Niles Caulder
Jr. Member
Posts: 638
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« on: February 18, 2006, 02:58:51 PM » |
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I tend to disagree with the magnitude of the problem for the GOP suggested by this article. The Medicare program has had a seriously clumbsy start, to be sure. But voters are well aware that something is better than nothing...and that it was the Bush Administration that got that something accomplished--the greatest accomplishment being backing from the AARP.
Bush's desired privitization of Social Security is nothing new---it was on his agenda from his first presidential election. If this was a detterent of significance...it would have been so before now. But Bush has done an effective job of convincing them that any reforms will only apply to the younger generations of the workforce.
The gender gap between current values in the American electorate place the elderly noticably (if tepidly) inside the GOP column. They're not the type to get riled over what 'the kids' are gnashing their teeth about: Iraq, domestic spying, etc.
I do think there will be a slight calming with regard to social issues such as gay marriage and the like--and that calming may help get some trickle of gray-haired voters back to the Democrats. But I just don't think it'll be a dynamic shift. Even given the things about the Republican agenda they don't like...they're overridingly 'patriotic' in their priorities--helping the GOP enormously.
They also know that the Bush Administration is so low on helium that its balloon is pretty harmless to effect unfavorable change. As for congressional elections--they're liable to remain utterly unimpressed with Democratic capacity for leadership.
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