Who wins each runoff scenario in CA? (user search)
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  Who wins each runoff scenario in CA? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?
#1
Schiff/Porter: Schiff
 
#2
Schiff/Porter: Porter
 
#3
Schiff/Lee: Schiff
 
#4
Schiff/Lee: Lee
 
#5
Schiff/Butler: Schiff
 
#6
Schiff/Butler: Butler
 
#7
Porter/Lee: Porter
 
#8
Porter/Lee: Lee
 
#9
Porter/Butler: Porter
 
#10
Porter/Butler: Butler
 
#11
Lee/Butler: Lee
 
#12
Lee/Butler: Butler
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 35

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Who wins each runoff scenario in CA?  (Read 537 times)
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,030


« on: October 03, 2023, 08:14:49 AM »

Schiff/Butler is the only one that feels like a real wild card, but it's also a highly unlikely one.
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,030


« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2023, 01:55:53 PM »

If the is runoff is Schiff vs another Democrat, the second Democrat will win because the Republicans will vote for her to block Schiff.
If it's Butler vs Schiff, I'm not sure I can imagine Republicans voting en masse for someone who was very recently the head of a group dedicated to promoting abortion. Most of them probably wouldn't vote/would spoil their ballot.

This is entirely possible with Porter as well - she'll have to drive a distinction between her and Schiff, which means running to his left for the duration of the general campaign. I can't see her picking up too many Republican votes. I think the Republican vote is likely to drift away from Schiff, but it's also likely to be heavily depressed in any scenario because all four of these possible candidates are anathema to their base.
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