North Korea declares War on South Korea

[Cory]

I'd assume that Kim Jong-un is trying to act like a tough guy to cement his position within the upper echelons of power in North Korea.  He's staring down the USA to prove to the generals that he's a serious person or something.

This. We must remember that a 28 (?) year old is vying to be the Supreme Leader of a nation with a culture build around seniority. He has to prove himself to the Old Guard. The Rocket test, the nuclear test, all of it I think is part of a forced crisis that Jong-Un will use to bolster his credibility with the hardliners, and give the people a crisis to rally around the new young leader.

[Cory]

Do we think the PLA amassing on the border is a good sign or a bad one.

A good one I think. They are there to either...

A.) Contain the massive flow of refugees from North Korea in the case of war.

or

B.) Invade North Korea if they use nuclear weapons.

[Cory]

As noted above, the Pentagon readily admits that North Korea will eventually have the ability to deliver ICBMs. That means they'll be as much of a threat to the U.S. as the Soviet Union was during it's heydey.

This is just silly.

All because North Korea could launch a couple ICBMS at a few areas on the West Coast doesn't put them on par with the USSR capable of launching thousands of missiles and completely destroying out America as we know it.

You're really being an alarmist on this whole North Korea issue.

[Cory]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZV_lIwmz5E

This does nothing to validate your point. The threat posed by North Korea is not at all comparable to the threat posed by the USSR. That was an absurd comparison you made and it is factually wrong.

[Cory]

LOL, how can a comparison be factually wrong when no facts were even asserted, except ones that haven't been disputed? I treat 10 million people on the West Coast being wiped out and 100 million people on all coasts being wiped out similarly. Both of them fall into the category of "worst possible scenario" to me.

You said that North Korea could be "as much of a threat" as the USSR. This is absurd. Do you really think the consequences of a massive 1,000+ missile strike on the USA by the USSR circa 1985 is "just as bad" as two or three strikes on the West Coast?

[Cory]

Also, keep in mind that I've already conceded to the most ultra-conservative estimates, as defined by you. In reality, North Korea likely has a lot more than 3 warheads

Yes, but can they miniaturize and shape these warheads to be fitted on missiles effectively?

Once North Korea develops the long-range missile re-entry capability of warhead delivery, there is no limit to how many rockets it could build. Let's take a mid-point between the estimate given above, and a minimum of zero, and suppose NK eventually builds 40 nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Now we're talking about 40 million, rather than 5 million. Either way, it's certainly comparable to a Soviet strike circa 1985.

You really think the USA or even China will allow North Korea to build up a seriously powerful ICBM force? Keep in mind these NK rockets are going to be of lower quality and probably few of them will actually be able to reach the West Coast. Also, even 40 nukes would not compare to a massive Soviet strike circa 1985.