NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

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Whether Ciattarelli wins or not, I think a lot of people were underestimating the quiet rage much of the state felt at Murphy's handling of Covid, especially business owners.

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You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

There have been no restrictions in NJ since May. No, the pandemic is not over but that's not Murphy's fault. If people are upset that they see hand sanitizer around and people wearing masks, then that's their own problem and the culture of this country needs a serious change.

I'm mostly talking about last year, actually - particularly one specific incident where Murphy threw his own road map out the window and called off the resumption of indoor dining indefinitely because he had a gut feeling it was too risky. It cost a lot of businesses money they had already invested into reopening, and the anger was deep. He's certainly improved since then, and the state seems to be doing well now, but speaking anecdotally there was absolutely a sense of betrayal during the later months of the initial crisis that hasn't dissipated.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Murphy will probably win, but it will be embarrassing if Youngkin wins by a larger margin than him.

Heres the good news for the Dem establishment tho: They still have 13 months to make excuses, find scapegoats, and avoid responsibility for the inevitable 2022 shellacking. I wonder what/who it will be this time? Ralph Nader? Russia? Muh media?

Just about every single "progressive" candidate and policy up tonight got blown out of the water, even in blue cities like Seattle, Minneapolis, and Buffalo.

Boston mayor-elect and Senator Warren acolyte: am I a joke to you?

I feel like Warren, Wu, Porter, and the like are simply on the left wing of mainstream Democrats, and pretty distinct from the likes of India Walton and especially the crazy person in Seattle.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

New Jersey being a complete mess? Well, I never.

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It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

Do you know the results in Lakewood?

I just looked it up, and it looks like Ciatarelli still won the district, my mistake - but by a much, much smaller margin than Trump did, and with much lower turnout. It seems like a lot of the district didn't want to vote for Murphy, but with the Rabbis endorsing him they just stayed home. That was a huge vote cache that Ciatarelli didn't get because of Murphy's support for the community.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455908762242461700

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https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Alright, that's pretty based.

Yeah, I'm sure Durr himself is not based, but Sw**ney losing to a Some Guy candidate who spent less money on his campaign than I've spent at some nice restaurants--not even Some Businessman, really truly Some Guy!--is based as hell.

Kind of concerning (on a macro level that doesn't really have a ton to do with this election in particular) that the Lakewood people didn't actually turn out for Murphy when their rabbis endorsed him, but it's still pretty neat that Murphy was saved partly by good old-fashioned constituent service for a community that, despite its many internal problems, is still pretty heavily and pretty unjustly discriminated against in much of the state.

It actually reminds me a little of the Never Trumpers - while it would be good if they voted for Biden, yes, them staying home also hurt him and was a victory in and of itself. The Murphy campaign is probably thrilled that they were at least able to neutralize the Lakewood vote for Ciatarelli.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I doubt Ciatarelli has a chance, but I also don't blame him for not conceding yet. He's not alleging a stolen election - he's just not conceding because not only aren't all the votes counted, no one can even agree on how many votes are left! NJ gonna NJ.