Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

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Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier.

On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago.

Purple for the Broad Front is the better (from what I remember a TV channel used that color here), also green could serve, but orange no.

Yes, Sanchez only won those three communes, that besides Rapa Nui, those aren't small wins. Valparaiso is one of the most famous cities in the country, and have a lot of issues like poverty, trash and cultural preservation. The mayor is from the Broad Front (Jorge Sharp) and he is pretty popular there, and from what I listened, he is doing a very good job. Puente Alto is a suburb of Santiago and is one of the most populous communes in the country (maybe the first or second), it's a mix of middle class population and some poor neighborhoods ridden by poverty and crime.
Rapa Nui is the Eastern island, and the voting pattern there seems a little bit clientelistic.

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La Tercera asked elected senators and deputies different questions about economic, moral and politic themes, and gives the results by coalition (they add the DC to New Majority). It's pretty interesting, these are the results:

Economic issues
1. Free college education: How would you vote?
Blue: Maintain current coverage (the poorer 50% of the population
Red: Expand
Black: End free education and relocate resources



2. Pension system: How would you vote (link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Chile )
Blue: Abolish the AFPs (private insurers)
Red: Reform the system without abolishing the AFPs



3. About the financing of the army:
Blue: In favor of abolishing the Reserved Law of Copper (10% of gross revenues of CODELCO, chilean largest state company, goes to the army)
Red: Against



4. Healthcare system:
Blue: Abolish the ISAPRES (private insurers) and implementate universal insurance.
Red: Against of abolishing the ISAPRES.

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Politics

1. Limiting reelection in congress.
Blue: Keep current system (unlimited reelection).
Red: Limit reelection







2. Constitutional Assembly
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







3. New constitution (are you in favor of a mechanism to elaborate a new constitution?)
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







4. Eastern Island: More or Less Autonomy?
Blue: More
Red: Less







5. Mandatory or voluntary vote?
Blue: Mandatory
Red: Voluntary







6. Maintain the current presidential system (without consecutive reelection)?
Blue: Keep the 4 years without reelection
Red: Change it.







7. Are you in favor of lowered the salaries of senators and deputies?
Blue: Lower it
Red: Against







8. Are you in favor of closing Punta Peuco (jail of human rights violators, has high standards and there's a lot of pressure to close it and send the convicts to regular jails)?
Blue: Close it
Red: Keep it







9. Are you in favor of reducing the minimum age of penal responsibility?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







10. Are the attacks in the Araucania considered terrorism (Mapuche conflict)?
Blue: Yes
Red: No







11. In favor of give to Bolivia sovereign access to the sea?
Blue: Yes
Red: No







12. Keep Congress in Valparaiso or change it to Santiago?
Blue: Valparaiso
Red: Santiago

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Moral Issues


1. Are you in favor that transgender children can change legally their genders?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







2. Legalization of weed
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







3. In favor of same-sex couples adopting?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







4. Same-sex Marriage
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







5. In favor of voluntary Euthanasia for terminal patients?
Blue: In favor
Red: Against







6. Abortion: Expand the three causal? (I posted about it a few months ago)
Blue: Expan them
Red: Against expand them (could be keep them or abolish them)







7. Limit Rodeo? (chilean sport, very cruel against cows)
Blue: Limit it
Red: Don't limit

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What are the various characteristics/ideologies of the parties in the Broad Front?

I'm liking the looks of this. A friend of mine who's very high up in DSA is visiting Chile this December. Seems like a good time to meet up with some socialists!

I have many friends from college who are Democratic Revolution's militants (largest party of the Broad Front), and if you or your friend want to I could arrange a meeting or something like that with Rodrigo Echecopar, RD's president (could also with Giorgio Jackson, but honestly, that could be much harder).

Seriously, I could happily do it.

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Beautiful maps!


Yesterday Beatriz Sanchez endorsed Guillier, after Piñera claimed about voting fraud (showing his lack of respect for our democracy).

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These last weeks has been rough for me (too much work+studying for GMAT) but this is election day so I am gonna give me a break.

Results from New Zealand:

Guillier 89 (76%)
Piñera 28 (24%)

Invalid 4



First round:
Sánchez: 51
Guillier: 34
Piñera: 24
Kast: 13
Goic: 6
ME-O: 5
Artés: 4
Navarro: 0

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Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.

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Australia:

Guillier: 818 (65%)
Piñera: 444 (35%)


Invalid: 25

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Plus some updates from last week:

Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that.

Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica.

I expected he was done after underperforming his polls by so much. Sounds like he's just not a very exciting guy and may lose by a pretty large margin. Macri must feel pretty alone as far as South American center right presidents go.

idk, I don't think that Piñera is an unexciting politician, he seems the only right-of-center politician capable of winning more than 50% of the chilean electorate, I really don't see any other politician capable of that. Guillier is the opposite, his campaign has lacked of anything exciting.

The problem I think is that the right overplayed their cards in this election, they are (also their electorate) desperate to defeat the government and stop the reforms and they though that the unpopularity of the Bachelet meant that the people supported that program, but actually the people who rejected the reforms as a whole was just a fraction (and seems not a big one) and the people got scared with the right being more vocal about their intentions.

And yes, Macri must feels alone, specially with PPK's  corruption scandal in Peru (interesting that it isn't a thread about this, because impeachment and new elections seems likely).

Link about Peru: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/world/americas/peru-president-odebrecht.html?_r=0

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Voted an hour ago, very fast compared to the first round (but then I also voted for CORE and deputy).

There's a lot of uncertainty about the results, no one knows who is favorite to win, but this is turnout, if turnout is high, Guillier is likely to win. My (bold?) predicition is the following:

Guillier 52.15%
Piñera 47.85%

You see the right very confident to win (from my job, from my friends, etc.) but I think that hides the thing that they are very nervous about this and are very vocal (that's why I'm thinking there's a shy Guillier vote, is not that easy to say that you are going to vote for Guillier in some places).

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China
Piñera: 101 (73%)
Guillier: 37 (27%)


Vote from abroad consolidated
Guillier: NZ, Aus, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Korea (empate)
Piñera: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philipines, UAE, India, Egypt, South Africa, Jordania, Korea (empate)
Piñera 40.6% (712 votos)
Guillier 59,4% (1040 votos)

Source: https://twitter.com/wuinters/status/942433840412446720

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What time (ET) the polls close?

4 PM ET (6 pm in Chile) polls start to close, first results will come 30 minutes later.

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Results from Europe


Paris 1
Guillier 118
Piñera 15

Paris 3
Guillier 164
Piñera 24

Stockholm 3
Guillier 168
Piñera 9

Barcelona 1
Guillier 103
Piñera 28

Barcelona 3
Guillier 92
Piñera 34

Barcelona 6
Guillier 43
Piñera 22

Madrid 3
Guillier 122
Piñera 116

Madrid 4
Guillier 83
Piñera 77

Madrid 2
Guillier 75
Piñera 102

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Why is Piñera so unpopular abroad?

He is going to improve in America (USA, Canada, Peru, etc.) but the european vote is specially left-wing, because many exiled people by Pinochet regime were received in Europe (France, Sweden, etc.) and although some returned many stayed there, and they are particularly left-wing, also there's some autoselection with respect to postgraduates. If you want to do a master/Ph.D abroad, if you choose USA  there's a higher probability of being to the right, and if you choose Europe you have a higher probability  to be on the left. This is obviously an oversimplification, but there's some pattern there.

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I'm going to be contrary to the other views expressed here and say Piñera pulls it out. Thanks to the divisions in the left during the first round, not enough BF voters will qant to turn up and vote NM.

You could be totally right, the division in the chilean left is something to consider, but I don't think the two groups (and their electorates) are too divisive between them (we are divided, but not like France or Germany). We will se today, but there's no reason to see what you said. Today we will see the how BF voters react to Guillier and Piñera.

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Vote from Abroad until now
Oceania🇳🇿🇦🇺
Asia🇯🇵🇸🇬🇰🇷🇨🇳🇲🇾🇵🇭🇹🇭🇮🇩
Africa🇿🇦
Middle East🇮🇱🇦🇪
Europe🇷🇺🇫🇷🇪🇸🇨🇭🇵🇱🇳🇱🇸🇪🇬🇧*🇮🇹

Piñera 30.7% (2,209)
Guillier: 69.3% (4,987)


https://twitter.com/Ob_electoralUDP/status/942477501753896960

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In my experience Chileans in Canada tend to be very leftwing

Well I checked the results from Canada and Piñera got crushed in the first round (16%), I don't know why I though it could be more to the right. The US to the contrary Piñera achieved 49%.

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Honestly I'm starting to think that Piñera will win. Turnout seems significantly lower than the first round (but higher in the upper class communes), the right is very motivated and apparently the Broad Front electorate (not the majority but a significant part) didn't bother to vote this time.

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Polls now start to close, you can check official results here:

http://www.servelelecciones.cl

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Nope we don't have

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Live counting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDa9paUzSpM



International vote is now up

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That link is behind the main page - here:

http://www.tvn.cl/

I love how I understand just basic Spanish, yet I can still that the YouTube live comments on that video are Trash

Chilean trolls hahahaha

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This is painful to watch, specially Piñera doing good in popular communes.

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New Majority RIP 2013-2017