Obama up 7 against Romney in Ohio

[colincb]

I'm not surprised. Romney is not a midwestern candidate. That said, if the economy doesn't get worse, the GOP isn't winning regardless of who they nominate just like the GOP wasn't winning in 2008 regardless of who they nominated. McCain would've won the election had the economy not collapsed in September.

I'd have to disagree.  McCain led for as long as his post-convention bounce lasted.  The Dems led most of the time until then and thereafter because off an economy that was declining for almost two years before the markets crashed and because Bush was by and large judged a failure.  McCain didn't help himself with his grandstanding during the crash and Palin was a high risk choice that didn't pan out.  IMO, if Hilary Clinton had been the nominee, she would have won by an even larger margin because race appears to have played a part in paring Obama's victory margin.

[colincb]

Parties have changed their stripes before.  However, the GOP faces a demographic problem particularly with Hispanic voters that the GOP has managed to exacerbate despite Hispanics being socially conservative.  I don't see that changing in the near future. 

Any illegal immigration solution that allows a path to citizenship creates more Democratic voters proportionally.  Any illegal immigration solution that does not allow a path to citizenship creates additional legal Hispanic resistance to the GOP which combined with the Hispanics' higher birth rate damns the GOP either way. 

That leaves the GOP relegated toward voter suppression efforts which will likely to be self-defeating in the long run by creating more resentment especially if those efforts work in the short run.