NC: PPP: Hagan up in close race

[Vern]

The fact that Hagan's poll numbers are being (probably artificially) held up by a third-party candidate despite Tillis' atrocious approval numbers is some pretty clear evidence of a GOP wave.  There is absolutely no other reason why Hagan shouldn't be running away with this against an unpopular Republican candidate in a generally purple state--especially when that candidate is the speaker of a super unpopular state house. 

And, yet, he may very well win by a couple of points.

North Carolina has a big base for both sides with few swing voters. This race doesn't prove a GOP wave.

[Vern]

So it really is narrowing.

This was excepted. This poll shows the base support for each candidate. Now the fight for the swing voters is about to start. Which I believe Hagan will win that fight in the end.

[Vern]

Hmmm. I checked the nitty gritty. Over sampled women and Democrats. No way in hell there are more Dems in NC.

Actually, there are way more registered Democratics in NC than Republicans. And women tend to have a higher turn-out rate than men.

[Vern]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.

[Vern]

Miles or someone else who knows NC well, what is Hagan's target for the white vote? Romney carried the state 51-48 while Obama won only 31% of the white vote, and Hagan is currently receiving 38% in this poll. Obviously, black turnout will likely be down (though who knows how much) and they may go for Hagan by a slightly smaller margin, but at the moment she's only getting 67% which seems extremely unlikely. I couldn't find 2010 exit polls to compare to.

The ads she is putting out is trying to paint herself as a moderate who is for the working class.

Tillis ads? What is the general feeling from people you have spoken to about the race?

I haven't seen to many Tillis ads. But many people don't like either candidate.