FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 31, 2024, 08:01:52 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-OH: LA Times Poll - Obama up  (Read 1186 times)
kevinatcausa
Rookie
**
Posts: 196
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.04

« on: October 28, 2008, 06:25:10 PM »

I have to trust Nate Silver not to weight these polls high.  However, considering how high he weighted the Big Ten polls, I can't predict.

538 shouldn't (and doesn't) weight polls based on how reasonable they look, or based on whether or not a pollster seems to be coming out with garbage results.  Selecting your own outliers and giving them a lower weight them is a recipe for confirmation bias. 

He does give them a lower weight than most polls (and in fact a lower weight the Big Ten polls, which were given the weight of a completely unknown pollster coming out with their first polls), but he doesn't discount them entirely. 

Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 14 queries.