State polls by age

[SingingAnalyst]

Are state polls by age reasonably accurate? I've seen maps on this forum of, say, 18-29 voters only or 65+ voters only.

Are they accurate? I would think the subsample sizes would be on the small side. Are there really significant state-to-state variations in the age gradient of vote breakdowns?

[SingingAnalyst]

Very interesting point, about the age gradient being stronger in states that trended D.

I can see how, for example, WV in 2016, would have little or no difference in age groups-- and other states, like AZ, CA, and FL, would have a huge difference.

I am willing to bet that was not always the case. Georgia, for example, went from being Kennedy's 2nd best state in 1960 to Nixon's 2nd best state in 1972. Clearly, it trended R. But I have a hard time believing that Georgians under 30 were less likely to vote for the candidate of "acid, amnesty, and abortion" than older Georgians in 1972 (a year in which voters under 30 nationwide were far more likely to vote Dem than those 30 or older). Thus, then R trend in Georgia between those two years, if one only includes those of voting age in 1960, was probably even stronger than the raw numbers indicate.

[SingingAnalyst]

Do we know if the age brackets in exit polls are properly weighted by race? (so each age bracket has the correct racial composition). If they aren't then that can produce some weird results, just because an age cohort is more or less White than it is supposed to be.

Florida's 2016 exit poll (particularly when looking at voters under 50) seems like a good example to suggest that age brackets aren't properly weighted by race, do these numbers make any sense at all otherwise?

18-24: Clinton leads 63-27
25-29: Trump leads 49-43
30-39: Clinton leads 56-38
40-49: Trump leads 50-46
50-64: Trump leads 55-43
65+: Trump leads 57-40

I am almost certain they are not race-weighted.

Fortunately, CNN, in its national sample, broke the white vote down by age. They found relatively little difference in support for Clinton by age, to wit:
18-29: 42D/48R
30-49: 37D/56R
50-64: 34D/63R
65+: 39D/59R

That might be hard to do accurately at the state level, though, except in large states like FL.

[SingingAnalyst]

I wonder how Oregon would be

Not sure; I didn't find any age polls for OR.

I do find OR quite interesting politically, how Trump finished in the teens in Multnomah County while Clinton finished in the teens in tiny Lake County; how Trump actually carried Oregon excluding Multnomah by a few thousand votes.

OR was ahead of the curve, perhaps the most environmentally conscious state in the 1970s; throwaway bottles have been banned in OR since 1972. In each election from 1972 through 1988, while Dems were "wandering in the wilderness" at the Presidential level everywhere else, OR was one of the most Dem (and least Republican) states in the West at this level, always giving strong support to minor parties (as is the case today).

For this reason, I'm going to guess that Oregonians aged 50-64 are much more Democratic, relatively speaking, than residents of other states in this age group.

I'm sure you know a lot more about Oregon than I do....