Out on a limb

[jravnsbo]

hadn't heard about Greens in Alaska, tell more please, got a link?

[jravnsbo]

Pretty solid, margins are always hard to pick, but I KNOW we will win NC, SC< GA, FL I think so and LA- wait until Dems pick their candidate.

LOse IL close and hodl the rest.

Yes we want Thune to run, and we willg vie Daschle all he can handle.

House, you missed- I'd say 238 for GOP.

President Bush gets reelected gaining in the uppermidwest.

In honor of the new year (whatever the new year has to do with anything) I'm going to make some detailed predictions about the upcoming election:

President--
Bush beats Howard Dean with 56% of the popular vote to Dean's 42% with the other 2 percent going to various third party candidates.  Bush carries every state he did in 2000 plus NM, Iowa, Wisonsin, Minnesota, Maine, Washington, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Senate--
Due to higher republican turnout for Bush, republicans pick up every open democratic senate seat in the South.  Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Louisiana will all be republican pick ups.  Republicans will win every race by at least 5 points.

Republicans will lose the seat in Illinois (52-48 dem).

Republicans will narrowly defend the Alaska seat (I give it to Murkowski by a three point margin).

Republicans will not have much trouble keeping the Oklahoma senate seat (55-45 republican).

Republicans pull off a major upset voctory in South Dakota unseating Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle by a 5 point margin.  Analysts everywhere will be shocked by the extent of Thune's victory.

Democrats successfully defend Boxer's seat in California, but republicans will come closer than most people will have thought to unseating her (51-48 in favor of Boxer).

Republicans pull off the trifecta here in Washington.  Bush wins at the top of the ticket and carries Rossi (governor) and Nethercutt (senate) with him by slim margins.

Some of these are fairly realistic and others are, well....

In any event, I expect republican will have pushed their senate total up to at least 55 by the time the night is through.

What are your predictions?

[jravnsbo]

Too late, Thune is running, I have it on good sources and he will announce tonight.

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

[jravnsbo]

I'd say it is a toss up,  He voted for cloture but didn't lift a finger as minority leader to get the voteds to close it on the energy bill which has a lot of provisions friendly to SD>

He got hammered int eh press on this.

Headline was, "Does Daschle really have clout?"

Daschle will win fairly norrowly.  I don't see an upset happening there.

[jravnsbo]

Plus Thune is very popular and a llot of people felt sorry for how he was treated in last election.

Should be interesting with Bush at the top of the ticket and maybe Dean on the other side.

I don't see him losing either, but I still think it will be tight; the way some Republicans have branded Daschle "unpatriotic" (unfairly IMHO) because of his views on Iraq could work against him. The political environment has changed a lot since Daschle's last victory in SD and his brand of politician isn't the most popular right now.

[jravnsbo]

You'll give 5% and take Daschle?  If so DEAL, name how much you want to lose.

How much do you want to bet that Dashle will lose?  I'll give you a 5% on Thune as the dog.

[jravnsbo]

yes and you said 5% also.  

I'm taking Daschle.  You're taking thune since you think he will beat Daschle.

[jravnsbo]

DEAL.

Safest seat-Bennet in Utah.

I would give 5% since Thune would be the underdog.

Which do you see as the safest senate seat coming up in 2004?  Schumer in NY?

[jravnsbo]

He will do well..   I wish Jerry ( I would have loved to have been the face fo the Democrat party) Springer would have run

What about Voionich... Vonivoinch...er... the GOP senator from Ohio? He was on over 60% last poll I saw.

[jravnsbo]

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

Assuming Dean gets the nomination, I see a likely (though NOT AT ALL certain) victory for Bush.

I won't say if I think it'll be a close election or a landslide for Bush; all that depends on Iraq and the economy by Nov. '04.  If both of those go down for Bush (they're looking up right now), it could really hurt him.

I actually think Dean would do better against Bush than some of the other frontrunners like Clark and Gephardt.  I think Bush wins all the states he carried in 2000 except possibly Ohio and New Hampshire.  I believe Bush will gain Oregon, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and POSSIBLY Wisconsin, Michigan, and even California.  Yes, I said California.

For the Senate, I think the GOP has about an 85-90% chance of winning in my state of GA.  I think Republicans will most likely win in every other southern state, except Florida and/or Louisiana, where the races will be too close to call, I predict.

In South Dakota, I really do believe Daschle could get kicked out by Thune.  Voter fraud messed Thune up last time; had the Dems not pulled that stunt, Thune would be in the senate right now.  I think the voter fraud of the 2002 election being public knowledge, S.D. being a pretty conservative Republican state, and the fact that Daschle attacked Bush on the eve of war may be just enough to get Thune in and Daschle out.

The governor races don't seem too much of a concern.  There aren't really that many critical seats open this cycle anyhow.

As far as the House goes....Man, does anybody actually see a situation where the House goes Dem?  Be honest now.

[jravnsbo]

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

House stays GOP with Texas ruling today.

Gov Holden is toast in MO.

We are already preparig comparisons of Daschle and what he says and votes in DC pieces for the paper.  ( me and some friends) to hit every little paper in editorials and letters to the editor.  Just showing them the facts.  Quote of what he said and how he voted and statements he said in DC.


When is filing deadline for Senate seat as Dems in GA still only have a weak state senator?

The filing deadline for Ga is, I think, sometime in late April.  Don't know an exact date though.  So far, there are NO major Dems running, which is a big problem for them.  All potential candidates that stood a chance have declined to run.

On the Rep side, Johnny Isakson looks to be the frontrunner, with Mac Collins coming in at second.  I'm a Collins support myself, he's the more conservative one.  Isakson is very soft on abortion, so he's out, in my view - I really hope he doesn't get the nomination b/c I'd hate to have to vote for him.  That being said, I believe any Republican candidate would win here, in a state where Bush gets at least a 60% approval rating.

[jravnsbo]

Any polls out there yet?

How is Hermain Cain on the issues and does he have a chance at all?

Oh, Cain would be a great senator.  Actually, he's my favorite of the three running, Collins being second and Isakon third.  The problem is, Cain doesn't have a chance at the nomination.  My whole thing is, I don't want Isakson to win, so my only option to derail him is to vote for Collins, who does have a chance at the nom...which isn't a bad thing b/c I like him too.

[jravnsbo]

I agree.  There are many Democrats organizing hoping to stop dean first.  He seems to be growing about as hated as Bush among many democrats.

A country can be polarized even though one party has a lear majority, I thought of it more as the "hate-level" than anything else.

I was referring to geographical polarization rather than anything else, basically that certain states are Dem enough to go Dem even if Bush wins big, making the probability of a McGovernstyled landslide lower.

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Yeah, you're right about that.  I've just seen all kinds of political commentators and analysts on TV talking about how close the election is going to be because we're such a polarized nation and I just don't see that there's much evidence to support that.  But to the extent that there is a significant minority--though still vastly outnumbered--who hates Bush.  In that sense, we are more polarized than we have been since Richard Nixon.  But we are not evenly divided.

[jravnsbo]

Well repeal of the steel tariffs actually HELPS Michigan.  They do not produce as much steel as they buy and consume a lot of steel, ie the auto industry for a big one.

Once again, Daschle will not lose.  Thune lost to Johnson by 500 votes or so, and the only thing that saved Johnson was Dashcle's support.  Thune *should* run for SD's open House seat, as he would have a far greater chance at winning that.

President: Bush defeats Dean about 51-47%, with the toher third candidates splitting hte vote.  Bush picks up Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and New Mexico.  That calculates into a 334-204 Bush win.  But after Bush make a "pig's ear" of it in his second term, the Republicans will have to go moderate with a Giuliani or McCain candidacy.

GOP makes moderate gains in Gubernatorial, Senate, and house races.

Again, what would your predictions/percentages be for a Bush v. Clark campaign? I think the figures would be a lot closer. And how on earth do you think Bush will win Michigan? His repeal of the Steel Tariffs would prevent Michigan from giving Bush their state.

[jravnsbo]

Bush would still be favored and is ahead in fact in all polls in head to head vs clark.

Clark Bush is probably 50-48% or so.