version of Monti lists and Civic Revolution) will get enough real signatures to run in the end.

[Andrea]

Ispo poll for Corriere regarding Lombardy senate race:

Berlusconi coalition 35.7 (PdL 19.5 Lega 13.9% La Destra 1.4)
Bersani 32.3% (PD 29.4 SEL 2.5)
Monti 14.7%
Grillo 10.8%
Ingroia 4.1%

Regional elections

Maroni 40.7%
Ambrosoli 37.9%
Albertini 10.6%
Carcano (M5S) 9.8%

[Andrea]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

[Andrea]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).

Yes, but after 2006, I want to be psychologically ready in case of another tie :-)

 

[Andrea]

IPR new polls for La7's show Piazza Pulita (aired last night)

Tecné for SKY News


Bersani 37.5
Berlusconi 26.3
Monti 14.8
Grillo 14.2
Ingroia 4.1

ISPO for Porta a Porta

Bersani 36.3
Berlusconi 29.2
Monti 15.5
Grillo 12.6
Ingroia 4.4

IPR for TG3

Bersani 36.5
Berlusconi 28.5
Monti 15
Grillo 12
Ingroia 4

IPR polls for Piazza Pulita (la7 political show)

Lombardy: Bersani 35.5 Berlusconi 35
Veneto: Berlusconi 41 Bersani 33
Campania: Bersani 35 Berlusconi 32
Sicily: Bersani 34 Berlusconi 33.5

[Andrea]

Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

[Andrea]

Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

Who is running against Alemanno?

They haven't picked up a candidate yet

[Andrea]

SWG showed just a 6% lead this morning
However, Tecné (SKY's pollster) continues to show its usual 11% lead.

PD have excluded 3 people from their lists (2 in Sicily and 1 in Campania). 2 others have stood down on their own. They are quite dubious characters with some trials in their CV.

Pannella makes an election alliance with Storace in Lazio. LOL.

[Andrea]

@Phil

PD lists for Italian Abroads

Europe House

1 Laura Garavini MP (Germany – Berlin)
2 Gianni Farina MP (Switerland – Pfaeffikon)
3 Franco Narducci MP (Switerland – Argovia)
4 Michela Baranelli (Germany – Gross Gerau)
5 Andrea Biondi (UK – London)
6 Francesco Cerasani (Belgium – Bruxelles)
7 Pino Maggio (Germany – Villingen)
8 Domenico Mesiano (Switerland – Sion)
9 Roberto Serra (Luxembourg – Luxembourg)
10 Emilia Barbara Sina (Switerland – Zurigo)

Europe Senate

1 Claudio Micheloni MP (Switzerland - Neuchatel)
2 Elio Carozza (Belgium – Bruxelles)
3 Cristina Rizzotti (Germany- Stoccarda)
4 Massimiliano Vellini (Spain – Valencia)

South America House

1 Fabio Porta MP (Brazil – San Paolo)
2 Antonella Pinto (Venezuela – Valencia)
3 Flavio Giannetti (Argentina – Rosario)
4 Claudia Antonini (Brazil – Porto Alegre)
5 Mauro Sabbadini (Argentina – Salta)
6 Monica Patricia Rizzo (Argentina- Mar del Plata)
7 Luis Melieni detto Gino Renni (Argentina – Buenos Aires)
8 Filomena Narducci (Uruguay – Montevideo)

South America Senate

1 Francisco Nardelli (Argentina – Bahia Blanca)
2 Francesco Rotundo (Argentina – Moron)
3 Renato Palermo (Uruguay – Montevideo)
4 Fausto Longo (Brazil – San Paolo)

North / Central America House

1 Gianluca Galletto (USA – New York)
2 Francesca La Marca (Canada – Toronto)
3 Giovanni Rapanà (Canada – Montreal)
4 Marco Piana (USA – Los Angeles)

North-Central America Senate

1 Renato Turano (USA – Chicago)
2 Rocco Di Trolio (Canada – Vancouver)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide House

1 Marco Fedi MP (Australia – Melbourne)
2 Giuliano Giacovazzi (Sud Africa – Cape Town)

Africa/Asia/Oceania/Antartide Senate

1 Francesco Giacobbe (Australia – Sidney)
2 Silvia Finzi (Tunisia – Tunisi)

It looks as they are 2 retirements: Randazzo in Australia and co and Gino Bucchino. Who is the favourite to take the PD seat in North America/House now?

SEL will run on its own in Europe at the House.

[Andrea]

I was out this afternoon and so I couldn't enjoy all the drama about PdL's Campania lists!

[Andrea]

As someone more interested in Campania and Sicily, tell me about this drama.

Campania lists was in the spotlight because of Cosentino. Let him stand or not?
At some point this afternoon a rumour spreads: Campania PdL lists (and all documents connected) were stolen! PdL spokepersons denied it saying Nitto Palma had them.
But it seems that at 6:30 PM candidates were in a Naples hotel re-signing everything. 8 PM is the deadline to present the lists.

[Andrea]

This party is creating a nice little history of screwing up petitions and lists right at the deadline, isn't it?  

The list has been presented in time in the end. But all the tittle tattle was farcical and entertaining.

[Andrea]

Yes, the general feeling (and media narrative) is that the race is getting tighter, Grillo is losing momentun, Monti's support a bit unclear (15+% or more close to 10%?), more media coverage about Ingroia than before.

Seconded : how good is this tracker ? It seems to be compiling a number of polls from various firms, but I don't if it can be trusted and to what extent.

Anyway, the today delivery is the following :

At the bottom of the table, they say it's an online survey sampling a voluntary panel of internet users taking into account sex, region, municipality's status (large, medium, little), employment, how many times they go to the mass.

[Andrea]

IPR

Lombardy: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 35% Monti 14.4%
Sicily: Bersani 35% Berlusconi 33% Monti 14%
Campania: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 32% Monti 12%
Puglia: Bersani 35.5% Berlusconi 31.5% Monti 17%

ISPO (Corriere)

Lombardy: Berlusconi 36.7 Bersani 34.5 Monti 14.9 Grillo 8.5 Ingroia 4.1
Veneto: Berlusconi 33.9 Bersani 30 Monti 17.4 Grillo 9.7 Ingroia 5.8
Campania: Bersani 32.5% Berlusconi 27.9% Monti 14.5% Grillo 12.4 Ingroia 8.3
Puglia : Bersani 33% Berlusconi 29.2% Monti 17% Grillo 12.9 Ingroia 5.6
Sicily: Berlusconi 29.6 Bersani 28.6 Grillo 18.3 Monti 16.6  Ingroia 4.9

National polls

EMG (La7 News): Bersani 37.1% Berlusconi 28% Monti 15.2% Grillo 12.8% Ingroia 4.6%
IPR: Bersani 36% Berlusconi 28.5% Monti 14.3% Grillo 13.38% Ingroia 4.3%
Tecné (SKY News): Bersani 35.8% Berlusconi 26.5% Monti 15.2% Grillo 14% Ingroia 4.8%
Piepoli: Bersani 39.5% Berlusconi 30.5% Monti 14.0% Grillo 10% Ingroia 4.0%

[Andrea]

I guess Nichi is to blame for the Puglia numbers.

I think the Puglia numbers are more or less in line with national swing.