Florida is way more favorable to Romney than Virginia is. Romney needs to lock in Florida and North Carolina early (he's doing an okay job of it at the moment). The heavy lifting will be in Ohio and Virginia. I also think he can pull it off. But again, it's the one extra state that will really get Romney. I don't know where he gets those EVs.
Personally, I think it's going to be NH, if any. Maybe WI, but it has been polling for Obama fairly consistently and I think the inflated numbers for Romney are just due to the recall messing things up. Although, if they're not, we could see a Romney win like this:
Romney 276, Obama 262