BPS Latino voters in AZ, CA, NV - Biden +20, +22, +15

[Vern]

Fair to say that Latino will shift to the right this coming election. The big question is, by how much.

[Vern]

My gut feeling (not backed up by any data) is that this is consistent with Biden winning AZ but losing NV.

Same here. This feels like saying Biden would win GA but not FL in 2020, which turned out to be the right call. Even if Biden or Trump win both NV and AZ, I suspect NV will be to the right of AZ.

NV always have an R bias users need to know that

NV, AZ and GA will vote for Trump.

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

I know Trump lost in 2020 and never have stated he did. But nice try. Also, lets make one thing clear, I am in no way a Trump fan. I just look at facts and the facts are pointing to Trump winning. And if you say different you have lost touch with reality.

[Vern]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

You can’t debate people who have lost touch with reality. And most people on Atlas have lost touch with reality. They are stuck in their bubble.

I'm one of the few people here who actually got the 2022 midterm election right and never bought into those predictions of Republicans winning 40+ seats in the House. You probably don't even think Trump lost in 2020 so who really is out of touch with reality?

I know Trump lost in 2020 and never have stated he did. But nice try. Also, lets make one thing clear, I am in no way a Trump fan. I just look at facts and the facts are pointing to Trump winning. And if you say different you have lost touch with reality.

Polls are not facts, they are random samples that don't always line up with the end result of an election and that has been more and more common over the years. The FACTS are that Republicans have massively underperformed in real races and your guy Trump was overestimated in primary polling and he posted some very underwhelming margins in suburban counties. The polls aren't lining up with reality. End of debate.

You do realize a lot of Democrats voted in these Republican primaries against Trump. And the facts I was talking about has nothing to do with polling. The facts I am talking about is how we are currently facing  high inflation, an housing market that is horrible. Wars everywhere in the world. How most American are struggling to make ends meet because of food prices and gas prices. How Biden is as unpopular as Carter was. And Biden is lucky that the Republicans were stupid enough to pick Trump again. Because against anyone else he would lose crazy bad. But because it’s Trump he still has a small chance due to all of Trumps craziness.