Possibly. This election is going to be closer than many people think, but I don't see Obama losing NC in such scenario.
I've been hearing people constantly say that this election will be very close, which is certainly possible. But here's my issue with that: Since 1916, only two patterns have existed with incumbent presidents running for reelection. They either win a second term by a larger popular and electoral vote margin, or they lose big against their challenger. It seems to be a pretty consistent pattern over the past century, which leads me to believe that one or the other will happen this year. Obama wins big or he loses big.
2004 is the elephant in the room. Bush won by the skin of his teeth. I think this will be a 2004-style election.
