Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%)

[seb_pard]

I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, in which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him?


I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him).

[seb_pard]

Pseudo-poll

I'm going to do a summary of the support of my friends and relative.

-My dad is not going to vote, he was undecided between Sanchez and Guillier but in the last week he got disappointed and liked Guillier's program so he is on the Guillier train now.
-My mom, sister and I are going to vote for Mayol. My mom always liked Mayol and she wasn't enthusiastic on Sanchez's candidacy.
-I have 3 other brothers, I really don't know about them, but I don't think they are going to vote.
-My girlfriend is going to vote for Ossandon.
-My best friend and her girlfriend are going to vote for Ossandon too.
-Most of my friends from work and friends from college (my career) and high school are going to vote for Kast, although from what I heard at my job, some are scared by Ossandon's chances and are planning to vote for Piñera.
-One friend from my school is going to vote for Mayol.
-Most of my friends from college (not my career) are going to vote for Sanchez, but most of them are part of Revolución Democratica (former members of NAU, the pre-RD) and even one is pre-candidate for deputy for my district.

Update:
-My dad at the end voted for Mayol, he has very disgusted with Sanchez's comments about Allende (me too) and he wanted to vote haha. He is now full on Guillier.
-One brother voted for Sanchez, the other didn't go .
-Mi girlfriend and my best friend didn't vote. They support Guillier anyway.

[seb_pard]

I think Frente Amplio has a very big problem that could not only damage them but the chilean left: the Communist party is not part of it. The PC here is not a fringe party, it's almost a subculture that is very respected across a sizable part of the chilean left (but not by the right, they don't like at all them). They lead union, they are the largest party, they have many students federations, and they are very tactic about the political game. They don't like to act extreme, and although very rigid in nature, they are very willing to compromise.

For the Frente Amplio to go without the Communist party is to go without a vital part, it seems incomplete, it seems akward, it doesn't feel natural. But also is a problem that the Communist party is at the Nueva Mayoria. Almost nobody likes NM (they don't do too much to avoid this) and some parts of it are really disgusting (PPD I see you).

I don't think that so many people here feel this is an issue, but I really think so.

[seb_pard]

Funny story, my sister was in the line waiting to cast the vote (in the Verbo Divino School) and she heard an old lady saying to another: "voy a poner que se vayan a la chucha todos los weones" haha, this doesn't have a direct translation and only a Chilean could understand

[seb_pard]

A few pages ago I talked about Chile Vamos' parties, now I resume the summary of chilean parties with the Christian Democrats:

Partido Democrata Cristiano



One of the most important parties since the second half of century, although today is in a bad shape. The party is the successor of the Falange Nacional (National Falange), which was founded in 1935 by young militants of the Conservative Party unhappy with the party leadership. They wanted a more serious compromise with the catholic social teaching that they felt they CP didn’t have. They felt that the battle against communism would be lost without a strong compromise for social justice, and they promoted cooperatives and Agrarian reforms. A strong influence was the french Jacques Maritain.

In 1957 they merged with other minor parties and founded the Christian Democratic Party. In the presidential election of 1958, they were represented by their leader Eduardo Frei Montalva, and although lost, he obtained 20.75% of the vote, much better than expected.

Eduardo Frei ran again in 1964 and obtained 56.09% of the vote, with a strong support from a right afraid of an Allende’s victory. Julio Duran, the candidate of the right, received only 4.98% of the vote.


Eduardo Frei Montalva


Frei’s presidency was characterized by the number of reforms made, they accelerated the Agrarian reform started by Alessandri, promoted the civic participation and started the Chilenization of copper. For the 1970 election, the candidate of the party was Radomiro Tomic, a representative of the progressive wing. Tomic received 28.08% and the party supported Allende (in the old Chilean electoral system if a candidate obtained less than 50%, the congress would vote). It should be added that some parts of the party’s youth left the party and founded the MAPU (Popular Unitary Action Movement) and the Christian Left (both supported Allende).

The 70’s was a period of strong polarization in Chile, and DC wasn’t an exception. Most of the leadership was strongly opposed to Allende, but some (leaded by Tomic) were more inclined to an understanding to the government. For the 1973 parliamentary election, the DC ran in an unitary list with the rest of the opposition with the objective of winning enough seats to impeach Allende. And although the won, the lost seats against the Unidad Popular (Allende’s coalition) and couldn’t impeach Allende, but they opposition started a process of boicot against the government and promoted a coup which materialized in September 11th. Most of the party’s leadership supported the coup, with a notable exception which was reflected in a letter written by 13 party leaders (the “grupo de los 13”) in which they condemned the coup.   

The leaders of the party were actually confident that the military  would give them the power after a few days or months, something that didn’t happen. Shortly after months, the party was fully opposed against Pinochet and many members were imprisoned, exiled or forcedly moved to small towns.

In the 80’s the party founded with most of the opposition the Concertación. With the return of democracy, the party leaded the transition, mostly because the military wouldn’t have allowed other parties such the socialists.

During the 90’s the party maintained the leadership of the Concertación (thanks in part to having the president) but after Andres Zaldivar lost the primary against Ricardo Lagos (from the PPD) the country has lost substantial support.

I think the decline of the party started in the 70’s but during Pinochet’s dictatorship this process stalled and reversed in the 90’s an accelerated after that. This is due to many reasons: the party lacks of a concrete ideology, they are pretty big tent, they like to be moderate hero (or amarillos as we called here in Chile) the leadership is too focus in having power than changing the country (contrary to the party’s perception in the 60’s) and all the politics they do is to maintain power. They are seen now as a party obsessed to be in power and they themselves view as a representative of a third of the electorate, a third that no longer exist. The base supposed they represent no longer exist, and when you see the people who is supposed to be their base no longer like them. It’s a process similar to what happened to the Radical Party in before the coup.

Currently the party has 8 senators and 22 deputies and they are stronger in the countryside.

[seb_pard]

DC is in middle of a political crisis. Last saturday was the party's Junta Nacional (National Conference?)  where they voted for the political candidates. The thing is that they had two choices: To approve the whole parliamentary list or vote by district. Goic supported the latter because Ricardo Rincon (current deputy, now candidate for Senate) was in the preliminary list. It was discovered that Rincon was found guilty of domestic abuse in 2002 (his partner had physical injuries). Currently gender-based violence is one of the most important issues discused in the country and our society is increasingly (fortunately) less tolerant to these cases, and there was a strong campaign (leaded by Goic) to avoid a Rincon candidacy. Well, the preliminary list was approved.


Goic said that now she is evaluating her candidacy and she will announce her decision in the following days. The image of the party is in the floor, it is really sad to see (although they deserve it).

[seb_pard]

Well, Goic announced today that she is going to resume the campaign and she will use her attribution as party leader (given by the chilean electoral service) to prevent a Rincon candidacy.

[seb_pard]

It amazes me that someone like Eduardo Artes achieved the necessary signatures to become a presidential candidate. That shows the fragmentation in the chilean left, it reminds me of France.

[seb_pard]

Some updates from the south:

-Abortion: Finally Abortion is legal again in Chile. El Constitutional Court denied the protests from the opposition so now we no longer have one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world. Abortion is now legal in the following cases:
            1. When the woman's life is in danger.
            2. When the fetus is not viable.
            3. In the case of rape.

These are babies steps but overall is very good news if you see the law we had. Abortion was legal since 1931 for medical reasons but Pinochet banned in 1989.



-Migration: The government sent today a new abortion law proposal to be discussed and voted in congress. A migration reform is needed because the current law (created by Pinochet in 1974) has become a serious problem with the current immigration rate. Some migration NGOs and communities has criticized the the government's hermetic attitude with respect to this law (a problem I think Bachelet has).

Immigration to Chile has increased in the last years, particularly from Haiti, Venezuela, Colombia and Dominican Republic. This is a new thing in Chile (in the last decade migration was mainly from Peru and Bolivia, two neighbors) but I think the country has reacted very well, but the current law is unsustainable with the current rate of migration (restrictive and bureaucratic).



-Frente Amplio: The Frente Amplio embarrassed themselves last week. Alberto Mayol (former presidential candidate) said through to the press a few weeks ago that he wanted to run as a deputy candidate in the 10th District (Giorgio Jackson's district and the strongest Frente Amplio district). He wanted to run in Democratic Revolution ticket but they offered the Equality Party district. And then all went dark. According to Natalia Castillo (other RD candidate in 10th district) Mayol asked to withdraw her candidacy for him. Obviously she rejected that (although Mayol denied doing this).

Then all went dark. In the FA was uncomfortable with the way Mayol acted (they had all ready) but he pushed through the press (he is an expert in communications) and this was seen as the FA was doing everything to protect Jackson and screw Mayol. Last week FA decided to forbid Mayol to run as FA candidate because he sent some whatsapp audios to Jackson and Castillo. The FA board accused him of gender violence (a big mistake, because he was nasty, but against the two). Then came all the press and political parties attacking the FA for doing this. Finally they offer again the Equality Party spot and he accepted.

All this damaged the FA a lot. Honestly I think Mayol was nasty, he showed his real clothes but the coalition show how poorly prepared they are. They are used to college politics and doesn't have any frustration tolerance. The same old left...

[seb_pard]

I honestly think this was a good thing for Bachelet. Valdes was a liability for the government, no one was happy with him (I can't stand him) and he was ideologically against with the policies of the government.

The reason of the resignation was due to the rejection of a mining project called Dominga (they were in favor, Bachelet and the rest were against). I think the right think was to reject the project, All the news talked about to be in favor of economic growth, give certainty to the private sector but no one talk about if this project complied with the legislation, and besides that, there is a corruption scandal associated with the permissions granted with this project.

I am in favor of economic growth (it's important), but I am against in eliminating laws and lowering taxes to increase short term growth thus sacrificing long term growth.

Besides all mentioned, Nicolas Eyzaguirre (former Treasury minister of Lagos and one of my favorite chilean politicians) return to the economic team .

In the short term this is bad for Bachelet, in the long term is very good.

[seb_pard]

A picture of Nicolas Eyzaguirre from an interview for the left-wing magazine The Clinic. I love this picture.

[seb_pard]

A gift to forum members, this is a speech by Pedro Aguirre Cerda, chilean president between 1938 and 1941 (he died in office) who is considered by many as one of the greatest presidents of our history. It's only two minutes and although is in spanish, has subtitles (but in spanish haha). This is a great piece of chilean history. I'm gonna try to translate the speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfUvTP-frY

His article on wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Aguirre_Cerda

[seb_pard]

My translation of the speech:

To governs is to educate, and with this strong concept I will take advantage of all the strength the state can have to awake the constructive spirit of organization and perseverance that the national collective so badly needs, and I will rectify the neglected state of the public education that has left us a high percentage of illiterates in an age that the adult intervenes in unions, associations and other multiple activities that require culture and patriotic understanding.

The producer must be protected, but as such it is not understandable the one that puts the capital on interest to remain personally inactive, or the one who speculates with ignorance and misery.

It is a duty to work based on the sacred contribution that every individual aware of his/her duties must give to the community in a direct and personal way. And we will seek to give exclusive benefits to all elements of the society that give their tribute to their homeland, either a humble worker or the highest researcher or scientist.

Working is indispensable to the physical, moral and intellectual health of the citizen and we will ask you to establish the right to work as a corollary of the duty to work.  In this I deliberately include women, who will not have maternal obligations to fulfill. Women must be incorporated actively into the national life, and enjoy all the civil and political rights the men have.

[seb_pard]

Vote intention by socio-economic class




Blue: Upper class
Light green: Middle class
Dark green: Lower class

[seb_pard]

I'm very depressed with this election, and still undecided about my choice for tomorrow (probably Guillier). I think the odds of Piñera getting over 50% in the first-round are near 0, I really can't see (despite that he will win the runoff).

Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are:

-President: Leaning Guillier
-Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! . My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here.
-CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him.

The first result are coming in like 10 hours, from Australia and New Zealand, so probably before the opening of polls here we are going to see some results.

The map of the vote from abroad:

[seb_pard]

3 chilean schools did a mock election this week. The results are the following:



The background of the communes (all from Santiago):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peñalolén
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bernardo,_Chile
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puente_Alto

[seb_pard]

267,116 non-chileans are eligible to vote tomorrow, 11.9% higher than last year (2016 municipal election). That's aprox 1.9% of the electoral universe. Peruvians represent 42% of the total.

The requisites to vote for non-chileans are:
1) Over 18 at election day.
2) Not have been convicted of an afflictive penalty.
3) Have lived in Chile for more than 5 years.


(This doesn't consider naturalized chileans)

[seb_pard]

People waiting to vote in Sydney:







A reminder, in the primaries (the first election in which people abroad were eligible to vote) in New Zealand (Wellington) the results were the following:

Chile Vamos
Piñera: 10 votes (35.7%)
Kast: 11 (39.3%)
Ossandon: 7 (25%)

Frente Amplio
Sanchez: 10 (58.8%)
Mayol: 7 (41.2%)

In the case of Australia (Canberra+Melbourne+Sydney+Perth):

Chile Vamos
Piñera: 110 (45.5%)
Kast: 77 (31.8%)
Ossandon: 55 (22.75%)

Frente Amplio
Sanchez: 83 (61.9%)
Mayol: 51 (38.1%)

A few hours ago the consul in Wellington said that more than 100 people casted their votes, so we can expect a good turnout from abroad, which I don't think it would be the same here, but could help with the projection.

I think from Oceania we could expect a strong result from Piñera (maybe 50% of the vote?), meanwhile Sanchez and Guillier would fight for second place, the rest of the candidates will display very poor results I believe. That's a guess, because I have no idea, but it would be interesting.

[seb_pard]

It will be quite an exciting day! Here's hoping for a strong victory for the center-right, although everything depends on turnout.

Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are:

-President: Leaning Guillier
-Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! . My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here.
-CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him.

Interesting, seb_pard, from what you've said so far Atria makes perfect sense but I was a bit surprised you're leaning Guillier, I would have been certain you'd go for Sanchez.

As for myself I've decided not to go for Piñera in the first round and vote Kast instead, I rather like his economic agenda and his intentions to cut down on the size of government, even if strongly oppose his stances on social issues. I'll probably vote for RN candidates for Senate, Deputy and CORE as well.

I have issues with the way the have developed her campaign (she is a very bad campaigner), I still have issues with Guillier but in a way I think he is more concrete in ways Sanchez isn't. I'm still thinking btw hahaha.

[seb_pard]

First results from New Zealand

141 people voted and the results were (of valid votes):

Carolina Goic: 6 votes (4.4%)
Jose Antonio Kast: 13 (9.5%)
Sebastian Piñera: 24 (17.5%)
Alejandro Guillier: 34 (24.8%)
Beatriz Sanchez: 51 (37.2%)
Marco Enriquez-Ominami: 5 (3.6%)
Eduardo Artes: 4 (2.9%)
Alejandro Navaro: 0 (0.0%)


Based on these results I would say: Stop the election and let's go to the second run based on these results!!!

[seb_pard]

Results from China

[seb_pard]

Contrary to expectations, participation seems high, so probably we are going to see a higher turnout than expected. We are watching on TV polling stations with long lines both in rich and poor communes. That's good news.

I voted like an hour ago, waited 10 minutes to cast my vote, a lot of candidates for deputy (my district chooses 6) and CORE (my district chooses 4).


In a few hours we are going to receive the results from Europe, expect excellent results for Sanchez and Guillier and bad for Piñera.

[seb_pard]

Off course, this is the link to the livestream of two chilean channels (TVN and Canal 13):

http://www.tvn.cl
http://www.t13.cl/en-vivo

If it is blocked from abroad just tell me and I'm going to check if there's another link.

Also Cooperativa (very good political radio station) it's recording a live stream from facebook, if you know spanish it's worth the listening:

https://www.facebook.com/Cooperativa/videos/10155200932205895/?notif_id=1511107377086075&notif_t=live_video

I'm going to check if there's anything good in english

[seb_pard]

Results from Israel:
Piñera: 42
Guillier: 10
Sanchez 9
Kast: 6
Goic: 4
Enriquez-Ominami: 2
Invalid: 2


Moscow:

[seb_pard]

Oslo:

Guillier: 42
Sanchez: 34
Piñera: 11
Goeic: 7
Enriquez-Ominami: 5
Artés: 1
Navarro: 0
Kast: 0
Invalid: 1

Total: 101